Trump on Way to Easy Win in 2020, According to Historically Accurate Election Model

. . .According to one model that has been historically accurate, President Trump appears to be on his way to to an easy victory.

Moody’s Analytics uses three different economic models to predict the outcome of political races: “how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure, and the prospects for unemployment,” CNBC reports. “The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.”

“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “It’s about turnout.” . . .

“Our ‘pocket¬book’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report says. “This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”

Under the stock market model, Trump would win with a 289-249 vote. The unemployment model gives Trump a 332-206 win. Using all three models combined, Trump wins 324-214. (Read more from “Trump on Way to Easy Win in 2020, According to Historically Accurate Election Model” HERE)

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