If Romney Supporters Don’t Vote in Record Numbers, Obama Will Win-Page 4

Missouri
Recent polling shows the embattled but staunchly conservative Todd Akin well within striking distance of Claire McCaskill. This is a state Romney should win by as many as 10 points, and I think that will be enough coat-tails to carry Akin across the finish line. Prediction: Republican

Montana
Republican Denny Rehberg just pulled ahead of his Democrat opponent in the RCP average, and he should benefit from Romney coat-tails as well. Prediction: Republican

Nevada
Republican Dean Heller has led most of the way here in the RCP average, but he’s up against the Harry Reid political machine. Prediction: Republican

North Dakota
It’s an open seat in a Republican state that Romney will win handily. Prediction: Republican

Virginia
This race has become as close as the presidential race, so I don’t think either candidate will receive any coat-tails. I’ll go with Tim Kaine on likability here. Prediction: Democrat

Wisconsin
No credible polling currently has former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson in the lead, and unless Romney has a surprise surge I don’t expect that to change on Election Day. Prediction: Democrat

Barring any unforeseen upsets, I think the U.S. Senate will remain in Democrat hands—but just barely:

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 49
Independents: 1

Iowa
I believe Obama’s early voting advantage in my home state will be too much for Romney to overcome, but if my scenario holds but I’m wrong about Iowa, then we end up in the doomsday scenario of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College.

Little Birdies tell me the Republicans could actually add to their 60-seat majority in the 100-seat Iowa House. Republicans are also expected to claim the majority in the State Senate from the Democrats, and little birdies have told me they are expecting the GOP to end up with 28-30 seats in the 50-seat chamber. Remember four years ago the GOP only had 18 seats in that chamber. One of those seats the Republicans think they can realistically pick up is none other than powerful Democrat Leader Mike Gronstal’s, the man that has singlehandedly thwarted every good piece of legislation from becoming law for the past four years.

Every little birdie I talk to expects Iowans to make David Wiggins the fourth State Supreme Court Justice to be fired by voters for his role in the controversial and unpopular Varnum v. Brien opinion.

Little birdies are also confident the GOP can win three of the state’s four Congressional seats: Steve King, Tom Latham, and John Archer.

Marriage
The issue of marriage is 32-0 when it’s on the ballot, and remains the only undefeated issue in American politics. However, little birdies tell me they’re not confident that streak will continue with marriage on the ballot in four states that Obama is expected to win. I’m told pro-marriage forces are confident they can win Minnesota and Maryland, but not as confident about Maine and Washington.

Conclusion
For Mitt Romney to win the presidency, the polling in the Real Clear Politics average has to be historically wrong and biased. Frankly, to make the race as close as I’m making it is already giving Romney the benefit of the doubt on several fronts.

The most likely scenario is voters giving both parties something to feel good about with a split decision that includes Obama being re-elected—albeit narrowly.

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