Union Members Caught with Truckload of Stolen Romney Signs in Ohio

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Four men caught in a Sheet Metal Workers International Association (SMWIA) truck full of Romney/Ryan signs were issued summons for receiving stolen property early Friday morning in Perrysburg, OH.

Local police responded after residents reported seeing men stealing Romney signs in the middle of the night.

A Perrysburg Police Division incident report published by the Ohio Liberty Coalition listed four adult males in connection with the incident: Corey Beaubien, Christopher Monaghan, Sean Bresler, and John Russell. The police report indicated the vehicle in question was registered to SMWIA Local 33 of Parma.

John Russell and Chris Monaghan are listed as Business Agents for the union’s Toledo district on the SMWIA Local 33 website.

Additionally, Facebook accounts appearing to belong to Beaubien, Monaghan, and Russell identify the three as employees of SMWIA Local 33.

Read more from this story HERE.

If Romney Supporters Don’t Vote in Record Numbers, Obama Will Win-Page 3

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For example, I think just as the RCP average back in 2008 underestimated the Obama wave in some states he was destined to win already, I anticipate a wave of anti-Obama sentiment in states like Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas that will reflect the wave Obama got in solidly blue states four years ago. I also don’t believe the Obama turnout will be the same as it was in 2008 in those solidly blue states.

Romney 49.8% (+1.5)
Obama 48.3%
Others 1.9%

I am buying at least some of the GOP spin Romney’s support is underrated. But understand that while many of you probably still think I’m underestimating Romney with this prediction, for me to predict Romney will out-poll the RCP average by more than a full point is already out on a limb.

Battleground States
There are no examples of a presidential candidate losing a battleground state when they’ve eclipsed 50% in the RCP average. There are only two battleground states in the RCP average where a candidate has eclipsed 50%:

Nevada: Obama
Wisconsin: Obama

There are several battleground states where the candidates are close to the magical 50% threshold in the RCP average:

Florida: Romney
Ohio: Obama
New Hampshire: Obama
North Carolina: Romney
Pennsylvania: Obama

In fact, the only two battleground states the RCP average missed in the past two election cycles were Hawaii and Wisconsin in 2004, and they had Bush ahead in both by less than one percent (Kerry won both). So if you’re looking for upsets in battleground states, you’re looking for states where the RCP margin is that close. Two states qualify this year:

Colorado: Obama +0.6%
Virginia: Obama +0.2%

Anticipating Romney’s support is somewhat underestimated I will give him the benefit of the doubt and put both of those states in his column. However, I definitely think it is possible Constitution Party candidate (and former Virginia Congressman) Virgil Goode could cost Romney Virginia, especially with Romney running pro-abortion television ads in the state.

Electoral College
RCP projects 201 Electoral College votes safe for Obama, and 191 safe for Romney.

The scenario I have laid out so far with the battleground states fits perfectly with why Romney is making a late play for Pennsylvania, because it appears they agree with the numbers I’m laying out there and believe it may be their only real way to get the 270 Electoral College votes required to win the election. However, to win Pennsylvania Romney will have to overcome a 3.9-point deficit in the RCP average, which there is no historical precedent for.

At this point the Electoral College – and thus the presidency – comes down to Ohio and Pennsylvania, two states where no credible polls at any point in this campaign have put Romney ahead. I think the two most likely outcomes in the Electoral College are:

Scenario A (65% chance)
Obama: 275
Romney: 263

Scenario B (35% chance)
Romney: 283
Obama: 255

Congress

I’m not going to go into an in-depth analysis of the House of Representatives since no credible data exists that suggests the Republicans won’t retain control of that chamber. On the other hand, the Senate is far more competitive.

RCP currently lists 8 seats as “toss-ups.” Five of them are in states I am projecting Romney to win, and three of them are in states I am projecting Obama to win. To get to 51, and thus the majority, Republicans need to win 7 of the 8 toss-ups.

Indiana
Richard Mourdock has come under fire for his recent pro-life comments, but this is still a Republican state and a state Romney will win comfortably providing coat-tails. Prediction: Republican

Massachusetts
Scott Brown just isn’t an entrenched enough incumbent to withstand an Obama rout at the top of the ballot of a solidly Democrat state. Prediction: Democrat

Read conclusion of story HERE.

New Chinese Leader’s Close Ties to People’s Liberation Army Could Have Implications for US

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BEIJING — On one of his many visits abroad in recent years, Xi Jinping, the presumptive new leader of China, met in 2009 with local Chinese residents in Mexico City, where in a relaxed atmosphere he indirectly criticized the United States.

“There are a few foreigners, with full bellies, who have nothing better to do than try to point fingers at our country,” Mr. Xi said, according to a tape broadcast on Hong Kong television. “China does not export revolution, hunger, poverty nor does China cause you any headaches. Just what else do you want?”

Mr. Xi is set to be elevated to the top post of the Chinese Communist Party at the 18th Party Congress scheduled to begin here on Nov. 8 — only two days after the American election. He will take the helm of a more confident China than the United States has ever known. He will be assuming supreme power in China at a time when relations between the two countries are adrift, sullied by suspicions over a clash of interests in Asia and by frequent attacks on China in the American presidential campaign.

