Behind the numbers: Debates, late deciders propel Gingrich to win

Newt Gingrich posted a double-digit victory in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, with late deciders delivering a clear rebuke to Mitt Romney, the one-time-front-runner.

In the exit poll of voters as they left polling places in South Carolina Tuesday, nearly two-thirds said recent debates were an important factor in their vote, and Gingrich won them by a resounding 50 to 22 percent margin over Romney. You can see the full exit poll results using the Post’s Primary Tracker, where you can sort each candidate by their best and worst groups.

Late deciders – Gingrich’s debate performances in the past week may have won over late-deciding voters. In the exit poll, more than half of voters said they decided in the closing days of the campaign, and Gingrich won by 20 points in this group. Romney tied Gingrich among those who decided earlier.

Beating Obama – Unlike in Iowa and New Hampshire, Gingrich beat Romney among those who prioritized an ability to win in November over other candidate qualities. Some 45 percent said this was the most important trait in a candidate, a bigger hunk of the electorate than in Iowa or New Hampshire. Romney won “electability” voters in the two previous contests by overwhelming margins (63 to Gingrich’s 11 percent in New Hampshire, and 48 to 20 percent in Iowa). In South Carolina, Gingrich won a slim majority of these voters.

Dissatisfaction with Romney – Exit polls show fewer than four in 10 primary voters saying they would enthusiastically support Romney if he were the party’s nominee. Nearly half would back him, but with reservations. About one in 10 said they wouldn’t back him at all. Gingrich cleaned up among voters with reservations about Romney, winning 50 percent of their votes. A large proportion of Paul’s supporters said they wouldn’t back Romney in November if he ended up as the GOP standard-bearer.

Follow Joe Miller at Twitter HERE and Facebook HERE.

Read more at the WashingtonPost.com HERE.