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WH Economic Advisor Won’t Rule Out a Recession

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National Economic Council Director Brian Deese would not rule out a possible recession during a Sunday interview on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Host Dana Bash asked whether the U.S. is at risk of falling into a recession.

“There are always risks,” Deese admitted. “Our economy is in a transition from what has been the strongest recovery in modern American history to what can be a period of more stable and resilient growth that works better for families. There’s no doubt we face serious global challenges, inflation first and foremost among them, and it’s hitting families hard. But there’s also no doubt that the United States is in a better position than any other major country around the world to address inflation without giving up all the economic gains that we’ve had.”

Deese said Americans are increasing their savings and paying down debt while businesses are investing into the economy to make his point. (Read more from “WH Economic Advisor Won’t Rule Out a Recession” HERE)

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Stagflation Nation: Economy Shrinks

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Stagflation. It’s back.

The definition of stagflation is growth below its long-term trend and inflation above trend. . .

The economy did not just grow slowly. It contracted on an annualized basis. Imports, which are subtractions from GDP, expanded massively and and exports fell. Consumer spending was weaker than expected, suggesting that households balked at high prices. Inventories fell, subtracting from GDP.

U.S. trade policy has left our economy extremely vulnerable to trade imbalances. Because our leaders refuse to erect adequate trade safety-valves, any time the U.S. economy recovers faster than the economies of the rest of the world, U.S. income leaks out to foreign manufacturers. That means Americans earned less and produced less. In March and February, the trade in goods deficit rose to a record highs. The trade deficit wound up subtracting 3.2 percentage points from first quarter GDP.

Inventories were weak after a massive build-up at the end of next year. As I’ve discussed a number of times, last year retailers were headfaked into thinking that year-end holiday sales were going to be strong because early holiday shopping had been better than expected. As it turned out, that early shopping was just people getting their shopping done earlier than usual because prices were rising and they feared shortages. So stores wound up with unwanted merchandise that had to be liquidated at the start of the year. (Read more from “Stagflation Nation: Economy Shrinks” HERE)

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Fertilizer Shortages Indicate an Even Bigger Crisis Is Looming

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As inflation wholesale prices soar past 10 percent and gas prices continue to surge, economists and farmers across the country are warning about another looming crisis.

Farmers are seeing a fertilizer shortage. Combined with high water and fuel prices, costs are set to soar as food becomes less available.

From Market Watch:

Fertilizer prices were already running red hot this year before a European energy crisis fanned the flames, potentially adding to a pinch on farmers in the U.S. and around the world and stoking worries about food inflation.

“It’s almost like a perfect storm of different reasons that probably has a lot of upside in price for different macronutrients,” said Samuel Taylor, Cleveland-based executive director of research at Rabobank, in a phone interview.

Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make nitrogen-based fertilizers used on a range of crops, including corn and wheat. Natural gas accounts for 75% to 90% of operating costs in the production of nitrogen, Taylor noted.

(Read more from “Fertilizer Shortages Indicate an Even Bigger Crisis Is Looming” HERE)

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Russian Ruble Now Worth Less Than a Penny as Wartime Sanctions Cripple Economy

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The value of Russia’s ruble has collapsed to less than 1 cent after the United States and other Western countries applied biting sanctions against the Russian economy.

The ruble was down nearly 10% against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday at 115.68 to the dollar. On Monday, after a weekend filled with painful new sanctions, the Russian currency saw an even more precipitous decline of about 30%. The ruble was at about 84 per dollar late Friday before the harshest financial penalties kicked in.

The ruble is now worth even less than an Afghani, which is the currency of Afghanistan, a failed state that has been overrun and is controlled by Taliban militants.

The currency’s free fall was blunted a bit by the Russian central bank’s decision to hike interest rates aggressively, increasing them from 8.5% to 20% in order to bolster the ruble and prevent a run on the banks. Still, people across Russia have been seen lining up at ATMs to withdraw foreign currencies. (Read more from “Russian Ruble Now Worth Less Than a Penny as Wartime Sanctions Cripple Economy” HERE)

Photo credit: Max Pixel

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High Inflation Expected To Last Well Into 2022

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High inflation will last well into 2022, economists say, indicating that supply chain bottlenecks will keep increasing prices and curbing production.

