What Are the Odds Republicans Keep the House, Senate? Here Are the Latest Numbers.
By Daily Wire. So what are the odds that Republicans maintain control of the House and the Senate? According to the most recent polling analysis by Nate Silver, the odds shake out to look almost exactly the same, but flipped.
The Senate is looking increasingly likely to remain in the control of the Republicans, who currently have 50 “safe” Senate seats and narrow leads in three of the six “tossup” races, according to Real Clear Politics’ average of the key polls. According to Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Republicans have a 5 in 6 chance (82.4%) of maintaining control of the Senate, giving the Democrats just a 1 in 6 chance (17.6%) of taking over.
Silver projects Republicans to end up with 52 seats and Democrats with 48, a net gain of one seat for Republicans and one seat more than is needed for the 51-seat majority. Silver currently gives Republicans an 80% chance of gaining up to four seats or losing up to two, and just a 10% chance that they gain more than four or lose more than two.
With their Senate hopes slipping away, Democrats are increasingly looking to the House as their best chance at wresting at least one chamber of Congress out of the hands of the GOP. And, unlike with the Senate, the Democrats’ odds of doing so are looking pretty good. In fact, they’re looking almost exactly as good as the Republicans’ chances of keeping the Senate.
Real Clear Politics’ poll averages currently show Democrats with 205 seats that are “safely” blue, including 14 that are “likely” to go their way and 18 that “lean” Democrat. (Read more from “What Are the Odds Republicans Keep the House, Senate? Here Are the Latest Numbers.” HERE)
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Rick Scott Battles the Pollsters in Florida Senate Race
By Politico. Florida governors expect a boost in public opinion surveys after managing a natural disaster, but so far Rick Scott has received no appreciable bump after Hurricane Michael. In three consecutive Senate polls released after the governor earned wall-to-wall media coverage for managing the storm, Scott trails Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson.
Scott’s team isn’t buying it. His campaign excoriated Quinnipiac University’s survey Monday showing Nelson with a large lead of 6 points, and argued instead that the governor is in fact leading by 5 points.
The poll-truthing, however, revealed a deeper concern that’s long gnawed at some Republicans — including GOP donors from Scott’s well-heeled hometown of Naples: Scott should be doing far better given his cash advantage over Nelson.
“A lot of these people are essentially neighbors of Gov. Scott,” said Trey Radel, a former Republican congressman from Naples who’s a political consultant and radio show host. “And the fear they have — and that they keep expressing — is that Gov. Scott, like his first election, has loads of money that he has pumped in and that these donors have given, and yet Rick maintained only a small lead even before these polls came out with Nelson [ahead]. And they believe he should be burying Bill Nelson in the polls.” (Read more from “Rick Scott Battles the Pollsters in Florida Senate Race” HERE)
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