Before the Monday, Aug. 24, thousand-point down day, I warned readers of my investment letter to be ready for the market to correct, quite possibly via an “elevator drop” and to get ready to buy stocks on our list of attractive companies. Prior to the “mini flash crash” as I’ve heard it called, I warned here on MarketWatch that “things were getting bearish,” and “stocks were not properly priced.“ Smart investors spent the spring and summer raising cash and preparing a list of stocks and ETFs to buy when opportunities arose.
Retail investors are getting it half right, moving money out of stocks for the past year. Most have done so out of fear of the “next collapse,” as they did in early 2009 before finally reinvesting around 2012. This time, they are close to their portfolio highs from the middle 2000s and believe they should get out of the stock market before the next crash. That makes some sense, better to pre-panic than post-panic.
Investor fear, primarily among baby boomers, is probably well founded in the short-term. The world is facing serious economic headwinds driven by demographics and debts which I have covered in several columns, investor letters and recently in my monthly investor webinar. The combination of investor skepticism, a slow economy and a Federal Reserve that keeps talking tough makes it very probable that we are going to get another thousand-point down day very soon. In fact, I am pretty sure we will get two or three within the same few weeks.
How horrible will it get for the stock market? How far will emotional sellers and traders drive the markets down? Will it be the beginning of another financial collapse? Here’s what I think.
I believe fear and emotional selling will drive the stock market down into official bear-market territory, however, I have a hard time making a case for anything more than a run-of-the-mill bear market. It also seems to me that there is not enough stupid retail money left in the stock market to take it below the strong support level around 1550 on the S&P 500 for more than a week or two. For traders or those seeking a hedge, rolling put option positions on the SPDR S&P 500 SPY, +0.23% makes a lot of sense to me given those contracts are cheap and have potential large upside. (Read more from “The Next 1000-Point Down Day Is Coming” HERE)
https://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.png00Joe Millerhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngJoe Miller2015-11-11 00:28:502016-04-11 10:56:19The Next 1000-Point Down Day Is Coming
Spending by the Social Security Administration–which includes payments for Social Security and disability benefits as well as Supplemental Security Income payments and the administrative costs for these programs–hit a record $944,143,000,000 in fiscal 2015, according to data published by the U.S. Treasury.
Even in constant 2015 dollars (with adjustments made using the Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator), that was up $33,748,280,000 from the $910,394,720,000 the Social Security Administration spent in fiscal 2014.
As of September, there were 59,737,817 beneficiaries getting Social Security or disability benefits, according to the SSA. At the same time, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 148,800,000 people who had either a full- or part-time job in the United States. That means there were only 2.49 people with jobs for each of the 59,737,817 Social Security and disability beneficiaries.
At the same time, there were only 121,839,000 people with full-time jobs in the United States in September, according to BLS. Those 121,839,000 full-time job holders equaled about 2.04 for each of the 59,737,817 people getting Social Security or disability benefits.
The $944,143,000,000 spent by the Social Security Administration in fiscal 2015 equaled about $6,345 for each of the 148,800,000 persons in the country with a job as of September. It equaled about $7,749 for each of the 121,839,000 people with a full-time job. (Read more from “Social Security Administration Spending Hit Record in 2015” HERE)
https://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.png00Joe Millerhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngJoe Miller2015-11-10 21:44:482016-04-11 10:56:19Social Security Administration Spending Hit Record in 2015
#MillionStudentMarch activists want their demands met now — free college, the dissolution of all existing college debt, and a $15 per hour minimum wage for campus workers. They plan to demonstrate for this economic justice on campuses nationwide Thurs., Nov 12, emboldened by a perceived victory of forcing out the University of Missouri’s president through student protests.
They roared on Facebook: “This is PROOF that when we strike, we win!,” referencing the consolidated student hunger strikes over purported racism that led to President Tim Wolfe’s resignation. Million Student March asserts 100 campuses nationwide will participate in their Nov. 12 day of social justice fueled by crushing student debt, the mantra of solidarity and the heartbeat of socialism.
College, they say, is a basic human right, not a privilege. The Million Student March website gripes: “The United States is the richest country in the world, yet students have to take on crippling debt in order to get a college education. We need change, and change starts in the streets when people demand it. With students, college graduates, and workers united we can build a movement capable of winning debt-free college for all and a $15 minimum wage for all campus workers!”
U.S. college student loan debt exceeds $1.3 trillion, topping credit cards and auto loans, only second to home mortgages. The Wall Street Journal says the average student owes over $35,000 in loan debt by the time they graduate. Keely Mullen, one of the national event organizers, laments her anticipated $150,000 loan debt post-graduation. She insisted the only way to be competitive in today’s job market was to “take on an enormous amount of debt in order to get a college degree.”
