Miller and Begich in Dead Heat According Facebook Modeling Used to Predict Election Outcomes

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Photo Credit: InTheCapital

Photo Credit: InTheCapital

Thanks to Facebook’s prominence (there are over 128 million active monthly users in the U.S.) it has become the perfect sample pool for researchers conducting large scale studies. Particularly the social media platform has given political strategists a fascinating glimpse on how political campaigns are being perceived in real time, as well as the ability to predict election outcomes with startling accuracy. Campaigns themselves are also starting to better understand this correlation, with 12 percent of campaign communication budgets going to social media in 2012. So what is Facebook so far telling us about the critical 2014 elections?

In a piece published by POLITICO Magazine, Ph.D. candidates Matthew MacWilliams and Edward Erickson, along with research assistant Nicole Berns, took a look at what Facebook reveals about the political changes to come in 2014. These scholars studied three major variables to make their predictions. First, the growth of a candidate’s fan base, measured by the number of “likes” over time on their page. Next they look at the growth of engagement, measured by the shares and comments on the candidates content that users share with their friends. Lastly, they divide these two factors to discover the candidate’s effectiveness in mobilizing voters, by seeing how many of those that “like” the candidate actually engage with others about it.

Based on this formula, the researchers predicted the outcome of four Senate races in 2014, taking place in North Carolina, Alaska, Kentucky and Michigan, and conclude that the Republicans will likely pick up a seat this year…

The big upset could happen in Alaska, where this Facebook model has incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Begich dead even with both of his Republican challengers, Joe Miller and Mead Treadwell.

Read more from this story HERE.

When a Democrat Lies, it’s Never an Actual Lie

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Photo Credit: Daily Caller

Photo Credit: Daily Caller

Ever notice that? When a Dem gets caught red-handed telling a lie, it’s very, very rare for the media to actually call it a lie. Even Obama’s monumental whopper — “If you like your plan, you can keep your plan” — still has its diehard defenders.

This week’s example is Texas state senator, gubernatorial candidate, and heroine of abortion enthusiasts across the country: Wendy Davis. As it turns out, she’s said a bunch of stuff about her past that isn’t true.

Well, she’s a politician. It’s to be expected. But she’s also a Democrat who’s championing one of the left’s most treasured policy goals, abortion on demand, so she must be protected.

Read more from this story HERE.

White House Drug Czar Contradicts Obama on Impact of Marijuana Use

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Photo Credit: Washington Times

Photo Credit: AP

President Obama’s latest claims about marijuana are contradicted by research and official positions of the Office of National Drug Control Policy, which is part of the White House. And Mr. Obama’s words have anti-drug leaders worried about negative repercussions among youth.

Mr. Obama claimed to The New Yorker magazine that marijuana is no worse than cigarettes or alcohol and he promoted state efforts by Colorado and Washington to legalize marijuana, which remains illegal under federal law.

The National Drug Control Policy’s official stance, posted on the whitehouse.gov website, says the opposite of Mr. Obama on all counts.

For example, as documented in agency reports, marijuana smoke has significantly more carcinogens than tobacco smoke.

And as reported by the government’s National Institute on Drug Abuse, adolescent use of marijuana does something that alcohol does not; it causes permanent brain damage, including lowering of I.Q.

Read more from this story HERE.

NSA Ops ‘Walk in Park’ Next to Plans to Track Kids

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Photo Credit: WND

Photo Credit: WND

The spying on Americans by the National Security Agency and the Internal Revenue Service’s attacks on conservative groups are “like a walk in the park” compared to government plans to track school children, says a prominent national education researcher, analyst and Johns Hopkins-trained pediatrician.

Dr. Karen Effrem, president of the national watchdog group, Education Liberty Watch, is sounding an alarm about Common Core, the federal education standards that almost all states are adopting by accepting federal “Race to the Top” funding.

Under Common Core, Effrem said, students’ personal information increasingly is being collected, measured and assessed while the standards shift the focus away from academics and toward psychological training and testing of personal attitudes and behaviors.

Jane Robbins, senior fellow with the American Principles Project and a Common Core expert, shares Effrem’s concerns.

She said an agreement between a group that develops the Common Core tests and the DOE requires the consortium to give the DOE “complete access to any and all data collected at the state level.”

Read more from this story HERE.

