If Romney Supporters Don’t Vote in Record Numbers, Obama Will Win-Page 3

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For example, I think just as the RCP average back in 2008 underestimated the Obama wave in some states he was destined to win already, I anticipate a wave of anti-Obama sentiment in states like Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas that will reflect the wave Obama got in solidly blue states four years ago. I also don’t believe the Obama turnout will be the same as it was in 2008 in those solidly blue states.

Romney 49.8% (+1.5)
Obama 48.3%
Others 1.9%

I am buying at least some of the GOP spin Romney’s support is underrated. But understand that while many of you probably still think I’m underestimating Romney with this prediction, for me to predict Romney will out-poll the RCP average by more than a full point is already out on a limb.

Battleground States
There are no examples of a presidential candidate losing a battleground state when they’ve eclipsed 50% in the RCP average. There are only two battleground states in the RCP average where a candidate has eclipsed 50%:

Nevada: Obama
Wisconsin: Obama

There are several battleground states where the candidates are close to the magical 50% threshold in the RCP average:

Florida: Romney
Ohio: Obama
New Hampshire: Obama
North Carolina: Romney
Pennsylvania: Obama

In fact, the only two battleground states the RCP average missed in the past two election cycles were Hawaii and Wisconsin in 2004, and they had Bush ahead in both by less than one percent (Kerry won both). So if you’re looking for upsets in battleground states, you’re looking for states where the RCP margin is that close. Two states qualify this year:

Colorado: Obama +0.6%
Virginia: Obama +0.2%

Anticipating Romney’s support is somewhat underestimated I will give him the benefit of the doubt and put both of those states in his column. However, I definitely think it is possible Constitution Party candidate (and former Virginia Congressman) Virgil Goode could cost Romney Virginia, especially with Romney running pro-abortion television ads in the state.

Electoral College
RCP projects 201 Electoral College votes safe for Obama, and 191 safe for Romney.

The scenario I have laid out so far with the battleground states fits perfectly with why Romney is making a late play for Pennsylvania, because it appears they agree with the numbers I’m laying out there and believe it may be their only real way to get the 270 Electoral College votes required to win the election. However, to win Pennsylvania Romney will have to overcome a 3.9-point deficit in the RCP average, which there is no historical precedent for.

At this point the Electoral College – and thus the presidency – comes down to Ohio and Pennsylvania, two states where no credible polls at any point in this campaign have put Romney ahead. I think the two most likely outcomes in the Electoral College are:

Scenario A (65% chance)
Obama: 275
Romney: 263

Scenario B (35% chance)
Romney: 283
Obama: 255

Congress

I’m not going to go into an in-depth analysis of the House of Representatives since no credible data exists that suggests the Republicans won’t retain control of that chamber. On the other hand, the Senate is far more competitive.

RCP currently lists 8 seats as “toss-ups.” Five of them are in states I am projecting Romney to win, and three of them are in states I am projecting Obama to win. To get to 51, and thus the majority, Republicans need to win 7 of the 8 toss-ups.

Indiana
Richard Mourdock has come under fire for his recent pro-life comments, but this is still a Republican state and a state Romney will win comfortably providing coat-tails. Prediction: Republican

Massachusetts
Scott Brown just isn’t an entrenched enough incumbent to withstand an Obama rout at the top of the ballot of a solidly Democrat state. Prediction: Democrat

Read conclusion of story HERE.

If Romney Supporters Don’t Vote in Record Numbers, Obama Will Win-Page 2

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The day before the election the RCP average has Obama ahead by 0.5%, which means the race is essentially tied. However, the RCP average gives Obama the edge in 8 of its 10 toss-up states. In addition, there were 21 polls of various battleground states released on Saturday, and 16 of them had Obama ahead. Only two put Romney ahead, and the rest were tied. In fact, despite all the criticism from we conservatives of biased polling (and yes there is plenty), if you apply the methodology RCP uses to create its polling average to presidential elections state-by-state since 1988, you’ll find they have correctly predicted the winner 96% of the time.

That is incredible accuracy.

For example, look at the NBC News poll we conservatives routinely mock. In 2008 the final NBC News poll predicted Obama to win by 8 points, and he won by 7.3. In 2004, the final NBC News poll predicted Bush to win by 1 point, and he won by 1.5. This year, the final NBC News poll predicted Obama to win by 1 point as well.

Which name polls have been the most inaccurate the past two cycles? In 2004, Newsweek predicted Bush to win by 6 points, and Fox News predicted Kerry to win by 2 points. In 2008 Gallup and Reuters each predicted Obama to win by 11 points.

But are the polls always right? Well, 96% is pretty darned close, but when they’re wrong they’re really wrong.