She told U.S. Uncut students plan to cross-organize with other activist groups as part of their activism. “The student movement will have to link arms with labor unions, the national Fight for $15, the Black Lives Matter movement, and all other progressive social movements.” She added: “It won’t be quick or easy, but the power of the people united around clear and just demands is capable of achieving anything.” (Read more from “Million Student March Demands ‘Free College Now'” HERE)
By Theodore Schleifer. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump weighed in on the day’s controversy on Monday, floating the prospect of boycotting Starbucks after the coffee giant announced it would abandon its Christmas-themed cups.
“I have one of the most successful Starbucks, in Trump Tower. Maybe we should boycott Starbucks? I don’t know. Seriously, I don’t care. That’s the end of that lease, but who cares?” Trump told a crowd in Springfield, Illinois, on Monday. “If I become president, we’re all going to be saying Merry Christmas again, that I can tell you. That I can tell you.”
Trump’s comments, on the eve of the next Republican presidential debate, is his latest rhetoric to win over Christian evangelicals who are much of the base in states like Iowa and South Carolina. Trump is grappling with Ben Carson, the other Republican front-runner and an evangelical favorite, in those two early voting states. (Read more from “Donald Trump Thinks America Should Maybe Boycott This Major Food Chain” HERE)
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Trump Calls for Starbucks Boycott at Raucous Springfield Rally
By Monique Garcia and Rick Pearson. Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump stopped in the state’s capital city Monday for a raucous rally where he congratulated himself for strong ratings as host of “Saturday Night Live” and called for a boycott of Starbucks over holiday cups.
The hourlong event attracted thousands, from fans who wore the businessman and TV personality’s face on neckties to hecklers he chided from the stage to those who simply came to see the political theater.
Trump promised to be an “unpredictable” leader, taking jabs at Democratic candidates Hillary Rodham Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders as well as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, saying he dropped a joke aimed at Bush from Saturday’s edition of the sketch comedy show because it was “too nasty.”
“See? How nice am I?” Trump said to laughs.
The developer drew loud cheers when he called for a boycott of Starbucks after the coffee company dropped the words “Merry Christmas” from its annual holiday cups, and said the prospect of taking in Syrian refugees could amount to a “Trojan Horse” for the Islamic State. (Read more from “Trump Calls for Starbucks Boycott at Raucous Springfield Rally” HERE)
A biography of Barack Obama designed for fourth graders and approved under the new federal Common Core curriculum standards portrays white voters as racists, hell bent on preventing Obama from becoming president.
The book in question, entitled “Barack Obama,” is published by Scholastic, and is now being read by elementary school students under the Common Core program, Red Flag News reports.
The book tells the story of Obama’s historic campaign to become the nation’s first black president. So far so good. But along the way the text paints white voters in a rather unflattering light: “Some people said Americans weren’t ready for that much change. Sure Barack was a nice fellow, they said. But white voters would never vote for a black president,” the book reads.
The book then mentions Obama’s former minister Jeremiah Wright: “Obama’s former pastor called the country a failure,” it reads. “God would damn the United States for mistreating its black citizens, he said.”
The text makes no mention of the fact that millions of white voters did, in fact, vote for Obama. Nor does it mention that Obama distanced himself from Wright during his campaign. (Read more from “Common Core Text Portrays White Voters as Obama-Hating Racists” HERE)
https://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.png00kathleenhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngkathleen2015-11-10 00:24:572016-04-11 10:56:19Common Core Text Portrays White Voters as Obama-Hating Racists
Andrew Kaczynski of BuzzFeed writes that a Yale alumnus confirms the details of an anecdote from Dr. Ben Carson’s biography which the Wall Street Journal claimed to throw into doubt.
From BuzzFeed:
A former staff member of the Yale Record says that he recalls many of the details of a prank that Dr. Ben Carson wrote about in an autobiography.
The incident has been the subject of media coverage in recent days, after the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that it found no evidence to support Carson’s claim that he was a victim of a hoax that led him to take a fake psychology test, as he wrote in his 1990 autobiography, Gifted Hands.
In an interview with BuzzFeed News on Monday, Curtis Bakal, an editorial assistant at the satirical Yale Record who says he helped write the fake test, said he was “99% certain the way Carson remembers it is correct.”
(Read more from “Wall Street Journal Humiliation: Ben Carson Hit Piece Debunked By… Buzzfeed” HERE)
https://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.png00Joe Millerhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngJoe Miller2015-11-10 00:23:422016-04-11 10:56:20Wall Street Journal Humiliation: Ben Carson Hit Piece Debunked By… Buzzfeed
Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister has issued a stark warning that the ongoing migrant crisis could break up the European Union (EU).
Minister of Foreign and European Affairs, Jean Asselborn, said that the migrant crisis could lead to the reintroduction of border controls between EU member states and disintegration of the EU itself, reports German television news channel N24.
