University of Colorado Election Forecast Model Continues to Predict Solid Romney Win

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes — down five votes from their initial prediction — and short of the 270 needed to win.


The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

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  • Nathan

    So, this model has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1980, even Bush vs. Gore in 2000. Let us pray to God that it stays accurate in 2012. They state, though, that they cannot account for 50-50 states that can be pushed in one direction or another by some unforeseen force. I think they could have added the words, “such as election fraud.” If that happens, there could be huge demonstrations and near riots. Homeland Security might just break out some of those billion hollow point bullets they just purchased.

  • tomtom

    No REAL AMERICAN will vote for Barack Hussein Obama!!!
    It will be a LANDSLIDE for MITT and PAUL !!!!

    • Don’t avoid voting thinking Romney will have enough votes to win without your vote… Obama cannot win on November 6th – Romney must win to save this country.To All Americans – think about who you are voting for before you go into that voting booth…. You see what Obama has done in the last 4 years and it is NOT good. He wants to continue down the same road…..America cannot survive another 4 years of Obama without major destruction to our economy and military. Vote Obama out. Save America. PLEASE….