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The Schools Should Be the First Thing to Reopen, Not the Last

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Even those promoting lockdown policies will readily admit that this virus will not go away until we achieve herd immunity in some form. What if I told you there is a risk-free way to get the youngest people to achieve herd immunity, shield the vulnerable populations, and avoid the incalculable cost of lost education and mental health for an entire generation of schoolchildren – not to mention freeing up their parents to work?

Closing schools was the biggest mistake of this lockdown, with the possible exception of banning non-emergency surgeries. They should have been the last thing to close, not the first thing. In fact, given that there is, statistically speaking, close to a 0% death rate among school-age children from the coronavirus, schools should never have been shut. They are certainly more essential than lawn and gardening or dog grooming and are perfectly capable of following the same guidelines. Now that the data and research are in, based on samples of millions of cases, it’s time to rectify that mistake first, not last.

Settled fact: The COVID-19 death rate among children is astronomically low

According to the CDC, three children aged 5-14 died of COVID-19 in the entire country. Another 42 died among those aged 15-24. Those are simply astounding numbers, given that numerous serology studies indicate that tens of millions of people have likely gotten the virus already. Moreover, once those numbers are so statistically insignificant, one would have to dig in to further research to see if those children had serious underlying conditions and/or perhaps died with COVID-19, not because of COVID-19, since we know how deaths are being counted.

If that is enough to shut schools and invite so much mental health, educational, social, and family upheaval, then we may die as a nation. According to the CDC, approximately 12,000 children die from unintentional injuries every year.

While an infinitesimal number of children did become sick enough to warrant hospitalization, according to the CDC, “For children (0-17 years), COVID-19 hospitalization rates are much lower than influenza hospitalization rates during recent influenza seasons.”

Further research is required to determine whether kids with pre-existing conditions (beyond immunodeficiencies) are at risk like adults and which conditions are at risk, but it’s settled science that healthy school-age kids are not at risk.

Obviously, the faculty is older, and clearly the schools would have to find replacements for those who are seniors or have health conditions, but that is no different from the policies we would recommend for any essential business that is open. It would be ludicrous to shut down the education and social environment of a generation of children indefinitely for those personnel shortfalls. That’s also why it’s incomprehensible for governments to leave open super-spreader subways for everyone, but ban children’s playdates.

But what about children spreading to a vulnerable population?

Inevitably, proponents of indefinite lockdown will charge, “Even if children have no risk of killing each other, they will spread it to their grandparents or vulnerable populations while they are asymptomatic and get them killed.”

Even if the premise of mass asymptomatic spread from kids to the elderly is rooted in science, it would not justify a full shutdown. One can easily still abide by guidelines not to have kids around vulnerable populations and for the kids from households with chronically ill people to stay home and get livestreams of their classes. Most young adults who are the parents of school-age children also have a remarkably low fatality rate, which has been proven from multiple data sets, even if it’s not quite as low as for children. And again, for those with parents or siblings with high risks, they would obviously be advised to stay at home, as would any healthy child who shows any signs of temporary respiratory illness or fever.

Take Florida, for example, the third largest state in the country. There has not been a single death in the age bracket under 24 and only 87 deaths for those under 55. How many of those had serious underlying conditions? This is in a state of over 21 million people. In Texas, a state of nearly 30 million people, there have been just 69 deaths among those under 60. In many of the smaller states, there are zero deaths of younger adults of any health status.

Even in New Jersey, the second-hardest-hit state, no school-age children died, while 360 under the age of 50 died, as of May 1. NYC is the only place in the country with statistically significant numbers of younger people (but not kids) who died, but broken down by those with health conditions, only 85 people under the age of 65 (most of them near the upper bound of the age bracket) died without underlying conditions. That is one-half of one percent of all New York City deaths.

Dealing with schoolchildren and their parents is a very manageable problem relative to the problem of the lockdown and can certainly be tailored state by state and county by county.

Evidence shows kids do not transmit COVID-19 to adults in significant numbers

Let’s take this a step further. Is there even a problem with kids being around grandpa? There are now several studies that show the entire premise of mass child-to-adult spread is completely unfounded, and there is certainly no definitive evidence showing that mass child-to-adult spread is a problem.