Mr Asselborn, whose country currently holds the rotational Presidency of the Council of the EU, drew attention to a contrast in approaches from member states. He claims that Germany and most EU countries understand the application of the 1951 Convention and Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees, but that some members fail to adopt properly the values of the organisation which he said are not limited to tangible treaty rights.
“The glue that holds us together,” he said, “is still the culture of human values. And this misguided nationalism can lead to actual war.”
Apparently rejecting voters’ growing discontent with migrant policy across the EU, Mr Asselborn accused certain politicians and political parties of exploiting the issue of migration and stoking fears. (Read more from “Here’s Who Admits the Migrant Crisis Could Lead to ‘Actual War'” HERE)
https://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.png00Joe Millerhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngJoe Miller2015-11-10 00:22:462016-04-11 10:56:20Here’s Who Admits the Migrant Crisis Could Lead to ‘Actual War’
The risk of a global financial crash has increased because a slowdown in China and decline in world trade are undermining the stability of highly indebted emerging economies, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The Washington-based lender of last resort said the scale of borrowing by emerging market countries, whose debts are vulnerable to rising interest rates in the US, mean policymakers need to act quickly to shore up the financial system.
José Viñals, the IMF’s financial counselor, said the threat of instability and recession hanging over economies including China, Brazil, Turkey and Malaysia was one of a “triad of risks” that could knock 3% off global GDP. The second, he said, was the legacy of debt and disharmony in Europe, while the third is centered on battered global markets that are more likely to transmit shocks rather than cushion the blow.
At the very least, central banks would need to remain vigilant and be prepared to increase their stimulus programs should difficulties in emerging market countries spill over into the financial system.
Addressing the prospect of an interest rate rise in the US, Viñals said there was little reason to tighten monetary policy before Christmas while inflationary pressures and wage rises remain low. “The risks of a premature tightening are greater than those of waiting two or three more months,” he said. (Read more from “Risk of Global Financial Crash Has Increased” HERE)
https://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.png00Joe Millerhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngJoe Miller2015-11-10 00:20:582016-04-11 10:56:20Risk of Global Financial Crash Has Increased
Over the past few decades, Israel has served as the harbinger for everything the Islamic jihad has wrought on western civilization. The suicide bombings began there and have now become widespread throughout the world. Now Israel is suffering from the most devastating form of terror – the ubiquitous threat of spontaneous stabbing attacks from Muslims living among them.
Well, it didn’t take long for the knife intifada to come to America, too.
Last Wednesday, 18-year-old Faisal Mohammad, in a scene eerily similar to what is happening in Israel on a daily basis, went on a stabbing rampage against his classmates at University of California Merced. Thanks to the heroic interference from Byron Price, a construction worker on scene, only four people were injured and nobody was killed. Mohammed was eventually shot dead by campus police after arriving to the scene. But a manifesto written by Mohammad, discovered by the coroner after his death, showed that he intended to “kill a lot of people.” The manifesto also contained references to Allah.
Every time one of these attacks occur, the first reaction from most observers – to the extent they even recognize Jihad as the root cause – is to suspect ISIS of being involved. In reality, what we are now facing in this country, much like Israelis are confronted with in their neighborhoods, is a widespread freelance Jihad that is even more dangerous than the targeted command-and-control attacks of the past that were the hallmark of Al Qaeda.
In Israel today, many of the attacks are not emanating from “Palestinian” Arabs living in Judea and Samaria but from the 1.5 million Israeli Arabs who have citizenship and work among them. The success of the global cyber jihad is lighting all of the fuses around the world in a way that presents the West with a greater existential threat than isolated “9-11 style” attacks.
Consider the following finding from a recent counterterrorism report put out by the House Committee on Homeland Security:
There have been more U.S.-based jihadist terror cases in 2015 than in any full year since 9/11. The number of U.S. terrorist cases involving homegrown Islamist extremists has gone from 38 in July 2010 to 127 today—more than a three-fold increase in just five years.
You wouldn’t know it from the media coverage or the silence from most elected officials, but we have suffered from a number of homegrown terror attacks this year. These attacks are not directed by Al Qaeda or ISIS, they are inspired by their change in focus to fard ‘ayn – the individual duty to carry out Sharia law.
At its core, this is the problem with the mass immigration from the Middle East and Obama’s imminent plan to bring in thousands of more Islamic refugees from Somalia and Syria – a plan that has, thus far, gone unchallenged by Congress. It’s not just a threat of admitting a handful of professionally trained terrorists. It’s the certainty of bringing in a large percentage of those who believe in Sharia law and will inevitably subvert our culture and be lured into global Jihad. We are witnessing the suicide of a nation with our immigration policies and the willful disregard of the threat posed by the Muslim Brotherhood here at home. What is especially tragic is that we are not learning the vivid lessons of Europe and Israel.
