A Splash Or A Wave? A First Look At The 2014 U.S. Senate Races

The GOP has been struggling to recapture the Senate majority for nearly a decade. Now, the sixth year itch, a plethora of vulnerable red-state Democrats, and Obamacare’s unpopularity appear to be forming a perfect storm – if the Republicans want it.

Six years ago, the Democrats were riding high: after winning the Senate back two years prior amidst scandals and the Iraq War, they improved their gains greatly, coming within a seat of a supermajority (which then-Republican Senator Arlen Specter happily granted just a few months later). This was accomplished with a mix of reasonably close overthrows of sitting Republicans (Sununu, Stevens, Coleman, and Smith), a wider rebuke of another (Dole), and picking up three seats vacated by retiring GOPers (Warner, Domenici, and Allard). Despite holding several seats in Republican territory, the popularity of incumbents Pryor, Landrieu, Baucus, Johnson and Rockefeller assured the Democrats that the Great Blue Wave would see no consolation prizes for the Republicans.

My, how things have changed.

Red State Democrats: an endangered species?

When the GOP flubbed the 2012 races in North Dakota, Missouri, Montana and Indiana, it seemed as if strong Democratic personalities still had a shot despite the growing unpopularity of the President in the red states. So long as the GOP picked either delusional or lackluster candidates, being a Democrat in a state that would break hard for Romney wasn’t necessarily a death sentence. One could hope for an Akin to rant about magical uteri, or a Berg to win their party’s nomination and, well, apparently forget to campaign.

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