The two most glaring examples are the exit polling fiasco in the 2000 election that led to an overhaul of that system, and – get this – 1980. That year all the pre-election polls undervalued Reagan’s actual support, and some did so substantially. For instance, an October 26th CBS/New York Times poll gave Reagan just 39% support, as did an October 29th Washington Post poll. But on November 4th Reagan got 51% of the vote and won by 10 points (third party candidate John Anderson got 7%).

Polling has come a long way since then, and state-by-state polling wasn’t even being done en masse back then. Still, given the documented ideological bias in the mainstream media slanted towards Democrats (Benghazi anyone…anyone…no, really, anyone?), it is worth remembering.

Speaking of state-by-state polls, how accurate has the Real Clear Politics average been with those the past two elections? In 2008 RCP considered 21 states battleground states, and the RCP average correctly predicted the winner in all 21 of them. Granted, that was a blowout for Obama which makes it easier, but what about in the much closer 2004 election? In 2004 RCP considered 18 states battleground states, and correctly predicted the winner in 16 of them. In other words, in the past two presidential elections the RCP average has correctly predicted the winner in 95% of the battleground states.

Misconceptions & Urban Myths

Misconception & Urban Myth #1: Incumbents below 50% always lose
While you’d rather not be an incumbent below 50% in the polls, there just isn’t as much truth to this as people think. Again, comparing this election to 2004, the final RCP average had Bush below 50% in all but 4 of its 18 battleground states. But Bush ended up winning 6 other battleground states where he was polling less than 50%, and that included the decisive battleground states of Florida and Ohio.

Misconception & Urban Myth #2: Independents always break late for the challenger
Actually, late deciders ended up breaking late for Vice President Gore in 2000, which was one of the problems with the exit polling. I still remember Rove on Fox News prior to the polls closing on Election night 2000 predicting Bush to beat Gore by 5 points. Kerry did not get a huge boost on Election Day from undecided voters in 2004 despite Bush being below 50%. In fact, the national and state-by-state polls prior to that election were extremely accurate.

Misconception & Urban Myth #3: The mainstream media polls are biased
They absolutely could be biased this year, but we have already proven the inconvenient truth they’ve been very, very accurate the past two presidential elections. Past history isn’t always indicative of future performance in the ever-changing world of politics, but for conservative claims of rigged polling in 2012 to be true would require a level of media treachery the polling in the past two presidential election cycles shows no evidence of. In fact, in several battleground states in 2008 the RCP polling average underestimated the size of Obama’s victories.

Predictions

Popular Vote
For the past six months I have been saying there is a better chance of Romney winning the popular vote than the Electoral College, and I still believe that to be the case.

Read more from this story HERE.

Video: Is Bill Clinton Dissing Obama Again?

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Just last week Bill Clinton told a crowd that Obama “didn’t fix” the economy as he promised. And just a few days ago, it was reported that Bill Clinton was pushing Hillary to release damning Benghazi documents that would ensure Obama’s defeat.

Now, at a campaign event on Friday, Clinton hit Obama again, but not in an overt way.

Clinton first noted that he hears “all these people say, ‘Oh I was so enthusiastic four years ago. I had so much hope for change, and I’m so disappointed, this, that and the other thing.'”

Apparently because of Obama’s widespread lack of support, Clinton concluded that he “may be the only person in America, but I am far more enthusiastic about President Obama this time than I was four years ago”:

Conflict-of-Interest Concerns Raised as Obama Races to Implement Health Reform

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photo credit: mlangsam2004 The Obama administration is relying heavily on outside contractors to implement a core component of healthcare reform as it races to set up a federal health insurance marketplace before 2014.

The fast-approaching deadline gives the administration little time to scrutinize private-sector partners for conflicts of interest.

The purchase of one of these contractors, Quality Software Services, Inc. (QSSI), by UnitedHealth Group, a major healthcare conglomerate, has sparked concerns about a potentially uneven playing field.

QSSI, a Maryland-based contractor, in January won a large contract to build a federal data services hub to help run the complex federal health insurance exchange. It will be working with several other contractors, including CGI Federal, Inc., to create the technological architecture for the exchange.

The quiet nature of the transaction, which was not disclosed to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has fueled suspicion among industry insiders that UnitedHealth Group may be gaining an advantage for its subsidiary, UnitedHealthcare.

Read more from this story HERE.

Culture in Flames: States Allow Men to Expose Themselves to Girls in Public Bathrooms

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I know that many conservatives don’t like talking about the politics of sex and how our country has now normalized perversion. But it’s precisely due to this passivity that we’re now at a point in many states where a man, calling himself “transgendered,” can legally walk into a girls’ locker room, strip down, and lay out spread eagle for everyone to see.

Yes, it really happened in the state of Washington. That state, as well as 15 others plus the District of Columbia, prohibit “discrimination on the basis of gender identity or expression.”

So what exactly does that mean? If the state has a public facility, it can’t prohibit access based upon one’s declaration that he is a “woman trapped in a man’s body” or vice-versa.