With this clear and present danger staring us in the face, we don’t need a political leadership with a particular degree of sentience to realize the problem. We need those with the courage and common sense to put aside the political correctness and spare this country – the “Great Satan” (as the Jihadists endearingly call the U.S.) – from becoming as endangered as the “Little Satan.” (For more from the author of “The Knife Intifada… Coming to a City Near You” please click HERE)
https://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.png00Joe Millerhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngJoe Miller2015-11-10 00:18:162016-04-11 10:56:20The Knife Intifada… Coming to a City Near You
The Thomas More Law Center, a national public interest law firm based in Ann Arbor, MI, late last week, filed a lawsuit against West Virginia Governor Earl Tomblin and several state officials to stop the state’s implementation of Common Core and its participation in the Smarter Balanced Assessment Consortium (“SBAC”). The lawsuit claims that West Virginia’s funding and participation in Common Core violates the U.S. Constitution, as well as federal and state laws that prohibit the federal government from usurping control over public school education. The lawsuit was filed in the Kanawha Circuit Court in West Virginia on behalf of two West Virginia taxpayers.
The Thomas More Law Center (TMLC) is co-counsel in the case with D. John Sauer of the James Otis Law Group based in St. Louis, MO. Two prominent West Virginia attorneys, Jeffrey Kimble and Ryan Kennedy of Robinson & McElwee, PLLC, are assisting as local counsel.
TMLC’s lawsuit seeks to stop West Virginia’s payment of membership fees of over $1.5 million per year on the grounds that SBAC, to which West Virginia is a member, is an unconstitutional compact because it was never approved by Congress. The Compact Clause of the United States Constitution provides that “[n]o state shall, without the consent of Congress . . . enter into any agreement or compact with another state.”
West Virginia’s SBAC membership agreement forces West Virginia schools to align their curriculum with Common Core.
The two Plaintiffs named in the lawsuit, Angela Summers and Fred Dailey, are prominent members of West Virginia Against Common Core and for over two years have voiced deep concerns about their state’s participation in Common Core.
Summers has five grandchildren. She began her battle against Common Core in 2013 over the new Common Core aligned math being taught to her grandchildren. Her concerns grew as she became aware of the federal government’s intrusion into local classrooms, federalized collection of student data, and the requirement of excessive testing. Summers says that the battle against Common Core is a battle “we cannot lose. If we lose, we will lose our children. If we lose our children, we will lose this nation.”
Dailey, who also has grandchildren, is an Environmental Engineer with a Masters degree. He worked as a Plant Manager for a major Chemical Manufacturing facility for 10 years prior to retiring. Dailey explains one of his reasons for getting involved in the lawsuit, “I strongly believe that the education of our children is best done locally with choices made by parents, teachers, and locally elected Boards of Education.”
The Thomas More Law Center and Sauer filed a similar lawsuit on behalf of state taxpayers against North Dakota officials five months ago. A decision in that case is still pending.
Both the North Dakota and West Virginia lawsuits follow the success of a previous lawsuit filed by Mr. Sauer that stopped Missouri’s implementation of Common Core. That case is currently on appeal. The Thomas More Law Center filed a friend of the court brief in support of upholding the Missouri district court decision.
Forty-three states initially joined either SBAC or the Partnership for Assessment of Readiness for College and Careers (“PARCC”), to implement Common Core under federal government oversight. However, several states have since canceled their membership due to growing opposition from parents and teachers.
Richard Thompson, President and Chief Counsel of the Thomas More Law Center, commented on behalf of the Law Center, “The unspoken agenda of Common Core is to undermine the fundamental right of parents to control the education of their children. It’s an insidious bureaucratic system in which the Federal Government takes control of what and how American students learn. Teachers who complain about the Common Core are muzzled by threats of discipline or dismissal.”
In school districts across the country, administrators subject children, who obey their parents’ wishes and decline to participate in Common Core standardized testing, to unbelievable punishments. Students have been suspended, refused entrance into their classrooms, refused bathroom privileges, stripped of their academic and extracurricular honors and awards, removed from athletic participation, and punished with “sit-and-stare” policies. “Sit-and-stare” is a practice that forces students to sit at their assigned desk with no materials, books, or paper in silence for multiple hours during testing.
As a part of its efforts to help parents combat Common Core, the Thomas More Law Center developed a Test Refusal and Student Privacy Protection Form and a Common Core Resource Page as a general reference and guide. (For more from the author of “Lawsuit Filed Against State Adopting Common Core, Claims Unconstitutional Federal Usurpation of Public Education” please click HERE)
https://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.png00kathleenhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngkathleen2015-11-10 00:15:202016-04-11 10:56:20Lawsuit Filed Against State Adopting Common Core, Claims Unconstitutional Federal Usurpation of Public Education
