Poll Reveals Sharp Decline in Biden’s Support Among Black Voters
President Joe Biden is experiencing a significant decline in support among Black voters in the pivotal swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, according to a recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll. The findings indicate a dramatic shift in a demographic that has historically been a stronghold for Democratic candidates.
The poll shows a substantial drop in Biden’s approval among Black voters, with support plummeting from 76% in 2020 to 56% in Michigan and 54% in Pennsylvania. This represents a decline of at least 20 percentage points. In the 2020 election, exit polls revealed that Biden received 92% of the Black vote in each state, underscoring the precipitous nature of the current decline.
Several factors contribute to this erosion of support. The primary reasons cited by respondents include dissatisfaction with Biden’s performance in office, concerns about his age and mental acuity, and discontent with his stance on international conflicts, particularly his support for Israel in its war against Hamas.
Despite a favorable view of Biden by 61% of Black voters in Michigan and 59% in Pennsylvania, these numbers are seen as weak for a constituency that has traditionally shown overwhelming support for the Democratic Party.
Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, is making notable inroads with Black voters in both states. The poll indicates that 15% of Black voters in Michigan now back Trump, a significant increase from the 9% who supported him in 2020. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s support has risen to 11%, up from 8% in the previous election. This uptick in support is particularly pronounced among Black men compared to Black women.
Suffolk University’s Political Research Center Director David Paleologos highlighted the challenge for Biden. “Since Biden won 13 times Trump’s support from Black voters in 2020, to maintain the same level of support, Biden would need to earn 13 new Black votes for every vote he loses to Trump,” Paleologos explained. This dynamic underscores why Trump senses an opportunity for improvement within the Black community.
The poll surveyed 500 Black voters in each state via landline and cell phone from June 9 to 13, 2024, with a margin of error of ± 4.4 percentage points.
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