Mitt Romney’s Iowa “Win” was a Defeat

Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate for President that Barack Obama fears most, won the Iowa caucus last night by 8 votes over former Pennsylvania U.S. Senator Rick Santorum. Both candidates ended up with about 25% of the vote, yet Romney’s campaign outspent Santorum in Iowa by a margin of around 100 – 1. And a Super-PAC backing Romney had spent close to $3 million in addition in Iowa by the end of December, while one supporting Santorum spent much less, at $347,000, according to the Des Moines Register.

How could Romney’s spending advantage and favorable polling results against Obama not have impressed Iowa Republicans enough to give him an indisputable victory? A big Iowa victory would have given him a stepping-stone to another victory in New Hampshire next week and a chance to try to “clear the field” of the remaining Republican rivals. But that didn’t happen in Iowa.

The reason is that 75% of Republican voters in poll after poll across the nation are simply not interested in Mitt Romney. Those Republicans want a different candidate, and one with a more conservative record. And the Iowa results reflected that sentiment.

As one digs deeper into the Iowa tallies, it is clear that Mitt Romney is no stronger in 2012 than he was during his losing campaign for the Republican nomination in 2008. According to the results in Iowa in 2008, Romney won 29,949 caucus votes. At the time, it was seen as a disappointing result of 25.2% of the vote because rival Mike Huckabee finished well above Romney with 34.4% of the vote. Though Romney finished in first place last night by the thinnest of margins, his overall vote total of 30,015 was just 66 votes more than he received in 2008 – and that was against what some pundits have referred to as a “weaker field of opponents” in this election.

Try as he may, Romney’s support, again and again, peaks at about 25% of the GOP field and then stops. I fear that is not a marker of a candidate who can beat Barack Obama. Romney will need very enthusiastic support from Republicans to beat Obama in November. But if there is now any candidate that is destined to lose steam in the race for the Presidency as a result of his tepid Iowa showing, it is now Mitt Romney. In this sense, Romney was defeated last night.

 Read More at CA Political Review by James V. Lacy, CA Political Review