In the last four months, China has forged an aggressive, more nationalistic posture in Asia that may set the tone for Mr. Xi’s expected decade-long tenure, analysts and diplomats say, pushing against American allies, particularly Japan, for what China considers its territorial imperatives. The son of a revolutionary general, Mr. Xi, 59, boasts far closer ties to China’s fast-growing military than the departing leader, Hu Jintao, had when he took office. As Mr. Xi rose through the ranks of the Communist Party, he made the most of parallel posts in the People’s Liberation Army, deeply familiarizing himself with the inner workings of the armed forces.

Even if Mr. Xi does not immediately become head of the crucial Central Military Commission as well as party leader, he will almost certainly do so within two years, giving him at least eight years as the direct overseer of the military.

Read more from this story HERE.

If Romney Supporters Don’t Vote in Record Numbers, Obama Will Win-Page 2

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The day before the election the RCP average has Obama ahead by 0.5%, which means the race is essentially tied. However, the RCP average gives Obama the edge in 8 of its 10 toss-up states. In addition, there were 21 polls of various battleground states released on Saturday, and 16 of them had Obama ahead. Only two put Romney ahead, and the rest were tied. In fact, despite all the criticism from we conservatives of biased polling (and yes there is plenty), if you apply the methodology RCP uses to create its polling average to presidential elections state-by-state since 1988, you’ll find they have correctly predicted the winner 96% of the time.

That is incredible accuracy.

For example, look at the NBC News poll we conservatives routinely mock. In 2008 the final NBC News poll predicted Obama to win by 8 points, and he won by 7.3. In 2004, the final NBC News poll predicted Bush to win by 1 point, and he won by 1.5. This year, the final NBC News poll predicted Obama to win by 1 point as well.

Which name polls have been the most inaccurate the past two cycles? In 2004, Newsweek predicted Bush to win by 6 points, and Fox News predicted Kerry to win by 2 points. In 2008 Gallup and Reuters each predicted Obama to win by 11 points.

But are the polls always right? Well, 96% is pretty darned close, but when they’re wrong they’re really wrong.

The two most glaring examples are the exit polling fiasco in the 2000 election that led to an overhaul of that system, and – get this – 1980. That year all the pre-election polls undervalued Reagan’s actual support, and some did so substantially. For instance, an October 26th CBS/New York Times poll gave Reagan just 39% support, as did an October 29th Washington Post poll. But on November 4th Reagan got 51% of the vote and won by 10 points (third party candidate John Anderson got 7%).

Polling has come a long way since then, and state-by-state polling wasn’t even being done en masse back then. Still, given the documented ideological bias in the mainstream media slanted towards Democrats (Benghazi anyone…anyone…no, really, anyone?), it is worth remembering.

Speaking of state-by-state polls, how accurate has the Real Clear Politics average been with those the past two elections? In 2008 RCP considered 21 states battleground states, and the RCP average correctly predicted the winner in all 21 of them. Granted, that was a blowout for Obama which makes it easier, but what about in the much closer 2004 election? In 2004 RCP considered 18 states battleground states, and correctly predicted the winner in 16 of them. In other words, in the past two presidential elections the RCP average has correctly predicted the winner in 95% of the battleground states.

Misconceptions & Urban Myths

Misconception & Urban Myth #1: Incumbents below 50% always lose
While you’d rather not be an incumbent below 50% in the polls, there just isn’t as much truth to this as people think. Again, comparing this election to 2004, the final RCP average had Bush below 50% in all but 4 of its 18 battleground states. But Bush ended up winning 6 other battleground states where he was polling less than 50%, and that included the decisive battleground states of Florida and Ohio.

Misconception & Urban Myth #2: Independents always break late for the challenger
Actually, late deciders ended up breaking late for Vice President Gore in 2000, which was one of the problems with the exit polling. I still remember Rove on Fox News prior to the polls closing on Election night 2000 predicting Bush to beat Gore by 5 points. Kerry did not get a huge boost on Election Day from undecided voters in 2004 despite Bush being below 50%. In fact, the national and state-by-state polls prior to that election were extremely accurate.

Misconception & Urban Myth #3: The mainstream media polls are biased
They absolutely could be biased this year, but we have already proven the inconvenient truth they’ve been very, very accurate the past two presidential elections. Past history isn’t always indicative of future performance in the ever-changing world of politics, but for conservative claims of rigged polling in 2012 to be true would require a level of media treachery the polling in the past two presidential election cycles shows no evidence of. In fact, in several battleground states in 2008 the RCP polling average underestimated the size of Obama’s victories.

Predictions

Popular Vote
For the past six months I have been saying there is a better chance of Romney winning the popular vote than the Electoral College, and I still believe that to be the case.

Read more from this story HERE.

Hot Springs Shutoff By British Columbia 7.7 Earthquake (+video)

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The recent West Coast earthquake appears to have shut off the water at the popular hot springs in Haida Gwaii’s national park, but there is hope they could reappear someday.

