Jeb Bush’s 4% Growth Promise Is 104% Nonsense
Jeb Bush wants the American economy to grow faster. A lot faster. “So many challenges could be overcome if we just get this economy growing at full strength,” he observed in his presidential campaign kickoff speech. “There is not a reason in the world why we cannot grow at a rate of 4 percent a year.”
It’s an exciting idea that really would solve a lot of problems, allowing the country to expand opportunity down the socioeconomic ladder without needing to redistribute wealth away from those who already have in. Then again, if some obvious prescription existed to deliver that kind of rapid growth, you might think that Jeb’s brother or his father would have hit upon the formula.
But though the campaign promise is a bit silly — even the policy institute that cooked up the goal turns out to admit it’s more aspirational than real — the concept raises the important question of to what extent the United States can grow its way out of some of today’s problems. The answer tells us something important about the limits of economic theory, the American electorate’s hunger for unrealistic promises, and how well the Bush family understands both.
How unrealistic is this, historically speaking? It is pretty unrealistic. Since Ronald Reagan’s inauguration, the American economy has grown on average 2.7 percent per year.
Jeb is promising to do not just a little better than average, but dramatically better than average. And he’s promising to do so even though the aging of the population puts a natural check on growth, since as people become too old to work the economy loses output. (Read more from “Jeb Bush’s 4% Growth Promise Is 104% Nonsense” HERE)
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