Switzerland opened its schools after failing to find a single case of child-to-adult transmission, instead positing that adults are the ones who transmit to children. The country has even advised that children under 10 can safely hug their grandparents. “Children are very rarely infected and do not pass on the virus,” said Dr. Daniel Koch, the head of the infectious diseases unit at the Federal Office of Public Health in Bern, last week. “That is why small children pose no risk to high-risk patients or grandparents.”

A U.K. study from the Royal College of Pediatrics found that at the very least, children “do not play a significant role” in spreading the virus: A 9-year-old British boy who contracted the virus in the French Alps failed to pass on the virus to a single one of the 170 people he was in contact with.

Iceland, which has done the most extensive testing per capita of any country and has, thus far, achieved very successful results, also found very little risk in child transmission. “We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents,” said Kari Stefansson of the Icelandic company deCODE genetics.

Preliminary results from a smaller Dutch study found that “children play a small role in the spread of the novel coronavirus. The virus is mainly spread between adults and from adult family members to children.”

Australia is one of the only Western countries that left most schools open for most of the epidemic, and it also found that kids, contrary to popular theory, were not super-spreaders. Australia’s National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS) traced 900 contacts among kids who tested positive in schools and found that only two passed on the virus. It’s unclear whether those two receivers were other kids or adults.

At this point, the onus is upon our governments to demonstrate why closing schools and all its collateral damage is justified. If anything, having children spread it to each other is the lowest-risk path to generating more herd immunity, especially given that there is no evidence of any significant child-to-adult spread. And again, it’s understandable if we might want to be more cautious than the Swiss and still keep kids away from seniors, but that should not stop schools from reopening and children from playing with each other.

Taiwan never closed its schools and did not achieve worse results than the other Asian countries with similar demographics that did; it actually had the fewest deaths of all. Singapore closed its schools much later than Hong Kong, and it did not affect Singapore’s outcome, an observation noted by the CDC in a memo last month.

Certainly, weeks after the peak of the virus, it is indefensible for us not to reopen schools. Political amnesia works wonders in America, but have we all forgotten that New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, of all people, actually vigorously opposed the effort to shut local schools in March and believed it was totally unnecessary?

How a densely populated Israeli town full of children proves the folly of closing schools

For those doubting the accuracy of the numerous European studies demonstrating little or no child-to-adult SARS-CoV-2 transmission, the Israeli town of Bnei Brak serves as a real-life example. This is a town of 200,000, but it is as densely populated as Manhattan because it is composed almost exclusively of very religious Jews who each have extremely large families and live in close quarters. As Israeli researcher Yinon Weiss noted in his riveting article titled, “The Coronavirus Passover Miracle,” Israeli government officials warned that this town was a ticking time bomb of death because they were not following state guidelines on mitigation efforts.

So great was the fear of this town destroying all of Israel that the military was sent out to blockade the town before Passover so nobody could go into or out of the town. So what happened after Passover as the government prepared to survey the damage and dig mass graves for the numberless dead bodies? According to Weiss, 99.99% survived, and only a handful of people died. The town is now fully opened.

What happened?

According to Weiss, the median age of the town is an astoundingly low 17.5 years, less than half the median in the U.S. and much less than the rest of the young country of Israel. They likely passed the disease around very rapidly from child to child and achieved herd immunity with the lowest-risk population of the country – with the ultimate added benefit of more quickly shielding the vulnerable in the long run. The Jerusalem Post quoted local Israeli doctor Elon Ganor as predicting that 50%-60% of the population is likely immune.

Obviously, in most other cities and countries, the share of children isn’t large enough to shield the vulnerable by simply passing it among themselves without any mitigation efforts whatsoever as they did there. But the salient lesson that there is no meaningful risk for school-age children, especially if you keep them away from vulnerable populations, is absolutely a universal, established epidemiological point.

What is quite clear based on any legitimate scientific analysis and data is that there is a much greater case to open schools long before even opening businesses. Yet even the most hawkish governors on opening businesses are squeamish about opening schools because they are terrified of the politics, demagoguery, and media shaming. Which is just another indication why none of these impetuous, erratic, and hypocritical decisions are being driven by science, math, prudence, or regard for public health, but by politics and media virtue-signaling. (For more from the author of “The Schools Should Be the First Thing to Reopen, Not the Last” please click HERE)

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Child Rapists Among 830 Inmates Freed in Massachusetts

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Two men accused of raping children are among the nearly 830 Massachusetts inmates that have been freed in the last month over concerns of the Chinese coronavirus crisis spreading in prison facilities.