The insanity of this is obvious to any common-sensed American. And if you have any doubt, what happened last month in Olympia, Washington, should make that insanity crystal clear.

Evergreen State College has a swimming pool that it shares with several secondary schools in the Olympia area. Of course, in addition to a pool, the college also has a women’s locker room. A man named Colleen Francis (pictured above), who claims he is “transgendered,” stripped naked, laid out in the sauna, and according to Fox News, “exposed his genitals on several occasions.”

After several high school girls in the women’s locker room saw him, they complained.

Nevertheless, given Washington law that “requires equal access to state facilities regardless of gender identity,” it appears that Francis’s naked display to juvenile girls was legally protected.

So what’s the solution? The minor girls are now using a smaller locker room at the pool while Mr. Francis may continue to expose himself to the adult female patrons in the larger facility.

This is flat out CRAZY. And frankly, it hits close to home. I fly through the Seattle Airport, not infrequently, with my beautiful daughters and wife. They use the women’s public restroom that the State of Washington says Mr. Francis must have equal access to. So now, I get to cross my fingers hoping that some “transgendered” man won’t be lurking in the female restroom, waiting to (legally) expose himself to my young girls.

But why should I be surprised at this world-upside-down? My GOP-led state just allowed Alaskans to choose what sex they are on their driver’s licenses . . .

Republican National Committee Alleges Romney Early Votes Being Counted for Obama

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The Republican National Committee sent letters to election officials in Nevada and three other swing states on Thursday alleging “a significant number of cases” where voting machines cast ballots for President Barack Obama when the vote was intended for his Republican challenger, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

The RNC did not provide documented proof of its allegation.

The letter was sent to the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office as well as election officials in swing states Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado. The RNC said the alleged voting machine problems were the result of “miscalibration and hyper-sensitivity of the machines” and asked officials to recalibrate voting machines on Election Day and instruct poll workers to remind voters to double-check their votes.

A spokeswoman for the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office said a statement on the RNC claim will be issued later today.

Eric Herzik, the chairman of the political science department at the University of Nevada, Reno, said the RNC needs to “put up or shut up.”

Read more from this story HERE.

Video: Mike Huckabee – Vote For Obama, Go to Hell?

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A number of liberal news sites have attacked Mike Huckabee’s latest ad as threatening Christians that, if they vote for Obama, they’re headed for Hell. For instance the Inquisitr’s headline states from an article yesterday, “Mike Huckabee Warns Christians Voting Obama Will Go To Hell.”

Of course, that’s not at all what Governor Huckabee said:

Many issues are at stake, but some issues are not negotiable: The right to life from conception to natural death.

Marriage should be reinforced, not redefined. It is an egregious violation of our cherished principle of religious liberty for the government to force the Church to buy the kind of insurance that leads to the taking of innocent human life.

Governor Huckabee concluded:

Your vote will affect the future and be recorded in eternity. Will you vote the values that will stand the test of fire? This is Mike Huckabee asking you to join me November 6th and vote based on values that will stand the test of fire.”

See the ad for yourself here:

Another Reason Why the UN Has to Go: Only Israel Wants Romney

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In contrast to a recent survey finding that respondents in 21 countries around the world favor President Obama over Mitt Romney by a significant margin, a new opinion poll in Israel suggests that Jews in that country would be much happier to see the Republican candidate win.

Fifty-seven percent of Jewish respondents said that, “when it comes to Israel’s interests,” they would prefer Romney as the next U.S. president, compared to 22 percent who said the same of Obama.

Among Israeli Arab respondents, Obama was favored by a 45-15 point margin.

The Peace Index poll, a project of Tel Aviv University and the independent Israel Democracy Institute, was conducted last week and released on Monday.

Breaking down the Jewish response, among those identifying themselves as on the right 70 percent preferred Romney and 13 percent favored Obama. Among self-identified leftists, Obama led by 51-30 points. In the political center, Romney was favored over his Democratic rival by 54 points to 25.

Read more from this story HERE.

$60k Per Family: Go On Welfare, Live Better Than Average Middle Class Family

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New data compiled by the Republican side of the Senate Budget Committee shows that, last year, the United States spent over $60,000 to support welfare programs per each household that is in poverty. The calculations are based on data from the Census, the Office of Management and Budget, and the Congressional Research Services.

“According to the Census’s American Community Survey, the number of households with incomes below the poverty line in 2011 was 16,807,795,” the Senate Budget Committee notes. “If you divide total federal and state spending by the number of households with incomes below the poverty line, the average spending per household in poverty was $61,194 in 2011.”

This dollar figure is almost three times the amount the average household on poverty lives on per year. “If the spending on these programs were converted into cash, and distributed exclusively to the nation’s households below the poverty line, this cash amount would be over 2.5 times the federal poverty threshold for a family of four, which in 2011 was $22,350 (see table in this link),” the Republicans on the Senate Budget Committee note.

Read more from this story HERE.