After Saturday’s 7.7 magnitude earthquake, Parks Canada workers went to check the springs and found they had run dry, according to Barb Rowsell, who owns Anvil Cove Charters.

“Three people went down to check it out, and sure enough there is no hot water and the rocks are dry and cold,” said Rowsell, who has been ferrying visitors to Hotspring Island for years.

The popular natural attraction in Gwaii Haanas National Park has been a major tourist draw for decades.

The park’s superintendent Ernie Gladstone said the springs were still steaming last week, but now, to his dismay, there is not even a puddle left.

Veteran California Poll Worker Fired Over Protest Against United Nations Observers (+video)

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photo credit: zhenxing88SACRAMENTO (CBS13) – A poll worker is out of a job, and she says it’s all because of an email she sent her supervisor.

The woman says she was concerned about poll inspectors coming to Sacramento for Tuesday’s election.

Shannon Lewis has been a poll worker in Sacramento for 15 years. She said she sent that email and was fired 10 minutes later.

“I just tapped out a really fast email,” said Lewis.

But that quick email ended Lewis’ 15 year job as a Sacramento County pollster. “I just wanted to get my feelings known and get an answer to the question before polling day,” said Lewis.

Lewis’ email inquired about something she saw on the internet, United Nations observers coming to local polling stations. Read more from this story HERE.

Video: Bristol Palin Wins Legal Victory Over Bar Heckler

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By Jennifer Madison. Bristol Palin has won her legal fight with a man accused of heckling her on her reality show Bristol Palin: Life’s a Tripp.

The 22-year-old was named in a lawsuit filed by Stephen Hanks, who was seen in an episode shouting obscenities about her mother, former U.S. Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin, during an altercation with Bristol at a Hollywood bar.

Hanks claimed he never signed a waiver to appear on the show and that Bristol invaded his privacy by outing him as a gay man in filings naming the reality star and A&E network.

Bristol’s docu-series premiered in June of this year and followed her as she moved to Los Angeles with her three-year-old son, Tripp, whom she shares with ex-fiancé Levi Johnston.

In episode of the Lifetime network series shows a verbal argument erupting after Bristol is heckled while she rides a mechanical bull at the Saddle Ranch on Los Angeles’ Sunset Strip. Read more from this story HERE.

Here’s the full video of the heckling incident [caution: this is unedited; the heckler who sued Palin uses repeated profanities]:

Sen. Vitter Labels Justice Dept. ‘Campaign Arm’ for Obama, Demands Deportation of Illegals Who Vote

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photo credit: nflravensIllegal aliens and noncitizens who vote in U.S. elections would be put on an accelerated path toward deportation under new legislation introduced by Republican Louisiana Sen. David Vitter.

While this is a “seemingly common sense proposition” there is currently no law on the books that would make voter fraud a deportable offense for foreign nationals, Vitter told the Daily Caller in an interview.

“While this may sound bizarre to a lot of folks in Washington D.C., illegal aliens and noncitizens have no constitutional right to vote in American elections,” he added in an emailed statement. “And they certainly shouldn’t influence the outcomes.”

“My bill injects some of that common sense and puts teeth into voter laws so we can uphold the integrity of American elections. Of course we want immigrants to become voters once they become citizens, but our election system and our right to vote are being taken advantage of because of weak enforcement.”

Alleging that President Obama’s Department of Justice (DOJ) refuses to enforce a key provision of federal law that directs state officials to purge dead and ineligible voters from their rolls, Vitter says he sees a strong potential for voter fraud to occur in states that could help decide both the presidential election, and control of the U.S Senate.

Read more from this story HERE.

Video: Is Bill Clinton Dissing Obama Again?

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Just last week Bill Clinton told a crowd that Obama “didn’t fix” the economy as he promised. And just a few days ago, it was reported that Bill Clinton was pushing Hillary to release damning Benghazi documents that would ensure Obama’s defeat.

Now, at a campaign event on Friday, Clinton hit Obama again, but not in an overt way.

Clinton first noted that he hears “all these people say, ‘Oh I was so enthusiastic four years ago. I had so much hope for change, and I’m so disappointed, this, that and the other thing.'”

Apparently because of Obama’s widespread lack of support, Clinton concluded that he “may be the only person in America, but I am far more enthusiastic about President Obama this time than I was four years ago”:

More Claims of Machines Switching Votes in Ohio, Other Battleground States (+video)

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Imagine going to vote for your presidential candidate and pushing the button on a touch-screen voting machine — but the “X” marks his opponent instead.

That is what some voters in Nevada, North Carolina, Texas and Ohio have reported.

Fox News has received several complaints from voters who say they voted on touch-screen voting machines — only when they tried to select Mitt Romney, the machine indicated they had chosen President Obama. The voters in question realized the error and were able to cast ballots for their actual choice.

“I don’t know if it happened to anybody else or not, but this is the first time in all the years that we voted that this has ever happened to me,” said Marion, Ohio, voter Joan Stevens.

Stevens said that when she voted, it took her three tries before the machine accepted her choice to vote for Romney. Read more from this story HERE.