By Daniel Davis. How the Ukraine War Will End: In the heady days of September and October, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) won remarkable military victories over the Russian invaders, recapturing thousands of square miles of territory. Many in the West interpreted those successes as “irreversible” proof Kyiv was on its way to victory, and thus there was no need to consider a negotiated settlement with Moscow. The stark, cold realities of modern warfare, however, reveal that to the contrary, there is no end to the war in sight, and the most likely case remains – however unpopular in the Western world – a negotiated settlement.
The only question that remains: how many more Ukrainians must die before this harsh reality is grasped by the leaders of both warring parties?
There are a great many in the United States and the Western world that genuinely does believe Kyiv can win its war with Moscow and eventually drive all of Putin’s forces back to Russia. Last week Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his longstanding boast that his forces would “definitely liberate Crimea.” Former four-star U.S. general Ben Hodges predicted that by the end of this year, the UAF would “push Russian troops back to positions” they held prior to the start of the war and “by the middle of next year Ukrainians will be in Crimea.” . . .
I wrote last Spring that the combat fundamentals of war favored Russia over Ukraine, despite the fact they had recently been driven out of Kyiv and Kharkiv. Nothing in the intervening months have altered the strategic balance. Most wars throughout history swing back and forth, with each side winning some battles, rarely producing a steady trend towards a conclusive outcome.
The ultimate winners, however, are almost always determined by which side has the most fundamentals in its favor. Moreover, success in war usually turns on factors outside of the battlefield. A 2008 U.S. Army War College report notes that “war is a political act,” implying that “tactical or operational victory without favorable political outcomes is sterile.” (Read more from “There Is Only 1 Way the Ukraine War Can End” HERE)
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Putin Issues Ominous Warning About Major Attack on Key Ukrainian City
By Newsweek. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that civilians in Kherson must be “removed” from the city as a battle for it could be coming soon.
“Now, of course, those who live in Kherson must be removed from the zone of the most dangerous actions,” the Russian leader said, adding that citizens “must not suffer” from attacks in the city, according to The Moscow Times.
Putin’s comments come as Russian troops have reportedly abandoned checkpoints in the occupied Ukrainian region of Kherson in recent days. In addition, Russian flags have been removed from the administration building in Kherson, as well as a city council building, according to reports.
However, the Ukrainian military has said that Russia’s withdrawal from the area could be a tactic to catch them off guard. (Read more from “Putin Issues Ominous Warning About Major Attack on Key Ukrainian City” HERE)
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