Experts expect to see average inflation of 5.25% in December, slightly down from the current maximum predicted 5.4% figure, according to The Wall Street Journal. If inflation stays around its current level, Americans will experience the longest period during which inflation has stayed above 5% since 1991.

“It’s a perfect storm: supply-chain bottlenecks, tight labor markets, ultra-easy monetary and fiscal policies,” Michael Moran, Daiwa Capital Markets America’s chief economist, told the WSJ.

Economists believe that consumer price inflation will drop to 3.4% by June 2022 and 2.6% by the end of 2022, according to the WSJ. These figures remain 1.8% above the inflation level seen before the COVID-19 pandemic. (Read more from “High Inflation Expected To Last Well Into 2022” HERE)

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The Problem With the American Populist Movement Is That It Was Centralized

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Centralized movements give the enemy a central attack vector to target and overcome. One man, who took on the weight of the world, became the sole focus of both the enemy and of the American Populist movement itself for over five years.

The oligarchs removed that one man from the entire internet, then they removed him from office. Everyone knows this, we all watched it happen. What no one has clearly defined is where American Populism goes from here.

The oligarchs believe that they have destroyed American Populism by rigging an election, removing the movement’s leader from public view, and by forcing everyone to stay locked inside for a year while the country burns down around us all.

They think they have won and want to define “New Normal” under their rule as they consolidate power. What they don’t realize is that they have recruited tens of millions of Americans to the side of reason, light, and Truth. Many millions of these people didn’t even vote for Donald Trump, but they recognize what is happening to our country and want to stop it.

Over the course of the past year I’ve seen comments across the internet become increasingly “red pilled” and aware of the Big Lies being pushed by the corporate media and frauds in government. It turns out that keeping people locked inside on the internet for an entire year ends up illuminating a lot of minds.

The People are learning what the real problem is: the globalist oligarchs. Not any one politician. Not this political party or that one. The entire system is corrupt. Banks, tech companies, media companies, schools, government, and on and on.

We must exit this broken and failing system and start building a new one immediately. We are not revolutionaries. We are not violent. We are reformers. We are builders. When we up and leave the existing system in favor of our own the existing system will crumble without us lifting a finger.

“You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”― Buckminster Fuller

The way around centralized problems in the movement is to decentralize American Populism at the local level. In order to take our country back and move forward with the American Populist movement we must first take our local communities back. Here are several examples of this happening across the country:

Big Tech’s Unlikely Next Battleground: North Dakota

Montana Bill Would Designate Antifa as Domestic Terrorism

Florida restaurant goes viral for ‘face diapers not required’ mask policy

We must build our own economy. Here’s how.

Pull your positions out of their useless stock market and buy bitcoin, gold, silver, food stores, and ammo. Bitcoin is free speech money. Learn what it is and how to use it. Now.

National elections are a big distraction. Members of Congress are bought and sold like cattle by the oligarchs, foreign nations, and whoever has the money. Instead center your focus on getting American Populists and Christian men and women elected mayor, to state legislatures, as judges, on school boards, etc.

Cut the cable cord. That includes both Fox and CNN. Do not watch it. Do something else with your time and money. Support alternative media outlets and individuals. Get that garbage marxist indoctrination content machine our of your home and away from your family.

Exit the Big Tech mind prison. Join Gab.

If your church has gone “woke,” leave. We have room for only one Gospel in Christian churches and that’s the Gospel of Jesus Christ. Not the imitation false gospel of “social justice.”

Leave Big Banks for local community banks.

Start supporting small local shops.

Create pro-family, pro-business, and pro-law and order policies for your local area. We can’t control DC, but we can control what happens in our backyards.