Convicted child rapist Glenn Christie, 54-years-old, and 29-year-old Matthew Parris, accused of raping two teenage girls this year, have both been released from Massachusetts prisons after the state’s supreme court has ordered the routine release of hundreds of accused and convicted criminals.

As of April 26, Massachusetts officials have released 824 inmates from state prisons since April 3. This means that the state is releasing about 36 inmates every day with no end in sight, all in an effort to empty jails to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. . .

Christie is one of the inmates set free thanks to the court order. In 2018, Christie was convicted for repeatedly raping a 12-year-old boy.

Parris, also freed from prison thanks to the court order, was arrested less than two months ago and charged with raping and sexually assaulting two teenage girls. (Read more from “Child Rapists Among 830 Inmates Freed in Massachusetts” HERE)

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373 Asymptomatic Workers at Meatpacking Plant Test Positive for COVID-19; Stores Begin Rationing Meat Due to Shortage Fears

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By CNN. 373 employees and contract workers at Triumph Foods in Buchanan County, Missouri, have tested positive for coronavirus. All of them were asymptomatic, according to a press release from the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services.

The state of Missouri has reported 8,386 cases and 352 deaths statewide as of Sunday night, according to the Health Department Website.

Triumph, a pork processing plant, is located in St. Joseph, on the border of Missouri and Kansas.

It is just one of dozens of meat packing plants and food processing facilities across the country that have seen outbreaks of the virus, forcing shutdowns and sparking concerns of possible food shortages. (Read more from “373 Asymptomatic Workers at Meatpacking Plant Test Positive for COVID-19” HERE)

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Costco, Kroger Rationing Meat Amid Coronavirus Shortage Fears

By Fox Business. Costco, Kroger and other grocery chains are rationing the amount of meat customers can buy at one time as processing at U.S. meat plants has slowed down or stopped completely because of the coronavirus.

Costco, a chain known for letting customers buy in bulk, is limiting purchases to three items per member of beef, pork and poultry products.

Kroger said its meat purchase limits will apply to select stores.

“At Kroger, we feel good about our ability to maintain a broad assortment of meat and seafood for our customers because we purchase protein from a diverse network of suppliers,” a Kroger spokesperson told FOX Business. “There is plenty of protein in the supply chain; however, some processors are experiencing challenges. At this time, we’ve added purchase limits only on ground beef and fresh pork.”

Regional chains Food Lion and Wegmans are cracking down on customers trying to stock up, too. (Read more from “Costco, Kroger Rationing Meat Amid Coronavirus Shortage Fears” HERE)

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DHS Report Says China Lied About Extent of Pandemic in Order to Hoard Medical Supplies; White House Sees British Trade Talks as ‘Chance to Cement Anti-China Alliance’

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By Daily Caller. A report from the Department of Homeland Security says the Chinese government lied to world health agencies about the spread of coronavirus in order to buy time to stock up on medical supplies to deal with the pandemic.

The Homeland Security report assessed that Chinese leaders “intentionally concealed the severity” of the novel coronavirus outbreak, which originated in Wuhan in November 2019, according to the Associated Press, which obtained the report.

Chinese leaders told the World Health Organization as recently as Jan. 14 that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus strain. Those assurances led to a false sense that the virus would not transmit easily, and that it could be easily contained.

While withholding information about the transmissibility of the virus, the Chinese government was busy ordering medical supplies from abroad, including face masks, gloves, and surgical gowns, says the May 1 DHS report obtained by the AP.

The report says that officials determined with a 95% degree of probability that China’s trade activity was not within the normal range, according to the AP. (Read more from “DHS Report Says China Lied About Extent of Pandemic in Order to Hoard Medical Supplies” HERE)

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White House Sees British Trade Talks as ‘Chance to Cement Anti-China Alliance’

By Washington Examiner. Washington officials hope to tie London into a trade deal that would make it harder for China to extend its influence as the United Kingdom and the United States begin talks on Tuesday.

Boris Johnson’s government has made no secret of its desire for rapid trade deals as the U.K. finds a new place in the world after leaving the European Union.

And as tensions rise with China and with months of economic gloom ahead, officials in Washington see an opportunity to score a win over Beijing’s expansionism.

