A revealing survey by Pew Research Center, ‘Europe’s Growing Muslim Population’, looks at the future of the 25.8 million Muslims currently residing in European countries. Citing a comprehensive swath of data, it is an attempt to see how the size of Europe’s Muslim population may change in the coming decades, depending on levels of migration.
All three scenarios – zero, moderate and high – considered by researchers produced a thought-provoking outcome: the number of Muslims in Europe will rise at any rate of migration, as they are younger and “have higher fertility (one child more per woman, on average) than other Europeans, mirroring a global pattern.”
Under a first, “zero migration” scenario, the Muslim population of Europe still would be expected to rise from the current level of 4.9 percent to 7.4 percent (roughly 36 million) by the year 2050 even “if all migration into Europe were to immediately and permanently stop.”
These four maps show estimated Muslim populations in Europe in 2016, and projections for 2050 in zero migration, medium migration and high migration scenarios: https://t.co/52uWlFfSJh pic.twitter.com/mcDbWjuB5d
— Pew Research Religion (@PewReligion) November 29, 2017
A second, “medium” migration scenario assumes that the flows of refugees stop, but “regular” migrants continue to come for reasons other than fleeing wars and instability. Under these conditions, Muslims could comprise 11.2 percent (59 million) of Europe’s population in 2050.
In a third, “high” migration scenario, the heavy influx of predominantly Muslim migrants recorded between 2014 and 2016 continues indefinitely. In this case, Muslims could make up 14 percent (75 million) of Europe’s population by 2050 – nearly triple the current figure. (Read more from “Muslim Population to Triple in Europe by 2050” HERE)