Pull your kids out of public schools where their minds are being molded at the altar of marxism. Do everything and anything you can to homeschool or attend Christian private schools or online schooling programs.

Pay attention to the brands you buy and support. Check out their websites and marketing. If they are “woke,” stop giving them your money. Period.

We must also work to unite American Populists on the left and the right. What unites the left and right wing populists, and Americans in general, is Jesus Christ.

The trasnhumanist nihilists and their technocracy are offering nothing of spiritual value. The Gospel Message of Jesus Christ, and that of American Populism, is one of redemption, hope, love, dominion, sovereignty, freedom and forgiveness. None of these things are possible with critical theory or woke consumer crony capitalism paired with a corporate techno tyranny.

What are you waiting for?

Let’s get to work, we have a new economy to build.

(For more from the author click HERE)

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U.S. Economy Takes Massive Hit With Biden Presidency

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Joe Biden: It Will Take Ten Years to Get Full Employment at Current Job Growth Rate

By Breitbart. President Joe Biden sounded a dark note on the future of the economy Friday, after a bleak jobs report came out.

The United States economy added 49,000 jobs in December with only 6,000 jobs in the private sector, according to the latest report released Friday morning.

“At that rate, it’s going to take ten years to get back to full employment,” Biden said. “That’s not hyperbole, that’s a fact.” (Read more from “Joe Biden: It Will Take Ten Years to Get Full Employment at Current Job Growth Rate” HERE)

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U.S. Economy Adds 49,000 Jobs in January — a Grim Sign for the Jobs Recovery

By CNN Business. America’s jobs recovery has lost steam: Even though 49,000 jobs were added in January, the nation is still down nearly 10 million jobs since before the pandemic.

Friday’s January jobs report also showed that the unemployment rate fell to 6.3%, beating economists’ expectations, marking the first decrease in two months.

The return of some jobs and a lower unemployment rate are definitely good news. But the US labor market needs great news to get out of this crisis. (Read more from “U.S. Economy Adds 49,000 Jobs in January — a Grim Sign for the Jobs Recovery” HERE)

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Report: China Moves to Surpass U.S. in Economics, Technology, Diplomacy and Military

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China is poised to overtake the United States in key economic and security areas, a development that could forever change the dynamic between the world’s two premier powers, according to a report released Tuesday by a congressionally mandated commission.

The United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission, founded two decades ago to mark the beginning of “The American Century,” produces an annual report to Congress, detailing challenges to the bilateral ties between the two countries.

The 2020 report, obtained early by Newsweek, took a definitive turn, even for an already historic year, calling on Congress to take action as the international playing field was redefined based on steps taken by Beijing and Washington.

“This year, a lot of our focus was on China moving beyond catching up and moving to surpass [the United States] in the economic field, [as well as in] technology, diplomacy and military,” Carolyn Bartholomew, vice chair to the U.S.-China Commission, said during a press call Monday. (Read more from “Report: China Moves to Surpass U.S. in Economics, Technology, Diplomacy and Military” HERE)

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‘A Tale of 2 Recessions’: As Rich Americans Get Richer, the Bottom Half Struggles

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The path toward economic recovery in the U.S. has become sharply divided, with wealthier Americans earning and saving at record levels while the poorest struggle to pay their bills and put food on the table.

The result is a splintered economic picture characterized by high highs — the stock market has hit record levels — and incongruous low lows: Nearly 30 million Americans are receiving unemployment benefits, and the jobless rate stands at 8.4 percent. And that dichotomy, economists fear, could obscure the need for an additional economic stimulus that most say is sorely needed.

The trend is on track to exacerbate dramatic wealth and income gaps in the U.S., where divides are already wider than any other nation in the G-7, a group of major developed countries. Spiraling inequality can also contribute to political and financial instability, fuel social unrest and extend any economic recession. . .