Deep Freeze in Midwest, Northeast to Be Prolonged

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Photo Credit: AccuWeather

Photo Credit: AccuWeather

Bitterly cold air is again settling southward from the Arctic into a large part of the Eastern states. Unlike the outbreak from early January, this time the cold will have more staying power.

Into the first part of next week, the polar vortex will hover just north of the United States border causing waves of frigid air to blast into the Midwest and much of the East.

The polar vortex is a commonly used term among the meteorological community to describe an intense storm with frigid air and strong winds that spends much of its time above the Arctic Circle. Occasionally, during the autumn, winter and spring, this storm can dip farther south, approaching the mid-latitudes.

The first of several waves of arctic air will continue to advance to the south Wednesday.

Read more from this story HERE.

What You Can Do At The March For Life

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As you know, the March for Life and the pro-life movement are never reported by most of the media accurately. This year, the March for Life is sponsoring a “TweetFest” to encourage pro-lifers at the March or around the country to show their support for life on Twitter to amplify our message, using the hashtag, #WhyWeMarch. Click on the image below for more information.

whywemarchtweetfest

Additionally, we’re partnering with EWTN Productions to bring you LIVE 360o video footage of the rally and March for Life that anyone will be able to watch online, on Facebook, or on the March for Life app. The March for Life app will be ready for download from iTunes and Google Play shortly before the March and will feature important resources for your trip to Washington, D.C. for the March for Life, but also educational resources, and advocacy tools to help you make a difference for life all year long.

We are also excited to share that you can stay in touch year-round with the March for Life through mobile alerts. You can sign up HERE to receive messages from the March for Life about pro-life events, advocacy action items, education opportunities, and later this year, information about the 2015 March for Life.

Will you be bringing your video camera to the March for Life? We also wanted to let you know about an opportunity with the Media Research Center. See below for how you can participate in a documentary about the March for Life.

There’s so much you can do to participate in this important event – whether you are physically present or supporting us from home! There are many opportunities for unity and collaboration in bringing attention to the March for Life so that we can one day see an end to abortion in America.

From Media Research Center:

In 2013, the networks spent a mere 17 seconds on the half million participants at the 40th March for Life (in comparison, they spent 521 times more on the Manti Te’o football scandal). The life censorship only continued with the trial of Kermit Gosnell and beyond. Simply put, the old media fear giving pro-lifers the coverage a movement of this size and vitality deserves.

In response, MRC will produce a film from a compilation of amateur March for Life footage. If you plan to attend the March as an individual, with a church group or other organization, please document your experience and allow us to share it with the world. Press release below:

MRC March for Life Documentary Submission

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: January 9, 2014

CONTACT: Katie Yoder at [email protected]

The Media Research Center (MRC), in conjunction with national pro-life organizations, is producing a documentary on the March for Life to fight against the media censorship on abortion — and we need your help! To pull this off, we’re asking pro-lifers to contribute by donating their footage preparing for/attending the 41st March for Life in Washington, D.C.

Who: YOU (the pro-life movement)

What: A campaign by the Media Research Center’s Culture and Media Institute (CMI) to unite the pro-life movement by creating a documentary from clips by pro-lifers across the nation preparing for and attending the 41st March for Life.

How: Take footage with your camera or phone and send it to us through Google Drive (for those who have Gmail) or upload to YouTube and email us the link at [email protected]!

What we’re looking for:

* Footage of you and/or your friends looking into the camera (either individually or as a group) and saying, “I am pro-life.”

* Footage of you and your friends briefly saying why you are pro-life or why you are attending the March

* Behind-the-scenes footage of you and/or your group preparing for/attending the March. This can include footage of creating signs, your bus ride into D.C., planning meetings, marching to the Supreme Court, etc. Be creative!

Deadline: We will begin compiling videos as soon as the March finishes. Please send your footage no later than January 29, 2014. MRC will publish the documentary online.

Last request: Please tell your family/friends to submit their footage too by sharing this release via Twitter, Facebook, Pinterest and other social media mediums.

Please direct comments and questions to Katie Yoder at [email protected] or post your inquiries to our Facebook page.

DISCLAIMER: By submitting video, each participant agrees to the MRC’s use of participant’s information and video footage. Each participant also agrees that he/she originally owns all rights to his/her video. The MRC does not guarantee the use of every video submitted.

The Media Research Center, the nation’s premier media watchdog, is a research and education organization operating under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code.

