. . .I’m here to tell you that Trump is even closer to winning reelection now than he was at the end of last year. I am not alone in this observation. The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter is seeing the playing field much the same way I am.
Heading into 2020, Trump’s primary strengths remain incumbency — since 1900, nearly 80 percent of incumbent presidents have been reelected — and the economy. Since FDR, every incumbent president, “who has avoided a recession in the lead-up to an election year was re-elected.” A trade truce or deal with China will most likely ensure a recession does not occur before next November.
Contrarians point to national polls and the slew of battleground state surveys, including Florida, and argue Trump is losing “bigly” to a handful of candidates and is therefore toast. The situation is certainly not ideal for Trump, but early polling from previous presidential tilts suggests the media and anti-Trump forces are getting way ahead of themselves. Who can forget that in June of 1983, eventual Democratic nominee Walter Mondale was leading President Ronald Regan by 10 points or that in June of 2011 a generic Republican presidential candidate was leading President Obama by 5 points? . . .
So what does Trump need to do to win reelection? His team can start by taking a page out of the 2012 Obama campaign playbook — and that is precisely what the Trump campaign is doing.
As Obama 2012 campaign aide Ben LaBolt points out, recent successful incumbent presidents prevailed “by executing a two-year campaign to exploit a contentious primary on the other side, reconnect with their base of supporters, and define the election as a choice, not a referendum.” After all, who can forget Mitt Romney being labeled a serial dog-abuser long before he received the 2012 Republican presidential nomination as a result of once taking a family trip with the dog riding in its crate on the car roof? (Read more from “Trump Is Still on Track to Win 2020” HERE)