The U.S. Is Undergoing a Massive Population Shift and It’s Bad News for Dems

Democrat-run states are still losing population, new Census Bureau data reveal, a development that could have electoral implications when the government reapportions congressional districts in 2030.

Oregon, California, Illinois, New York and Pennsylvania, all states with Democratic governors and Democrat-controlled state legislatures, lost between 0.01% and 0.52% of their population between July 2022 and July 2023, according to the Census Bureau. Left-leaning states experienced similar declines in the lead-up to the 2020 Census, which led to them losing seats in the House of Representatives and votes in the Electoral College, an outcome that could occur again in 2030 if current trends persist.

“On its face the trends look pretty bad for Democrats” as it relates to House reapportionment, Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

“But, it’s also premature to extrapolate trends from the last three years on to the next seven years,” he qualified. “In all likelihood we will see a continued shift from California, New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania to the sunbelt and more Republican-leaning states, however, the magnitude of that shift is what’s up in the air.”

A map of the 2030 reapportionment based on new population estimates released today by the Census Bureau. pic.twitter.com/LMhFuchC8O

— Michael Li 李之樸 (@mcpli) December 19, 2023