What’s Going on With the Senate Races?
It’s Labor day. There’s roughly two months to go before Election day, and while the media has been obsessed with coverage of the presidential election, less attention has been paid to U.S. Senate races.
It is very possible control of the United States Senate could change hands this November. With Democratic Minority Leader Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev. (F, 2%) retiring, Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-NY (F, 2%) is next in line to become majority leader should the Democrats wrest control from the hands of Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-KY. (F, 42%).
As rated by the Cook Political Report, there are nine Senate races that could be considered “toss-ups” right now. Of those nine, eight seats are currently held by Republicans and only one is held by the Democrats.
Those nine senate races are in: Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Remember, the Democrats only need to win five seats to obtain a majority in the Senate; just four seats if Hillary Clinton wins the election and Tim Kaine can break ties in the Senate.
So where do these races stand? Let’s go state by state, looking at polling data obtained from Real Clear Politics and financial information obtained from the Federal Election Commission to find out.
Florida
The Republican candidate is incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. (C, 77%). After initially denying that he would seek a second term in the Senate, Rubio was tapped by Republican leadership and GOP nominee Donald Trump to run for reelection following his unsuccessful bid for the Republican nomination for president.
The Democratic candidate is Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Fla. (F, 13%). There has been controversy surrounding Murphy’s campaign after he was caught lying about his experience as an accountant. Liberals are also unhappy with Murphy, perceiving him to be too moderate.
Rubio has had a consistent lead in Florida polls. The RCP average of recent Florida polls currently has Rubio up 5.7 points as of last Friday. Rubio also has the advantage in fundraising. He has raised an impressive $53 million, a war-chest doubtless supplemented by donors who contributed to his presidential campaign. Rubio has spent a good chunk of that money, with his campaign having $4.7 million ending cash on hand.
Murphy has raised much less, clocking in at $11 million. He will be hard pressed to build his name ID against an incumbent Senator who is prepared to vastly out spend him. His campaign currently has $3.9 million ending cash on hand.
Illinois
Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill. (F, 17%), fearing for his political life, became the first member of Congress to repudiate his party’s nominee. His opponent, Democrat Rep. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill. (F, 15%), is an Iraq War veteran and wounded warrior, having lost her legs when the Black Hawk helicopter she was co-piloting was shot down in 2004. She has been traveling extensively around the state of Illinois in a vigorous campaign to unseat Sen. Kirk.
National Republicans seem uninterested in investing resources to preserve this seat, and Kirk is lagging behind Duckworth in fundraising. Duckworth has $5.5 million ending cash on hand to Kirk’s $3.1 million.
This race has seldom been polled and Real Clear Politics currently does not have an average of polls available. The last major polling firm to poll the race was Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, which found Duckworth has a slight 3-pt lead at the end of July.
Indiana
The U.S. Senate election in Indiana is for an open seat, with incumbent Sen. Dan Coats, R-Ind. (F, 42%) declining to seek reelection. The Republicans nominated Rep. Todd Young, R-Ind. (F, 53%), while the Democrats recruited former Sen. Evan Bayh to run for the seat.
Bayh has a considerable name recognition advantage, as he previously held the seat from 1999-2011. His father Birch Bayh held it before him from 1963-1981. He entered the race late, however, prompting the Democratic nominee who won the primary to withdraw his candidacy. Bayh’s late entry makes it difficult to ascertain how much money his campaign has on hand, as it will not be reported until the next FEC report. Republican Todd Young has $1.2 million cash on hand.
The only poll recorded by RCP has Bayh up seven points as of mid-August. Democrats in Indiana hope his name id will make up for his late start to help them win the seat.
New Hampshire
In the Granite State, incumbent Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H. (F, 32%) is squaring off against the Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan. Both are incumbent politicians who have appeared on statewide ballots previously, so both candidates are well-known.
The Republican Party is fighting hard to keep Ayotte in the Senate, and she is currently sitting with $7 million cash on hand. Gov. Hassan has $4.2 million on hand, and has spent about $1 million less than Ayotte.
It is a very close race, with Hassan leading by a difference of less than one point in the RCP Average.
Nevada
The Senate race in Nevada is the only close race this cycle in which the prize is a seat held by a Democratic member of Congress. Senator Harry Reid, D-Nev. (F, 2%) announced his retirement in March of 2015. Former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev. will face Republican Rep. Joe Heck, R-Nev. (F, 40%) in November.
The Democrat, Cortez Masto has raised roughly $1.5 million more total than Heck, who has also spent about $2.4 million than his Democratic opponent, although Heck has more cash on hand: $4.7 million to Cortez Masto’s $3.4 million.
The polls show a close race with both candidates tied at 37 percent as of mid-August.
North Carolina
Incumbent Senator Richard Burr, R-N.C. (F, 41%) leads his Democratic opponent Deborah Ross in both fundraising and polling.
Burr’s campaign coffers are brimming with $8.3 million total raised and $6.9 million ending cash on hand. The Democratic candidate Ross hasn’t raised half as much as that and has only $1.9 million on hand. Burr is in a very good position to spend the last few weeks of the campaign vastly outspending his opponent with television and radio ads.
Burr’s lead in the polls is slimmer, ahead by only 2.6 points in the RCP average, but that’s out performing other Republicans in toss-up states. Burr’s cash on hand should help him maintain that lead.
Ohio
Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio (F, 49%) is widely expected to win reelection in the Buckeye State. Though his Democratic opponent Ted Strickland is the former governor of Ohio, and as such has a higher name ID than an unknown challenger, Portman has been leading in the polls and has even earned the endorsements of four Ohio labor unions—typically not a GOP constituency.
Portman has blown Strickland away in terms of fundraising, raising $13 million to the Democrat’s $6.6 million. He is currently leading Strickland in the RCP average by 7.5 points.
Democrats are so unenthused about their chances that two Democratic outside spending groups have delayed “tens of thousands of dollars in television ads supporting Strickland.”
Pennsylvania
Democrats are more enthusiastic about unseating Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa. (D, 61%) who is facing a tough reelection battle against Kathleen McGinty, the former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection.
Recent polling has put McGinty in the lead by four or five points, depending on the poll, and she leads in the average by 1.8 points.
Toomey has the fundraising advantage, however, with $7.6 million cash on hand to McGinty’s $2.4 million. Toomey has outspent McGinty 3-to-1. If the polls are accurate though, McGinty’s dollars seem to be having more impact.
Wisconsin
The race in Wisconsin is a rematch between incumbent Senator Ron Johnson, R-Wis. (F, 58%) and the former senator he defeated in the Tea-Party uprising of 2010, Russ Feingold, D-Wis.
It’s looking bad for Johnson. Russ Feingold is leading him by nearly 10 points in the RCP average and is also outstripping him in fundraising. Feingold has raised $15.6 million and is currently is holding $7 million cash on hand while Johnson raised $11 million with $5.7 million cash on hand. Feingold has outspent Johnson by about $2 million.
And there is where things stand.
Should the Democrats win the White House, they will need to pick up four Senate seats to obtain a majority (with ‘Vice President Kaine’ breaking ties). The Republicans that seem to be in the deepest trouble are Mark Kirk of Illinois and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin. That’s two.
Can these GOP candidates use the next two months to pull up their bootstraps and keep the Senate out of Democratic hands? (For more from the author of “What’s Going on With the Senate Races?” please click HERE)
What’s Going on With the Senate Races?
