(By Thomas Sowell): Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes said that a good catch phrase could stop thinking for 50 years. One of the often-repeated catch phrases of our time — “It’s the economy, stupid!” — has already stopped thinking in some quarters for a couple of decades.
There is no question that the state of the economy can affect elections. But there is also no iron law that all elections will be decided by the state of the economy.
President Franklin D. Roosevelt was re-elected for an unprecedented third term after two terms in which unemployment was in double digits for eight consecutive years.
We may lament the number of people who are unemployed or who are on food stamps today. But those who give the Obama administration credit for coming to their rescue when they didn’t have a job are likely to greatly outnumber those who blame the administration for their not having a job in the first place.
An expansion of the welfare state in hard times seems to have been the secret of FDR’s great political success in the midst of economic disaster. An economic study published in a scholarly journal in 2004 concluded that the Roosevelt administration’s policies prolonged the Great Depression by several years. But few people read economic studies.
This economy has been sputtering along through most of the Obama administration, with the unemployment rate hovering around 9 percent. But none of that means that Barack Obama is going to lose the 2012 election.
Even polls which show “any Republican” with more public support than Obama does not mean that Obama will lose.
The president is not going to run against “any Republican.” He is going to run against some specific Republican, and that Republican can expect to be attacked, denounced and denigrated for months on end before the November 2012 elections — not only by the Democrats, but also by the media that is heavily pro-Democrat.
We have already seen how unsubstantiated allegations from women with questionable histories have dropped Herman Cain from front runner to third place in just a couple of weeks.
In short, it takes a candidate to beat a candidate, and everything depends on what kind of candidate that is.
The smart money inside the Beltway says that the Republicans need to pick a moderate candidate who can appeal to independent voters, not just to the conservative voters who turn out to vote in Republican primaries. Those who think this way say that you have to “reach out” to Hispanics, the elderly and other constituencies.
What is remarkable is how seldom the smart money folks look at what has actually been happening in presidential elections.
Ronald Reagan won two landslide elections when he ran as Ronald Reagan. Vice President George H.W. Bush then won when he ran as if he were another Ronald Reagan, with his famous statement, “Read my lips, no new taxes.”
But after Bush 41 was elected and turned “kinder and gentler” — to everyone except the taxpayers — he lost to an unknown governor from a small state.
Other Republican presidential candidates who went the “moderate” route — Bob Dole and John McCain — also came across as neither fish nor fowl, and also went down to defeat.
Now the smart money inside the Beltway is saying that Mitt Romney, who is nothing if not versatile in his positions, is the Republicans’ best hope for replacing Obama.
If conservative Republicans split their votes among a number of conservative candidates in the primaries, that can mean ending up with a presidential candidate in the Bob Dole-John McCain mold — and risking a Bob Dole-John McCain result in the next election.
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Bruce Feher says,
Come on Joe! The GOP establishment always blows it…
on 17 November 2011 / 4:24 PM
Lizelot says,
It’s a fact that voters tend to be ignorant of what truly matters and are easily manipulated by means of hand-outs (actually money taken from their neighbors and kin) and promises. I suspect that RINOs know full well that promoting a moderate candidate will hand the election to the Progressives, but since they belong to that group anyway, they don’t lose, do they? It’s the conservatives and the patriots who lose, even though they are said to be in the majority. To turn this trend around, we need to PURGE the GOP of wolves in sheep clothing, i.e. RINOs, and put genuine conservative Republicans in charge. There is no other way. It is us or them. We must NOT allow ourselves to be fooled again. No more Rino’s or so-called moderates, i.e. wafflers, fence-sitters. Another wannabe McCain, another defeat! Also, let’s not be persuaded that a tiny but vocal libertarian minority is the answer either. Dr. Ron Paul has SOME good proposals, but I doubt he can prevail in the end if only because of his advanced age and frail persona, which will undoubtedly be hammered on just as with McCain. This is just common sense.
on 17 November 2011 / 5:42 PM
Trish Gaskins says,
Ron Paul has been voting to uphold the constitution for 30 years. What does it matter that he is 79 – he is healthy. The people will only pay him $39,000 a year in salary and no pension (over 80). Just as long as he chooses a true conservative running mate, we are in like flint! I’m thinking Bachmann or Palin. Politicians sometimes say what they think you want to hear but not Paul, he has the steel spine to follow thru, too.
on 19 November 2011 / 10:40 PM
DakotaMel says,
I like Cain and I like Bachmann, but in the end, I will probably vote for the primary candidate most likely to beat Romney in the primary – even if that’s Newt. Unlike you, I think Romney can beat Obama (by a super thin margin) but I don’t think he’ll be good for this country.
on 17 November 2011 / 6:22 PM
William Peck 1958 says,
Dakota, agreed on all points.
on 18 November 2011 / 1:22 PM
Bruce Feher says,
The Democrats are eating this stuff up with a spoon!
Keep your eye on the ball people! DEFEAT THE LEFT!
on 17 November 2011 / 8:49 PM
Archie says,
I get real tired of hearing that only Romney can beat the illegal in the whitehouse. While I think that a trained monkey can beat maobama I am supporting Newt because he has the experience and it will take an experienced and a tough man to overthrow the evil done by the Kenyan.
I would love to see Newt/Santorum with John Bolton as Sec of State and Allen West as Sec of Defense and Michelle Bachmann as Att.General. How about adding Joe Arpiao as Homeland Security?
on 18 November 2011 / 9:33 AM
William Peck 1958 says,
In 1957, the Czech Communist Party (headed by Jan Koziak) explained how a small number of communists managed to gain power. The trick was to exert pressure for radical change from two directions simultaneously – from the upper levels of government and from provocateurs in the streets.
One way to exert pressure from below was to “fill the streets with rioters, strikers, and protestors, thus creating the ILLUSION of a widespread clamor for change from the grassroots.
Sound familiar ?
OWS = straight out of the playbook, but think of the useful idiots who participated, and those who report on it.
on 18 November 2011 / 1:27 PM
Bill says,
Who does Joe think would be the best candidate?
on 18 November 2011 / 7:40 PM
Anne Hansen says,
Obama is the first president in history to have so many votes in his pocket before the race begins. He’s got unions, environmentalists, the entitlement crowd. 95% of the black community, most if not all of the gay and lesbian community and all those far left Hollywood types. This will be a hard battle to be sure. The worst thing that can happen is for the various groups of republicans to decide not to vote if their candidate of choice doesn’t win the nomination. Not conservative enough or the wrong religion is what some are saying. For everyone who doesn’t vote you are casting a vote for Obama. You cannot possibly believe he’s a better choice. Anyone of our candidates would make a better president. Get out and vote republican regardless of who our candidate is or kiss your country good bye. I hope no one is that selfish or unpatriotic.
on 18 November 2011 / 11:53 PM
J.M.R. says,
romneys just liberal claiming to be a repub.
on 19 November 2011 / 4:54 AM