View the live stream link HERE.

— Katie Yoder is Staff Writer, Joe and Betty Anderlik Fellow in Culture and Media at the Media Research Center.

Seven Devastating, Inescapable Economic Facts for America

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Photo Credit: Natural News

Photo Credit: Natural News

The stock market appears to be doing better and some companies are hiring again. Meanwhile, home prices have risen somewhat, banks are beginning to lend again and the jobless rate is the lowest it has been in about five years.

Things are finally looking up – right?

Um, not so much.

On the outside, the U.S. economy appears to be recovering from dramatic lows just a few years ago, when the country was navigating through one of its worst financial crises in history. But before you pop the cork on the champagne bottle and celebrate, there are seven things you need to understand about the real state of the economy that don’t bode well for our future, if they remain unchanged:

— Nearly 92 million Americans have dropped completely out of the workforce, and no, it’s not because an unusually large number of us are retiring. According to the Labor Department, the latest figures show that a record 91.8 million Americans are no longer in the labor force, which helps explain last month’s .3-percent drop in the unemployment rate (it wasn’t because hundreds of thousands of Americans found jobs). As reported by Breitbart News, “to be included in the Labor Department’s calculations for this statistic, a person must be 16 years or older, a civilian, not in an institution (such as prison), and someone who has not looked for a job in the last four weeks.”

Read more from this story HERE.

Why Joe Miller Could Pull Off An Upset Against The GOP Establishment, Again

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Photo Credit: People's Pundit Daily

Photo Credit: People’s Pundit Daily

I rarely, if ever, revisit my Senate predictions on PeoplesPunditDaily.com for purposes of clarification rather than rating changes. However, after several discussions with campaign operatives in various camps, conservative Super PAC spokesmen, as well as further analysis of the Republican establishment’s strength in terms of support among Alaska Republican voters, this article is clearly warranted.

In my last look at the race, entitled “Alaska Senate Race Rating And Analysis Bodes Bad For Begich,” which is currently rated “Leans Republican” on the 2014 Senate Map, I gave a general assessment of the race and the political landscape. And to make a long story short, despite the bias fantasies held by other so-called objective pundits, I confidently concluded that it is more likely than not that election night is going to be a miserable night for Senator Mark Begich.

At this point, the only variable keeping the Alaska Senate race from moving farther to the right on the rating spectrum is the Republican primary, which we will now examine in more detail. With Gov. Sean Parnell deciding to stay out of the race, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell made his bid known almost immediately. Treadwell has already attacked the 2010 Republican Senate nominee Joe Miller, saying “I believe I don’t scare people. Joe does sometimes.”

Treadwell, no doubt, is the establishment candidate and was their first pick, but he will have to share the GOP country club with another establishment candidate. Former Natural Resources Commissioner and Attorney General Dan Sullivan is the second-tier establishment candidate, but ironically seems to have the money advantage. Alaska’s Energy, America’s Values, which is headed up by political consultant Art Hackney and backs Dan Sullivan, already spent about $12,000 to air ads in Anchorage and Matanuska Valley.

There is a real potential for a reverse vote splitting phenomena to play out that inevitably will benefit Joe Miller. That is, typically establishment Republican candidates win primaries because the conservative vote is split between 2 or more anti-establishment candidates. In the Alaska Senate race the opposite is true, and it is conceivable to see how under the right conditions Joe Miller could upset the GOP establishment on primary night, again.

Read more from this story HERE.

Guess What Group is Getting Food Stamps at an Alarming Rate

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Photo Credit: Newscom

Photo Credit: Newscom

Food stamp rolls have been growing rapidly. But what many may not realize is that participation among able-bodied adults without dependents (ABAWDs) has been skyrocketing compared to the total number of participants. That’s just one reason Congress should reform the food stamp program in the farm bill now under consideration. In just four years, the number of able-bodied adults without dependents (ABAWDs) on the food stamp rolls skyrocketed by over 2 million. While overall food stamp use grew by 53 percent between Fiscal Year 2007 and Fiscal Year 2010 (from about 26 million to nearly 40 million), it more than doubled among able-bodied adults without dependents during this time–from 1.7 million to 3.9 million–an increase of roughly 127 percent. Food stamp spending today is roughly $80 billion, double what it was in Fiscal Year 2008.

