Here’s How Many Americans Believe We’re on the Brink of a Second Civil War; Researcher Who Predicted 2020 Turmoil Says Social Upheaval Could Escalate to a Civil War
By The Blaze. A new poll released Monday says that as protests and riots continue across the nation, a third of Americans believe the U.S. will see a civil war in the next few years.
After the killing of George Floyd, we watched peaceful protests in the streets, protests demanding police accountability and racial reconciliation.
Then we saw many of those movements hijacked by violent anti-police, anti-capitalist radicals who used the passions of the day to foster riots and looting that burned businesses, destroyed lives, and even took over several Seattle blocks to create some sort of anti-American commune.
While things devolved, Rasmussen Reports polled Americans for their take on where the current civil strife could be heading, Confederate symbols, and race relations.
According to the survey, which was taken June 11-14, 34% of us believe the United States will experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years, a three-point jump since 2018. Republicans (40%) and voters unaffiliated with a political party (38%) were far more likely than Democrats (28%) to see a civil war looming. Rasmussen noted that this was a shift since 2018, when Democrats were more worried about a civil war. (Read more from “Here’s How Many Americans Believe We’re on the Brink of a Second Civil War” HERE)
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Researcher Who Predicted 2020 Turmoil Says Social Upheaval Could Escalate to a Civil War
By Complex. . .From a global health crisis to an economic downturn to the worst civil unrest the nation has seen in decades, it seemed no one could’ve predicted just how much turmoil 2020 would bring. Well, except for one man.
In 2010, Peter Turchin wrote a scientific report published in Nature predicting economic and social instabilities would peak around 2020. The researcher at the University of Connecticut cited wage stagnation, public debt, and overproduction of graduates with advanced degrees would be among the structural factors that would trigger chaos “caused by pent-up social pressures that seek an outlet.”
Turchin’s forecast was based on an analysis of anti-government demonstrations from 18th century to 2010. He determined United States experienced spikes in instability approximately every 50 years, around 1870, 1920, and 1970. He predicted the pattern would continue in 2020, as the country was expected to enter “a dip in the so-called Kondratiev wave, which traces 40-60-year economic-growth cycles.” . . .
But there was one major crisis Turchin didn’t see coming: the deadly coronavirus. The potentially fatal disease has wreaked havoc across the world, resulting in nearly half-a-million deaths and severe economic pain due to the widescale lockdowns. Turchin told TIME the high rates of unemployment could very well lead more tensions in the years to come, so much so he is now concerned the situation “may escalate all the way to a civil war.”
“Our conclusion is that, unfortunately, my 2010 forecast is correct. Unfortunately, because I would have greatly preferred it to become a ‘self-defeating prophecy,’ but that clearly has not happened,” he wrote in a recent blog post. “What does it mean for the current wave of protests and riots? The nature of such dynamical processes is such that it can subside tomorrow, or escalate; either outcome is possible. A spark landing even in abundant fuel can either go out, or grow to a conflagration.” (Read more from “Researcher Who Predicted 2020 Turmoil Says Social Upheaval Could Escalate to a Civil War” HERE)
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