8 Key Observations From Cruz’s Super Saturday Win

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For most non-political junkies last night was just another quiet Saturday night. However, in the world of politics, which will determine the trajectory of our country for the next four years, last night might have been the turning point. If Cruz winds up upsetting Trumpmania in this election, last tonight’s largely overlooked contests will have been the Battle of Midway of this nomination war.

Last night’s results consummate the narrative we’ve been observing since Super Tuesday: Cruz is surging and can defeat Donald Trump for the nomination, but if Marco Rubio and John Kasich do not exit the race, Trump will win.

Cruz won big in Kansas and Maine. Cruz won twice as many votes in Kansas as Trump and more than the entire GOP field combined in 2012. And he closed a massive pre-election deficit in Louisiana and Kentucky to come in just a few points behind Trump and nearly tie him for delegates. Overall, Cruz will net more delegates over Trump from last night. My best estimate (subject to change) is Cruz 71, Trump 60, Rubio 14, Kasich 10. Cruz has now garnered roughly 300 delegates, about 80 less than Trump.

Here are the 8 key outcomes:

Cruz is surging: Cruz has demonstrated that he can beat Trump even with a crowded field. His over-performance in every state by as much as 20 point as compared to pre-election polling shows that his Super Tuesday victories and superb debate performance have won over both Rubio and Trump supporters.

Rubio/Kasich playing spoiler: It’s self-evident that had Kasich or Rubio been out of the race, Cruz would have easily won Kentucky. Trump has siphoned off much of Cruz’s conservative base in rural counties and Cruz needs the full support of urban and suburban Republicans to overcome Trump. As long as a more moderate candidate is in the race, many of these voters will not go with Cruz. But once they are left with a choice between the two, they would have to get behind Cruz. This was borne out in Lexington and Louisville where Rubio siphoned off enough votes in third place to prevent Cruz from winning enough votes needed to counteract Trump’s advantage in rural, eastern Kentucky. In northern Kentucky, which would have otherwise been a stronghold for Cruz, Kasich played spoiler. Due to the Cincinnati media market, the favorite son of Ohio was able to cut into Cruz’s margins. Rubio/Kasich also prevented Cruz from reaching the 50% threshold in Maine to win all the delegates, costing him roughly 11 delegates and giving Trump 9 more.

Rubio is out of luck: Rubio failed to win 20% in a single state last night. He won just 16.7% in Kansas despite winning the endorsements of all the major Republican officials in the state. Yet, he still siphoned off some delegates from Cruz. Even if Rubio pulls off a miracle and narrowly wins his home state, he has nowhere to grow and is, mathematically speaking, hopelessly behind in the delegate hunt. Narrowly winning your home state means you will likely loose almost everywhere else. There is no rationale for his candidacy.

Kasich is the new Rubio: Across the map, Kasich is beginning to supplant Rubio as the candidate of choice for more moderate Republican voters. Also, he is likely to win his home state while Rubio will probably lose his home state of Florida. Kasich is also polling well in Michigan. But even if Kasich wins Michigan, he won’t net many delegates out of this crowded field in a purely proportional allocation. He won’t have enough delegates to mount a serious challenge and cannot appeal to conservative voters. By staying in the race for the long run, he could prevent Cruz from winning in important neighboring states like Pennsylvania and Indiana on the back end of the primary calendar. He is playing the role of spoiler.

Closed caucuses/Primaries matter: All four contests last night were closed to non-Republican members. It is quite evident that Donald Trump does much better with cross-over voters but as the primaries continue, most of the remaining contests are closed. This should help Cruz going forward.

Early voting is a killer: Donald Trump has been garnering all the media attention and has led the entire race. Thus, most of the early voting benefits him. He crushed Cruz 2-1 in early voting in Louisiana but Cruz won election day voting. This is yet another demonstration of why early voting is fundamentally unfair. In this case, many voters cast ballots before the Cruz surge and debate performance. It also shows that headed forward, Cruz is in good shape to continue winning states that are commencing voting after the debate. It will be interesting to see if Cruz could win election day voting in the neighboring state, Mississippi, on Tuesday, where there is no early voting. There is no early voting in the other three contests that day either: Hawaii, Idaho, and Michigan.

RNC Rule 40: In order for a candidate to be placed into nomination at the GOP convention, a candidate must win the majority of delegates in at least eight states. After last night’s majority wins in Kansas and Maine, Cruz now has three states under his belt. Trump already won four states with a majority of the delegates prior to last night’s contests.

Cruz can beat Trump: The biggest takeaway from Saturday is that were the other candidates to drop out, Cruz can easily win in most of the remaining states. Sure, Kasich can win his home state of Ohio, but he can never catch Donald Trump in the delegate count. Were he to drop out, Cruz would have an excellent shot at winning those winner-take-all delegates in Ohio. This week we will find out if those declaring #TrumpNever are good to their word or if they really hate Cruz just as much as Trump.

