School Enrollments Are Down, But Declining Birth Rates Only Tell Part Of The Story
Experts seem to be missing an important piece of the puzzle when trying to explain the reasons behind public school enrollment rates declining in Maryland and Virginia — while public school enrollment rates fall, homeschooling rates are increasing.
According to WTOP, public school enrollment rates have decreased in both states, and experts are citing the reasons as “declining birth rates, immigration and migration patterns, and housing costs.” While this is certainly the case by and large, another change appears to be affecting enrollment.
Homeschooling rates have increased in both states, likely affecting the rate of enrollment in public schools.
Notably, the University of Virginia (UVA) Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service released an enrollment projection for Virginia public schools in March. The data showed that in 2025 alone, K–12 enrollment dropped 1.2 percent or 14,939 students. Prior to that, enrollment rates had remained relatively stable from 2021 to 2024. The Cooper Center predicted that in 2030, enrollment will have fallen by 3 percent, or by 36,827 students.
Schools across the DMV are facing a major shift as enrollment declines. ⬇️🚌
From Prince William County in Virginia to Montgomery County in Maryland, districts are rethinking construction, staffing and how they use existing school buildings.https://t.co/p4G93caoon pic.twitter.com/rUtQIEl83h
— 7News DC (@7NewsDC) August 13, 2026
Meanwhile, homeschooling rates in Virginia have risen by 8,342 students from the 2022–23 school year to the 2025–26 school year, according to the Homeschool Hub State Data produced by Johns Hopkins Homeschool Hub. (Read more from “School Enrollments Are Down, But Declining Birth Rates Only Tell Part Of The Story” HERE)