Going forward, food stamp policy should ensure that resources are going to those most in need — particularly at a time when budgets are tight for so many Americans Able-bodied recipients should be encouraged to work. This way, help is available to those who truly need it, while at the same time individuals are encouraged to do what they can to help themselves.

Congress has the opportunity now to reform food stamps as policymakers debate the farm bill. The House’s current proposal makes some steps towards encouraging work, but it is yet to be seen whether the House will maintain the work component of their proposal, or if they will fold on this important matter.

While the recession no doubt plays into the increases in food stamp participation, policy loopholes have opened the doors to boost growth as well In his 2009 stimulus bill, Obama allowed states to waive the modest ABAWD work provision (which says that after 3 months ABAWDs must work or perform some type of work activity for 20 hours per week to remain on food stamps).

With the work waivers in place, ABAWDs can stay on food stamps for an unlimited amount of time without working or preparing for work. Without a work requirement it is difficult to ensure food stamps are not going to those who could otherwise work. A work requirement acts as a gatekeeper: those who really need assistance can still get it, while those who may not really need it will be deterred, thus targeting resources to the truly needy. It also encourages individuals to move towards work, and it can provide job training and other employment help.

Self-sufficiency for able-bodied adults should be the goal of any sound welfare policy. Unfortunately, most of the government’s 80-plus welfare programs–including food stamps–aren’t focused in this direction.

Helping those in need means helping them rise above government dependence. Unfortunately, self-sufficiency seems to be kicked to the bottom of the list all too often when it comes to reforming the nation’s broken welfare system. It’s time for Congress to realize that helping individuals means a hand-up, not merely a handout.

This article originally appeared at Heritage.com and is re-published in full with the Heritage Foundation’s permission.

Obama Blames Low Approval Numbers on Racism

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Photo Credit: Human Events

Photo Credit: Human Events

Another triumph in post-racial healing from our Great Uniter of a President, delivered during a lengthy interview with the New Yorker:

Obama’s election was one of the great markers in the black freedom struggle. In the electoral realm, ironically, the country may be more racially divided than it has been in a generation. Obama lost among white voters in 2012 by a margin greater than any victor in American history. The popular opposition to the Administration comes largely from older whites who feel threatened, underemployed, overlooked, and disdained in a globalized economy and in an increasingly diverse country. Obama’s drop in the polls in 2013 was especially grave among white voters. “There’s no doubt that there’s some folks who just really dislike me because they don’t like the idea of a black President,” Obama said. “Now, the flip side of it is there are some black folks and maybe some white folks who really like me and give me the benefit of the doubt precisely because I’m a black President.” The latter group has been less in evidence of late.

“There is a historic connection between some of the arguments that we have politically and the history of race in our country, and sometimes it’s hard to disentangle those issues,” he went on. “You can be somebody who, for very legitimate reasons, worries about the power of the federal government—that it’s distant, that it’s bureaucratic, that it’s not accountable—and as a consequence you think that more power should reside in the hands of state governments. But what’s also true, obviously, is that philosophy is wrapped up in the history of states’ rights in the context of the civil-rights movement and the Civil War and Calhoun. There’s a pretty long history there. And so I think it’s important for progressives not to dismiss out of hand arguments against my Presidency or the Democratic Party or Bill Clinton or anybody just because there’s some overlap between those criticisms and the criticisms that traditionally were directed against those who were trying to bring about greater equality for African-Americans. The flip side is I think it’s important for conservatives to recognize and answer some of the problems that are posed by that history, so that they understand if I am concerned about leaving it up to states to expand Medicaid that it may not simply be because I am this power-hungry guy in Washington who wants to crush states’ rights but, rather, because we are one country and I think it is going to be important for the entire country to make sure that poor folks in Mississippi and not just Massachusetts are healthy.”

Let’s give the President credit for acknowledging that some measure of his support is based on racism, too. Voting for someone because of his skin color is racist, just as opposing someone primarily because of his skin color would be racist – a concept simple enough to grasp if we were talking about a white politician who received a good deal of unquestioning support because he was white. It’s equally unwise to vote for, or against, a candidate largely because of his race, without regard to his policies, performance in office, or other attributes. Campaigns for high political office are a terrible venue for the electorate to work out its racial hang-ups. Our modern government is too large for any voter to suspend his critical thinking skills and vote on any basis other than a relentless quest to find the best man or woman for the job.

Read more from this story HERE.