(For more from the author of “8 Key Observations From Cruz’s Super Saturday Win” please click HERE)

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Supporters of Rubio Claim This Is What’s Ruining His Chances at Becoming President

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Sensing an opportunity for an upset victory, Marco Rubio spent most of Friday in Kansas, where he picked up a series of high-profile endorsements that he hoped could help thrust him into contention.

Instead, he finished a disappointing third in the Saturday caucus in Kansas, repeating the same pattern as in some Super Tuesday states earlier last week: a big last-minute push, notable endorsements and a thud of a finish.

Those doing the endorsing, along with many other supporters, bemoaned the results, as well as the campaign that produced them.

I felt I had a dog in the fight, and it hurt me personally when I thought we were going to win,” said Republican Sen. James M. Inhofe of Oklahoma, another state where Rubio came in behind Cruz and Trump. “The thing is, when Rubio was there, the enthusiasm was so great, better than the others. He had a great reception. If everything had been equal in terms of appearances and organization, he would have won Oklahoma.”

Party leaders, donors and other supporters of Rubio portray a political operation that continues to come up short in its message, in its attention to the fundamentals of campaigning and in its use of a promising politician. The failures have all but doomed ­Rubio’s chances of securing the GOP nomination, leaving him far behind Trump and Cruz in both delegates and states won. (Read more from “Supporters of Rubio Claim This Is What’s Ruining His Chances at Becoming President” HERE)

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Trump Stays in Front as Cruz Raises Pressure With Split Decision

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Donald Trump and Ted Cruz got a split decision from Republican voters in four states Saturday that didn’t dramatically change the nomination race but did expose unrest among party conservatives who want an alternative to the celebrity real estate mogul as their presidential nominee.

Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, scored an overwhelming win over Bernie Sanders in Louisiana’s delegate-rich primary that lets her maintain a solid lead for the Democratic nomination even as the Vermont senator won caucuses in Kansas and Nebraska.

Trump defeated Cruz in the Louisiana primary by 41 percent to 38 percent and in the Kentucky caucuses by 36 percent to 32 percent, according to the Associated Press. Cruz prevailed in caucuses in Kansas by 48 percent to 23 percent and in Maine by 46 percent to 33 percent. Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Ohio Governor John Kasich finished third or fourth in the states, prompting Trump to call for Rubio to drop out of the race.

The results of Saturday’s voting for both parties raises the stakes for Trump’s and Clinton’s challengers to make a stand in the next round of contests on Tuesday and the slate of five state primaries on March 15 . . .

While Trump held on to his front-runner status in the Republican race, Cruz’s wins show that he may be able to rally support from some conservatives who’ve been pushing back against Trump over his rhetoric and changing positions, said Ron Bonjean, a Republican political consultant who’s not aligned with any of the campaigns. (Read more from “Trump Stays in Front as Cruz Raises Pressure With Split Decision” HERE)

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Top Conservative Just Announced Shocking Plan To Take Down Trump… He’s Not Going To Like It

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Bill Kristol, founder and editor-in-chief of “The Weekly Standard,” has joined a growing group of politicians and pundits who are trying to persuade Republican voters and delegates not to let Donald Trump win the party’s nomination for president.

After the Super Tuesday results, Kristol tweeted, “Cruz and Rubio have won more delegates than Trump so far. So they just have to combine. Simple. Cruz-Rubio 2016. QED.”

In a recent interview with MSNBC, Kristol disavowed Trump and continued his anti-Trump dialogue. He said he thinks Trump would be “a terrible nominee and a terrible president.” He even went so far as to say that he would rather have Hillary Clinton as president than Trump.

Kristol reiterated his beliefs that Sen. Cruz and Sen. Rubio should join together to defeat Trump.

“The truth is, if Trump doesn’t win Florida and Ohio, it remains very much of an open race,” Kristol said, arguing that a brokered convention would allow Cruz and Rubio to work together to force Trump to lose the nomination.

Some of Kristol’s Twitter followers didn’t take kindly to his suggestion for Cruz and Rubio. One follower attacked him saying, “Get lost creep, you’ve been busying the establishment since Bush. You’re just bad for the American people. You outta touch snob.” (Read more from “Top Conservative Just Announced Shocking Plan to Take Down Trump… He’s Not Going to Like It” HERE)

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America’s Biggest Conservative Conference Just Announced Winner of Annual Presidential Straw Poll

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Ted Cruz won the 22nd annual presidential straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday.

Cruz’s win marks the first time in four years that Kentucky Senator Rand Paul did not win the straw poll.

Paul, along with his father Ron, has long been considered a darling among the CPAC faithful. The two libertarians have collectively won five of the last six straw polls conducted, as well as several other polls at similar conferences. (Read more from “America’s Biggest Conservative Conference Just Announced Winner of Annual Presidential Straw Poll” HERE)

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Schwarzenegger Endorses Candidate for President

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At a time when Ohio Gov. John Kasich is lagging far behind in the GOP primaries, he received a powerful boost from actor and former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

As Kasich rallied voters in his home state, Schwarzenegger endorsed Kasich during a campaign rally in Columbus on Sunday, telling supporters Kasich “kicked some serious butt” during his time in Congress . . .

