Trump’s New Strikes Against Iran Creating Enormous Risk for Taiwan, South Korea

With President Trump declaring on Friday that the ceasefire with Iran is “over”, the U.S. is now moving into a period of vulnerability. Key US weapons stockpiles remain significantly depleted and will come under even more intense pressure if strikes against Iran continue at the current level. 

“If the war continues at the rate it’s been going for the last [five] days … it would reduce stockpiles enough that there would be a new, higher level of risk … with the Indo-Pacific,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and defense analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

A China conflict scenario over Taiwan isn’t the only potential risk that the Pentagon may face if it continues to expend key missiles at a high rate. Analysts believe war plans with North Korea call for a significant number of US missiles, both to hit enemy targets and to defend US forces and Seoul from projected massive strikes by Pyongyang.

By the time full-scale fighting between the US and Iran stopped in April, the Pentagon had fired at least half of its THAAD ballistic missile interceptors, nearly half of its Patriot air defense interceptors, and around 30% of its Tomahawk land-attack missiles, according to a Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis.

Although the Defense Department has inked deals with manufacturers to expand their production lines, Elaine McCusker, who previously served as the Pentagon’s deputy and acting comptroller, tells CNN that the “timeline for replenishment of munitions for the most part will be measured in years — two-to-five [years] for most.”