It’s a battle of narratives. It’s going to be a Democratic wave, or the GOP could defy history and retain its majority, albeit much slimmer in the House. The Senate is a different animal. It’s a GOP lock, with the possibility of Republicans actually entering the new Congress with 55 seats. If there is another Supreme Court nomination by President Trump, which is not out of the question, gone is the anxiety over confirmation. The GOP could lose its two moderates—Collins and Murkowski—and still confirm without any additional heartburn.
Yet, the blue tsunami could end up being low tide, and the reason for that will be because Democrats can’t get their people to the polls, especially young voters—young Latino voters to be exact. There are at least 30 House races where Latinos are a quarter of the population, but they’re not enthused to vote. As we mentioned before, this is becoming a rather big blind spot for Democrats. Bloomberg has more:
Just two weeks from Election Day, Democrats are agonizing about whether two groups of infrequent and liberal-leaning voters will turn out or dash their hopes of winning control of Congress: Hispanics and young Americans.
High turnout among Latinos and millennials is “absolutely pivotal” to the party’s prospects “and it’s of major, major concern,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “I worry about whether we as Democrats have invested in the infrastructure we need to really mobilize that vote in 2018.
…low Hispanic turnout could sink Democrats in some House races the party sees as part of its path to the majority. There are 31 GOP-held districts where Latinos are at least a quarter of the population, according to the Census Bureau, including those held by Republicans Steve Knight and Jeff Denham of California, Will Hurd and John Culberson of Texas and Carlos Curbelo of Florida. All are major targets for Democrats.
(Read more from “Oh, so This Is Why Democrats Are Very Nervous About Young Latino Voters” HERE)