The U.S. Trade Representative’s office says it wants to be able under the deal to act if the U.K. strikes free trade deals with “non-market countries,” restricting London’s ability to negotiate with Beijing. (Read more from “White House Sees British Trade Talks as ‘Chance to Cement Anti-China Alliance'” HERE)

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WHO Reveals Shocking News About Coronavirus Vaccine; Israeli Lab Says They Have Reached a Coronavirus Antibody Breakthrough

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By WND. The race is underway worldwide for a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, but one might never be developed, according to a World Health Organization envoy.

“There are some viruses that we still do not have vaccines against,” Dr. David Nabarro told CNN. “We can’t make an absolute assumption that a vaccine will appear at all, or if it does appear, whether it will pass all the tests of efficacy and safety.”

Nabarro, a professor of global health at Imperial College London, said that if no vaccine is developed, the coronavirus would become a “constant threat.” . . .

“It’s absolutely essential that all societies everywhere get themselves into a position where they are able to defend against the coronavirus as a constant threat, and to be able to go about social life and economic activity with the virus in our midst,” Nabarro said. . .

However, no vaccine was ever developed for the SARS or MERS outbreaks, which were caused by a type of coronavirus. By the time the first human trial of a possible SARS vaccine was conducted in Beijing in December 2004, the epidemic was over. (Read more from “WHO Reveals Shocking News About Coronavirus Vaccine” HERE)

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Israeli Lab Says They Have Reached a Coronavirus Antibody Breakthrough

By The Blaze. The Israel Institute for Biological Research announced on Monday that they had completed the development phase of an antibody to battle the coronavirus, and it will head to mass production.

Israeli Defense Minister Naftali Bennett visited the lab on Monday and made a joint announcement about the advancement.

“A significant breakthrough has been achieved in finding an antidote to the Corona virus that attacks the virus and can neutralize it in the sick body,” read the statement from the IIBR and Bennett.

The IIBR is seeking to patent the antibody and to produce it commercially in partnership with the Israeli Defense Ministry. (Read more from “Israeli Lab Says They Have Reached a Coronavirus Antibody Breakthrough” HERE)

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Nobel Prize Winner: Data Shows Lockdowns Were ‘Huge Mistake’

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After careful study since January, a Nobel Prize-winning scientist believes the spread of the coronavirus follows a similar pattern, regardless of social-distancing practices.

“There is no doubt in my mind, that when we come to look back on this, the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor,” said Michael Levitt, professor of structural biology at the Stanford School of Medicine, in an interview with Freddie Sayers of the U.K. publication UnHerd.

The winner of the 2013 Nobel Prize for Chemistry for “the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems,” he acknowledges he is not an epidemiologist. But Levitt argues that much of modern science is about statistics, and he is an expert in that field.

Sayers noted that when Levitt first spoke out in early February, he accurately predicted the number of cases and deaths in Hubei province, where the coronavirus originated, would top out at around 3,250 deaths.

Levitt has found in every area where the coronavirus breaks out, there is a similar mathematical pattern, regardless of government interventions. (Read more from “Nobel Prize Winner: Data Shows Lockdowns Were ‘Huge Mistake'” HERE)

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Pompeo Says ‘Enormous Evidence’ Shows Coronavirus Began in Wuhan Lab, Blasts China

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By New York Post. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said “enormous evidence” exists indicating the coronavirus pandemic began in a lab in Wuhan, China and that the ruling Communist Party did everything it could to keep the outbreak under wraps.

“There’s enormous evidence that that’s where this began. We’ve said from the beginning that this was a virus that originated in Wuhan, China. We took a lot of grief for that from the outset. But I think the whole world can see now,” he said on ABC News’ “This Week” on Sunday.

“Remember, China has a history of infecting the world, and they have a history of running substandard laboratories. These are not the first times that we’ve had a world exposed to viruses as a result of failures in a Chinese lab.” . . .

“China behaved like authoritarian regimes do, attempted to conceal and hide and confuse. It employed the World Health Organization as a tool to do the same. These are the kind of things that have now presented this enormous crisis, an enormous loss of life and tremendous economic cost, all across the globe,” Pompeo said. (Read more from “Pompeo Says ‘Enormous Evidence’ Shows Coronavirus Began in Wuhan Lab” HERE)

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Pompeo Blasts China for Suppressing Coronavirus Information, Call It a ‘Classic Communist Disinformation Effort’

By Fox News. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo laid harsh blame on China on Sunday for engaging in what he called a “classic Communist disinformation effort” and for working “to make sure the world didn’t learn in a timely fashion” about the coronavirus outbreak.