Recent economic data and surveys have laid bare the growing divide. Americans saved a stunning $3.2 trillion in July, the same month that more than 1 in 7 households with children told the U.S. Census Bureau they sometimes or often didn’t have enough food. More than a quarter of adults surveyed have reported paying down debt faster than usual, according to a new AP-NORC poll, while the same proportion said they have been unable to make rent or mortgage payments or pay a bill. (Read more from “‘A Tale of 2 Recessions’: As Rich Americans Get Richer, the Bottom Half Struggles” HERE)

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Job Numbers Show Why Congress Shouldn’t Rush to Pass Another Massive Stimulus Package

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For a second month in a row, the U.S. economy gained a record number of jobs.

Following job gains of 2.7 million in May, the economy added 4.8 million more jobs in June.

And even as the labor force grew by 1.7 million workers, the unemployment rate fell by 2.2 percentage points, from 13.3% to 11.1%.

While unemployment is still high, the faster-than-expected turnaround and record gains show the resiliency of the American economy and prove that this is not another Great Recession.

The American economy just added more jobs in two months than it did in the 46 months after the height of unemployment during the Great Recession.

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans have shown their willingness and desire to return to work, to stores, to religious services, and to medical appointments.

Moreover, the report indicates that Americans are weaning off of federal supports such as Paycheck Protection Program loans, paid family leave, and unemployment insurance benefits.

That’s a good thing, because federal programs cannot maintain people’s livelihoods indefinitely.

As Congress returns from its July Fourth recess, one of lawmakers’ top priorities will be crafting a Phase 4 coronavirus recovery package.

As businesses are already reopening and Americans are returning to work, that package should not be another massive stimulus bill, but rather a highly targeted response, taking into account new information and data to fix past mistakes and to foster the recovery that’s already underway.

Any additional federal unemployment supports must focus first on providing work opportunities. And policymakers should address still-high unemployment with targeted supports that end existing unemployment incentives.

Unemployment should never pay more than work.

Under the CARES Act’s additional $600 per week bonus unemployment benefit, about 70% of unemployed workers are receiving more from unemployment benefits than from their usual paychecks.

Not only is that unfair to essential workers who have remained on the job and unfair to taxpayers who will pay for those benefits, but it’s also unfair to lower-income workers to incentivize them (with up to thousands of dollars in additional income) to remain unemployed when doing so increases their risks of physical, mental, and long-term financial consequences.

And it has hurt the recovery by preventing some businesses from being able to reopen as soon as they would have liked because some workers would be taking a pay cut by going back to work.

Yet, liberal lawmakers passed a bill to extend the $600 bonus unemployment benefits through January 2021 (with possible extensions through March 2021).

The Congressional Budget Office said that doing so would reduce employment and output in 2021 and lead to more permanent business closures.

You cannot aid the recovery or help individuals and families by increasing unemployment.

That’s why Congress should replace the $600 bonus unemployment benefit with a temporary partial federal match to state benefits.

If Congress provided a 40% match to state-based benefits, someone who receives a 50% percent state benefit would end up with 70%, including the federal match. The match could decline by 10% per month through December 2021.

Such a match could also help workers who are able to find work, but with fewer hours and lower incomes than before, by boosting “short-time” or partial benefits in states that offer such programs.

As the CBO analysis of unemployment benefits explained of such proportional wage-based benefits:

[T]he effects on output and employment would probably be more positive, because a proportional benefit would not create especially weak incentives to work for people with low potential earnings.

While targeted unemployment supports can alleviate the symptoms of unemployment, the only cure is work opportunities.

Federal and state policymakers should seek to replace rigidity with flexibility and to help open doors to income and work opportunities for all Americans.

Policymakers can reduce barriers to employment by allowing safe reopenings of society, providing limited liability for workers and businesses that follow Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance, respecting individuals’ right to work, repealing wage restrictions that reduce jobs, and ending restrictions that limit workplace flexibility.

These are the types of policies that led to a 50-year record-low unemployment rate as recently as February, and they are the same policies that will help America return there. (For more from the author of “Job Numbers Show Why Congress Shouldn’t Rush to Pass Another Massive Stimulus Package” please click HERE)

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