Polymarket Predicts Trump’s Return: 94% Chance of Him Winning GOP Nomination in 2024
Polymarket, self-described as “the world’s largest prediction market,” is making waves in the political realm by assigning former President Donald Trump a staggering 94 percent chance of becoming the Republican nominee for president in 2024. As of Monday afternoon, this prediction has captured attention and fueled discussions about the evolving landscape of the upcoming election.
The snapshot of the 2024 election forecast, unveiled on Monday afternoon, underscores the overwhelming confidence Polymarket users have in Trump’s potential return to the forefront of the Republican Party. In contrast, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley only managed to secure four percent in the prediction, while three percent opted for “other.” Notably, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who have withdrawn from the GOP primary race and thrown their support behind Trump, each garnered one percent.
.@Polymarket – 2024 Election:
Republican Nominee:
Trump 95% (+91)
Haley 4%
.
Democratic Nominee:
Biden 85% (+79)
Newsom 6%
Obama 5%
Phillips 3%https://t.co/ifkXXe8hDH pic.twitter.com/fzHP6IxAGp— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) January 28, 2024
Interestingly, Polymarket’s prediction suggests greater confidence in Trump securing the GOP nomination than in President Joe Biden clinching the Democratic nomination. The former president holds an impressive 94 percent chance, while Biden garners 85 percent support. California Gov. Gavin Newsom follows with six percent, and former First Lady Michelle Obama receives five percent. Rep. Dean Phillis (D-MN) and Vice President Kamala Harris round out the predictions with three percent and two percent support, respectively.
However, the forecasts extend beyond the nominee selection, delving into the potential outcomes of the 2024 presidential race. The current predictions indicate an 82 percent chance of a face-off between Biden and Trump. Of this scenario, 55 percent of respondents believe Trump would emerge victorious, while 39 percent favor Biden. Newsom, Haley, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receive one percent each in this aspect of the forecast.
These predictions come amidst ongoing developments in the 2024 race, with Nikki Haley steadfastly continuing her campaign despite setbacks in Iowa and New Hampshire. Despite her losses, Haley’s team remains optimistic, expressing reliance on non-conservative support in open primary states as they navigate the political landscape.
Memo from Haley team implies they’re willing to fight through Super Tuesday
…and rely on independents:
“Eleven of the 16 Super Tuesday states have open or semi-open primaries. Of the 874 delegates available…roughly two thirds are in states with open or semi-open primaries.” pic.twitter.com/wnnayyqcMs
— Philip Melanchthon Wegmann (@PhilipWegmann) January 23, 2024
Adding another layer to the predictions, recent polling suggests that Trump is not only leading nationally but also ahead of Biden in key swing states, setting the stage for a potentially riveting general election.
Photo credit: Gage Skidmore via Flickr
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