Pompeo told ABC’s “This Week” that the Chinese government “created enormous risk” by downplaying the outbreak and working to silence medical professionals and reporters as part of a campaign to limit the spread of the information about the contagion.

The COVID-19 outbreak was first reported late last year in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.

“We can confirm that the Chinese Communist Party did all that it could to make sure that the world didn’t learn in a timely fashion about what was taking place,” Pompeo said. “President Trump has been very clear. We’re going to hold those responsible accountable, and we’ll do so on a timeline that is our own.” (Read more from “Pompeo Blasts China for Suppressing Coronavirus Information, Call It a ‘Classic Communist Disinformation Effort'” HERE)

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WATCH: Protesters in at Least 10 States DEMAND End to Coronavirus Lockdown

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By The Hill. Demonstrators in at least 10 states across the country gathered on Friday to protest against stay-at-home orders and other emergency measures meant to blunt the coronavirus’s spread.

The protests underscored how antsy some are getting to return to a sense of normalcy after the coronavirus, which has infected nearly 1.1 million people in America, shuttered businesses across an array of industries and pushed more than 30 million Americans into unemployment.

Though some demonstrations were lightly attended, demonstrations occurred in state capitols and cities in California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Tennessee and Washington.

(Read more from “WATCH: Protesters in at Least 10 States DEMAND End to Coronavirus Lockdown” HERE)

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Coronavirus: More than 30 people arrested at protests at California capitol

By KIRO 7. Authorities arrested 32 protesters who defied California’s stay-at-home order and instead rallied on the capitol steps to reopen the state.

There were more than 1,000 people at the “Re-Open California” rally calling on Gov. Gavin Newsom to lift the state’s stay-at-home mandate, KCRA reported.

Organizers had planned for supporters to obey social distance measures and stay in their cars while circling the capitol, however video showed protestors holding signs while gathered on the grounds, KCRA reported. (Read more from “Coronavirus: More Than 30 People Arrested at Protests at California Capitol” HERE)

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With Fears of Meat Shortages on the Rise During the COVID-19 Pandemic, More Americans Are Hunting

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. . .Game and fish agencies across the nation have seen increased interest in hunting licenses. In Vermont, resident fishing license sales are up by more than 50% over this time last year, according to VTDigger.

The turkey hunting season starts this Friday, and turkey hunting licenses are already up 26%. Hunting and fishing license sales have increased by almost a quarter, which is a reversal of recent years that saw a decline in hunting licenses in every county in Vermont. The U.S. saw a 255,000 drop in the number of hunters between 2016 and 2020, according to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service license data.

As of April 20, the Vermont Fish and Wildlife Department sold around 17,000 fishing licenses for the year, compared to 11,700 the same time last year.

In the first week of its turkey hunting season, Indiana experienced a 28% jump in turkey license sales.

Georgia saw a 47% increase in turkey hunters in wildlife management areas this year compared to 2019. In the first 23 days of Georgia’s turkey hunting season, there was a 26% increase in turkeys killed despite no rise in the turkey population, according to Reuters. (Read more from “With Fears of Meat Shortages on the Rise During the COVID-19 Pandemic, More Americans Are Hunting” HERE)

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The Young and the Healthy Are Not Dying From COVID-19. Here’s Why That’s Vitally Important

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Why is our approach to the virus the same for all people, when the virus itself is so overwhelmingly biased toward a defined group of people?

Understanding that this virus only kills the elderly and sick in statistically significant numbers does not diminish their lives or even the seriousness of the virus. This understanding magnifies the need for a strategy that lets out healthier and younger people keeping the country running while shielding the vulnerable population until the virus burns out.

According to Minnesota’s health department, 99.24% of all statewide COVID-19 deaths have occurred either in long-term care facilities, such as nursing homes, or among people with significant underlying health conditions, with the overwhelming majority (78%) of decedents in the former category. That would mean just three individuals who died of COVID-19 in Minnesota were outside a nursing home and had no underlying condition. That is a 0.05% fatality rate just out of the known cases, and we’ve seen from serology tests that the true number of cases is exponentially greater than the number who tested positive. This fact should change our entire approach to the virus.

