An enduring U.S. expansion puts President Donald Trump on course to win re-election in 2020, according to economic models with a track record of predicting who wins the White House.
The forecasts from Yale University professor Ray Fair, Oxford Economics Ltd. and Moody’s Analytics Inc. are based on Trump being boosted at the ballot box by steady economic growth, an historically tight labor market and limited inflation.
Such an outlook justifies Trump’s push to harness what he’s called the “greatest” economy to return him to power a year from Sunday. It challenges some opinion polls which show his disapproval rating hovering near 54% amid an impeachment inquiry and polarized politics. . .
The economy expanded at a 1.9% pace in the third quarter and unemployment is close to its lowest in a half-century, government data showed last week. While manufacturing has been hurt by the U.S.-China trade war, consumers continue to spend in a sign voters are still confident about the economy. A Bloomberg Economics model sees the chances of an election-year recession at just 27%. (Read more from “Trump’s Re-Election Likely If Economy Stays on Course” HERE)