Most Agree With Trump on This American Issue, Poll Finds

By John McCormick. Americans are “fed up” with politics, suspect the wealthy are getting an unfair edge, and think the country is going in the wrong direction, according to a new Bloomberg Politics poll that lays bare the depth and breadth of the discontents propelling outsider candidates in the Republican presidential field.

The survey shows that 72 percent of Americans think their country isn’t as great as it once was—a central theme of front-runner Donald Trump’s campaign. More than a third prefer a presidential candidate without experience in public office.

Three of the four candidates leading the Republican field fit that description: Trump, the first choice of 21 percent of registered Republicans and voters who say they lean that way, followed by neurosurgeon Ben Carson with 16 percent, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush with 13 percent, and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina with 11 percent.

Fiorina and Carson have seen the strongest gains among Republicans since the survey was taken a month ago. In the interim, voters have had their first extended looks at the candidates in two nationally televised debates. Fiorina’s numbers, at 1 percent in the August poll, leaped by 10 percentage points while Carson jumped 11 percentage points, up from 5 percent. Trump’s numbers have remained unchanged. Together, the three candidates who have never held political office account for 48 percent of the Republican vote.

“At some level, it is a risk to elect a person with no experience in government,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of West Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “Republicans, especially, seem ready to take that risk.” (Read more from “Most Agree With Trump on This American Issue, Poll Finds” HERE)


Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?

By Harry Enten. The “narrative” coming out of CNN’s Republican debate last week has been that Carly Fiorina notched another victory, in part by crushing Donald Trump. Here at FiveThirtyEight, we take a lot of shots at political media narratives, so it seems only fair to point out that, in this case, the narrative is right: Eight national polls of GOP voters have been conducted related to the Republican race for president since the debate, and they show a couple of clear winners and losers — Fiorina won; Trump lost.

Before we get to that, though, let’s be clear that we’re still talking about polling several months before any voting takes place; a lot can — and will — happen before the Republican nomination is wrapped up. And just as we said after the Fox News debate, it’s better to look at the aggregate of polls (that’s why I waited more than a week to write this). Finally, to control for house effects — a pollster’s tendency to find results that favor one candidate or another — I’m comparing post-debate surveys to the most recent pre-debate poll by the same pollster (i.e., Quinnipiac to Quinnipiac), as long as the “before” poll was conducted within a month of the Sept. 16 debate.


Carly Fiorina: As I said at the top, she was the biggest beneficiary of the CNN debate. She is the only candidate to gain relative to her baseline in every post-debate poll. In an average of post-debate polls, a solid plurality of Republicans who watched the debate declared Fiorina the debate’s winner (Trump came in a distant second). Moreover, it’s possible that the swift press declaration of Fiorina’s debate triumph augmented her bounce. Remember, it’s not only the debate that influences public opinion, but the post-debate media spin as well.

Marco Rubio: He was the only candidate other than Fiorina who didn’t lose ground in any post-debate poll, and Rubio gained in all but one. He also placed third, behind Fiorina and Trump, for the candidate most voters said won the debate. Perhaps most importantly for Rubio, he is now nearly tied with Jeb Bush as the top “establishment” choice in the polls (candidates who have held elected office before). (Read more from this story HERE)

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