Of all the polling that takes place over the next three weeks, Michigan might get the highest profile. Mitt Romney has strong ties to Michigan; his father was a popular governor in the state, and most people assumed Romney would not have to expend much energy there to win a Republican primary. The first hint of trouble came two weeks ago in a Rasmussen poll that showed Romney only 15 points up over Newt Gingrich but only at 38%, roughly what he got in 2008 against two strong challengers. I wrote at the time that Michigan could provide an opening for an unpleasant surprise for Team Romney, and today’s ARG poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters has delivered it:

Rick Santorum leads the Michigan Republican presidential primary with 33%. Santorum is followed by Mitt Romney with 27%, Newt Gingrich with 21%, and Ron Paul with 12%.

Of course, this could be an outlier, as none of the previous polling in Michigan has had Santorum out of the teens. Now, though, Santorum takes 42% of the Republicans surveyed in the poll (72% of the sample), with Gingrich coming in a distant second at 24%. Romney wins nearly a majority of independents at 48%, with the other three candidates in a virtual tie in the teens. Santorum now leads among Tea Party adherents 37/29 over Gingrich, and comes in a close second to Romney among non-TP adherents 35/30, with Gingrich at 14%. Romney tops Santorum among women only by six points, 39/33, while Santorum beats Gingrich among men 33/28, with Romney at 17%.

Team Romney had better hope that this is an outlier. A Michigan loss would seriously damage Romney’s electability argument, and would give Santorum a great deal of momentum heading into Super Tuesday. Is it an outlier, though? PPP tweeted yesterday that their multiple-day survey in the state so far showed Santorum up by as much as 10-15 points over Romney, and has Newt Gingrich losing to Ron Paul. Those results just got published, and Santorum leads 39/24:

Rick Santorum’s taken a large lead in Michigan’s upcoming Republican primary. He’s at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.

Santorum’s rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich. Santorum’s becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support.

Read More at hotair.com By Ed Morrissey, Hot Air

Eric Holder, the top law enforcement officer in the nation has a proven track record of lying to Congress and the American people. Some members of Congress have been debating on whether or not to cite the US Attorney General for contempt of Congress for his testimony, or lack thereof, before them on Operation Fast and Furious.

Ever since the botched guns to Mexican drug cartels fiasco was made public, documentation proves that Holder has continuously lied about his knowledge of the operation. Even when presented with irrefutable evidence of his knowledge, he sat before Congress and lied to their faces without batting an eye.

I watched part of Holder’s testimony before Congress and his whole mannerism was that of a pathological liar. One of my close family members is a pathological liar who believes their lies to be the truth once they leave their lips and it is virtually impossible to convince them otherwise. I confronted the family member with a tape recording of their lie and they stood there and denied it was them or the tape was real. I saw that same trait in America’s top cop.

Yet, most likely without realizing it, Holder actually told the truth for once when he admitted to Congress that Obama wants to reinstate a ban on assault weapons,

“This administration has consistently favored the reinstitution of the assault weapons ban. It is something that we think was useful in the past with regard to the reduction that we’ve seen in crime, and certainly would have a positive impact on our relationship and the crime situation in Mexico.”

Chris Cox, Executive Director of the National Rifle Association’s Institute for Legislative Action, summed up Holder’s statement and actions this way,

“The Obama administration — particularly Eric Holder’s Justice Department — oversaw an epic scandal whereby our own federal government illegally funneled thousands of firearms into the hands of Mexican drug lords. This contributed to the death of one U.S. Border Patrol agent and hundreds of Mexicans.

Read More at Godfather Politics By Da Tagliare, Godfather Politics

When Ronald Reagan said that big government undermined the economy, some people dismissed his comments because of his philosophical belief in liberty.

And when I discuss my work on the economic impact of government spending, I often get the same reaction.

This is why it’s important that a growing number of establishment outfits are slowly but surely coming around to the same point of view.

The European Central Bank published a study showing “…a significant negative effect of the size of government on growth.”

A study by two Harvard economists found that “large adjustments in fiscal policy, if based on well-targeted spending cuts, have often led to expansions.”

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development noted in recent research that welfare programs are economically destructive because they lure people into dependency because “net disposable income would increase despite putting in fewer hours.”

A study from the International Monetary Fund concluded that “Cuts to pension and health entitlements had the most beneficial effect on economic growth.”

Read More at Big Government By Dan Mitchell, Big Government

Bound by a common desire to deny President Obama a second term, restive activists gathering Thursday for the 39th annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington find themselves lacking a clear champion in the suddenly scrambled Republican race to choose an alternative.

CPAC attendees — expected to number more than 6,000 from across the country — pride themselves on maintaining varying degrees of independence from the GOP. The three-day gathering kicks off two days after primaries and caucuses in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri raised doubts once again among conservative voters about presumed GOP front-runner Mitt Romney.

Rick Santorum, a social conservative and the big winner in Tuesday’s vote, “has energized his supporters and the family-issue conservatives coming to CPAC,” said Floyd Brown, president of the Western Center for Journalism, a conservative watchdog group, who works with conservative and tea party activists across the country.

“His victories may be a surprise to the GOP elite in Washington, D.C., but conservatives and tea party activists outside the Beltway are not ready to accept the designated Beltway choice, Mitt Romney,” Mr. Brown said.

Added Donald J. Devine, a conservative author and former Reagan administration official, “The mood of conservatives is disappointment that their candidates for president are so weak. They are probably confident they’ll win the White House even with these candidates, although I am not confident.

Read More at The Washington Times By Ralph Z. Hallow, The Washington Times