While the numbers are not quite that stark in more densely populated states with more widespread outbreaks, we are witnessing the same pattern to varying degrees in most other states and most other countries. Over half the SARS-CoV-2 deaths in Massachusetts, Maryland, and Maine were in long-term care facilities, and the median age of death in most states was 82. That number is 75% in Rhode Island, 61% in Pennsylvania, 58% in Delaware, 57% in Oregon, and 56% in Colorado. Even in a more widespread outbreak state like Connecticut, nursing homes account for nearly half the deaths, and those over 70 account for 80 percent of the deaths.

Understanding the importance of this data point will give us a better sense of why locking down an entire society is unnecessary (and even counterproductive) and why a balanced strategy of “stratify and shield” would be much better, on all fronts, than lockdown.

The data is in and the facts are clear: We were lied to

We were lied to. At the onset of the global panic in early March, the World Health Organization said the virus had a 3.4% fatality rate. Then, the same powers that be scared the world by saying a new version of the virus was killing 10% in parts of Italy. Eventually, they did the same thing with New York City and warned us that the rest of the country would be like NYC.

In reality, they ignored the fact that this virus had already spread for several months and infected exponentially more people than the official testing showed, that most people were asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, and that therefore, for most people, the fatality rate is a tiny fraction of the panic porn numbers – more in line with 0.1-0.3% or perhaps, as we will see, much less for some.

A fatality rate of 0.1%-0.3% is still very serious when factoring in the rate of contagion, the fact that it goes on well past the winter and early spring, and that, unlike the flu, there is no vaccine. However, it is nowhere near the numbers they are suggesting, and even in the New York City metro, which has for some reason been hit worse than any other region (more than half of deaths are from the tri-state region), the fatality rate is still well under 1% because at least 25% of NYC residents got the virus.

Breaking down the age and health status brackets — and why it matters

So now that we know SARS-CoV-2 is much less fatal than it has been advertised in order to justify lockdown policies, and all its human and financial tolls, there is no reason for a universal lockdown. The critical question, then, is what are the fatality rates by age, geography, demographics, and gender so that everyone is aware of their likely risk and can take precautions accordingly.

The truth is that the macro fatality rates we are seeing are very lopsided. Every virus has its quirks and particularities, and this one seems to have almost a linear increase with age. Kids have almost no risk whatsoever, which is why it makes no sense to close the schools. Younger adults have a very low risk. We also know that men seem to have a higher death rate than women and that black people seem to have a higher death rate than white people, while Asians have the lowest death rate. Genetics, unfortunately, plays a role, as well as some lifestyle and environmental/geographical factors.

But by far, the single biggest factors are age and health status. While the virus seems to be less deadly than the flu among small kids, slightly more deadly among younger, healthier adults, and significantly more deadly (but again, a fraction of what they claimed) among seniors, nursing homes and sick people are really in danger. Shouldn’t all our resources, regulations, and attention be directed toward shielding them while having as many others as possible achieve herd immunity, so this doesn’t keep coming back to threaten the vulnerable population?

Most serology studies in America (outside New York City) show a fatality rate of between 0.1% and 0.3% among all adults. That number is corroborated by hard data we are seeing in defined and confined populations, such as ships and prisons. Again, that is very low compared to what the media is telling us, but it might be much lower for other populations. First, all of the domestic serology tests excluded kids under 18. Their fatality rate is likely a fraction of that fraction. Second, what would happen if you removed those over 70 from the sample or even those over 60, and what if you removed those with chronic conditions from all age groups, but especially among seniors?

We don’t have a domestic sample yet that excludes seniors, but one study from Denmark could perhaps give us a partial answer. A large group of Danish epidemiologists published the results of a serology test from 9,496 blood donors who were tested for the antibodies in order to donate plasma to those sick with the virus, as we have begun to do in America. The sample was taken between April 6 and April 17 and only included donors aged 17-69. Thus, most kids were excluded but also anyone 70 or over. They used this random sample to discover the infection rate and extrapolate the number of total COVID-19 cases in Denmark, then compared it against the number of deaths for that age group. The result? An infection fatality rate of 82 per 100,000, or 0.082. That is less than 0.1%, and it even includes people in their 60s.

Obviously, this is just one survey, and genetics and demographics in America (which include more higher-risk black and Latino people) could result in a higher fatality rate, but this is very revealing. It also easily harmonizes with hard data we are seeing from states like Minnesota, where close to 80% of all deaths are in nursing homes, and that number rises to 99.24% when factoring in those with underlying health conditions as well. Putting these numbers together, it would make sense to suggest that kids have near zero risk and that adults 18-70 (especially under 55 or 60) might have a fatality rate significantly lower than 0.082% across many demographics and localities.