Schwarzenegger has business interests in Ohio, notably the three-day “Arnold’s Sports Festival,” which he started in 1989 and is held annually in Columbus. He also invested in a shopping mall. Schwarzenegger said he was first introduced to the Ohio governor when Kasich was first running for Congress in the 1980s.

“This is the land of opportunity; it is the greatest nation in the world, no matter what anyone says out there,” Schwarzenegger said. “And we need John Kasich to now take charge and be at the White House.”

Schwarzenegger’s endorsement comes just in advance of Ohio’s winner-take-all primary held on March 15. The vote is critical to Kasich as well as to efforts by Republican leaders to derail the candidacy of Donald J. Trump. (Read more from “Schwarzenegger Endorses Candidate for President” HERE)

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Voters Have Noticed Something Very off About the Ohio Primary Ballot [+video]

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iVoters.com, a self-proclaimed “non-partisan, independent” website posted a video Thursday in which they showcase a glaring problem with the Ohio Republican primary ballot.

While the Democratic ballot is simple and easy to understand, the Republican ballot is dangerously confusing.

(Read more from “Voters Have Noticed Something Very off About the Ohio Primary Ballot” HERE)

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NY Times, Wash Post Criticized for Nancy Reagan Obituaries

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By Greg Richter. The New York Times and Washington Post both went for the negative early in their reporting Sunday on the death of former first lady Nancy Reagan, and conservative commentators made note of it.

Washington Times chief political correspondent Byron York was first to tweet about The New York Times’ obituary . . .

Meanwhile, Mediaite’s Joe Concha noticed that Lois Romano, the writer of The Washington Post’s obituary, was clearly no friend to the former first lady or to Republicans in general.

Romano appears from her Twitter account to loathe “the Republican party and also appears to have affinity for one female Democratic presidential candidate in particular going back years to her time at Politico,” Concha writes. “Just how she got the official nod to reflect on the life of Nancy Reagan by the powers that be at The Washington Post is an utter mystery.” (Read more from “NY Times, Wash Post Criticized for Nancy Reagan Obituaries” HERE)

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Michael Reagan: She’s With Her Ronnie Now

By News Max. After former first lady Nancy Reagan died Sunday, it didn’t take long for tributes from the political world to start pouring in.

Reagan died in her Los Angeles home of congestive heart failure. Political figures from her stepson, Michael, to Mitt Romney and Donald Trump quickly took to social media to remember the late actress-turned-first lady, calling on her take on the prevention of drug abuse and her love for husband Ronald Reagan.

“Nancy is where she has always wanted to be with her Ronnie,” Michael Reagan, a Newsmax TV analyst, wrote on Twitter.

“Now she is at peace,” added Reagan, who also is president of the Reagan Legacy Foundation. (Read more from “Michael Reagan: She’s With Her Ronnie Now” HERE)

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‘Whoa’: Glenn Beck Pulls out Unexpected Prop During Interview, Stuns Anchor With Trump Comparison [+video]

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Glenn Beck on Sunday compared Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump to the Adolf Hiter of 1929, the charismatic politician who rose to power before the Holocaust on “anger” and “nationalism.”

Appearing on ABC’s “This Week” Sunday to discuss the #NeverTrump movement, Beck said the “GOP has one last chance to listen to the people.”

Beck told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos that conservatives are “very very angry because the GOP did not listen the first time around” to “the Ron Paul people” and the “Tea Party people,” who he said were “way ahead of the curve.”

“The people are speaking clearly, and there are two ways to go: anger and nationalism, which has been done before in history,” Beck said, holding up a ballot for Hitler’s election, written in German.

“Whoa — Donald Trump is Adolf Hitler?” Stephanopoulos interjected. (Read more from “‘Whoa’: Glenn Beck Pulls out Unexpected Prop During Interview, Stuns Anchor With Trump Comparison” HERE)

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Black Lives Matter Organizer Posts Guide to Riotwear… in Arabic

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A Black Lives Matter activist who was part of the Ferguson riots posted a visual guide to urban riot wear in both English and Arabic on Twitter.

The tweet is significant because it was posted by Ashley Yates, who uses the handle @BrownBlaze on Twitter. Yates is a prominent protest organizer in the Black Lives Matter movement who is an advocate for violence. The Guardian quoted her in 2014 during her involvement with the Ferguson protest:

“If they can’t serve justice in this, the people have every right to go out and express their rage in a manner that is equal to what we have suffered,” said Ashley Yates, a co-founder of Millennial Activists United, who was arrested last week while protesting in Ferguson.

Yates learned organizing when she was the political chair of the Legion of Black Collegians at the University of Missouri Columbia; the group who was behind last year’s campus uprising there. Yates was not with the group at the time of that protest, however . . .

The tweet from @BrownBlaze came shortly after she’d retweeted an article from Jason Leopold discussing Cleveland’s plans to buy riot gear in anticipation of the Republican National Convention.

(Read more from “Black Lives Matter Organizer Posts Guide to Riotwear… in Arabic” HERE)

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