Tuesday's Elections Will Serve as Battleground for the Competing Ideological Groups Struggling for Control of Republican Party

Photo Credit: Ivan Couronne /AFP/GettyHours before its biggest political test since defeat in the 2012 national election, the Republican party is praying that voters in Virginia’s election for state governor on Tuesday prove more like the enthusiastic crowd gathered recently just outside the town of Norfolk.

Aging, overwhelmingly white – despite being hosted by the local Filipino cultural centre – and surrounded by the world’s largest naval base, the core supporters turning out at last-minute rallies like this for conservative candidate Ken Cuccinelli are as loyal as they come.

The problem is, there aren’t enough of them. Shortly before the opening prayer, organizers patrol the back of a half-empty room, gently prodding the elderly campaigners to stand closer together so they appear a tight throng before the watching television cameras. The stark math is mirrored by multiple opinion polls showing that the once-dominant Cuccinelli has slipped more than six points behind his Democratic rival Terry McAuliffe.

Both sides have spent the final few days preaching to the converted in similar small rallies up and down this swing state. Both camps are increasingly more pre-occupied with ensuring turnout among the political base than persuading any last-minute floating voters.

At recent McAuliffe rallies, even Barack Obama and his Democratic predecessor Bill Clinton have warned that the Democrats’ biggest danger lies in a low turnout, a particular problem in the “off-year” votes that follow presidential elections.

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