But it could be even lower.

As the Danish researchers wrote, “The death toll among all citizens below 70 years was used even though only 16 of 53 deaths appeared among individuals with no comorbidity. This was chosen because the denominator included all citizens in the age strata, thus, also individuals with comorbidity. The IFR including only individuals with not comorbidity is thus likely several fold lower than the current estimate.” (Emphasis added.)

Thus, for those who are of prime working age and also have no serious health conditions, the fatality rate is “several fold” below 0.082%. As such, it’s simply indefensible not to put them back to work and certainly send kids with an even lower risk back to school.

This point is punctuated even more by a similar study of blood donors from researchers in the Netherlands, whose serology testing data results a Dutch blogger actually broke down and extrapolated for fatality rates by age group.

As you can see, the 0.1% rate, which is often the benchmark given for the flu fatality rate, is not even attained until you get to the 50-59 age group. It’s significantly less for younger cohorts and still under a half a percent for those in their 60s. Of course, it’s nonexistent for kids. And again, all these age groups factor in those with underlying conditions as well as those who are healthy. We do not have a study of the fatality rate for people under 60 with no underlying health concerns.

Yes, this is one sample and from another country (with a much lower obesity rate than the U.S.), but it sheds light on the age breakdown of some of our top-line numbers from domestic studies and harmonizes with data in most states where the overwhelming majority, if not nearly all individuals, who died outside nursing homes had underlying health issues.

One doctor used the serology studies in L.A. and Santa Clara counties, which showed an overall fatality rate of 0.2%, and broke them down by age group based on confirmed tests and found similarly infinitesimal IFRs among younger strata as the numbers from the Netherlands.

Obviously, for reasons still being debated, the New York City area numbers are higher across the board, but nearly all of our country is seeing an experience closer to that of California and Minnesota, not New York. And even in New York, one comprehensive study found that 94% of fatalities in the area had at least one chronic illness and 88% percent had at least two.

Why are our governments not following the science and publishing the data?

This is undoubtedly a bad plague. But unlike in 1918, it attacks younger and healthier people in remarkably low numbers. There are certainly a lot of people at high risk, but the difference between shutting down everyone and shielding the vulnerable is the difference between a recession and an economic Hiroshima, a functioning health care system and a furloughed health system, a food crisis and a “mere” cut in jobs, wages, and 401Ks.

The Spanish flu was the most devastating pandemic of the 20th century because not only was it highly contagious, but it primarily attacked younger, healthier people between the ages of 20 and 40 with a fatality rate at least 20 times higher than the flu. Fast-forward to SARS-CoV-2, and our government and media are acting and governing as if this is the Spanish flu when, in fact, the effects of it, while very dangerous and for the most part more so than the typical flu, are nowhere near what they were in 1918. This is where understanding demographic fatality rates and a more targeted strategy of quarantine, as well as balancing rate of spread against achieving herd immunity with the lowest-risk population, is so much more achievable than it was in 1918.

It is simply indefensible that our government, which is sitting on more data than any other country, has not put out any information showing the fatality rates by demographics. While there is a lot about this coronavirus we still do not know, it is incontrovertibly clear that there is a lopsided danger for 15%-20% of the most vulnerable population and most pronounced in nursing homes. It makes no sense to use meaningless top-line numbers lumping in the whole population, including those least at risk, to shut down our society and kill more people with the lockdown itself.

The best way to balance all lives and the economy and mental health while protecting the vulnerable is to have the low-risk groups go out with proper precautions and allocate almost all of our resources on nursing homes. That is the scientific approach. That is the only compassionate strategy for the country at large.

On Wednesday, when Minnesota Department of Health Infectious Disease Director Kristen Ehresmann revealed that 99.24% of those who died were either in long-term care facilities or had serious underlying illness, KSTP reporter Tom Hauser followed up with the trillion-dollar question (59:36 of the audio). “So when Minnesotans look at that and they try to assess their own risk of having the worst possible outcome from COVID-19, which of course would be death, they will look at that and say, if I’m not in one of those two categories, why is this state shut down economically the way it is? How would you respond to them?”

The question remains unanswered. (For more from the author of “The Young and the Healthy Are Not Dying From COVID-19. Here’s Why That’s Vitally Important” please click HERE)

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