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Why Do Politicians Ignore the Futility and Collateral Damage of Lockdowns?

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Imagine administering a dose of chemotherapy to a healthy patient with no sign of cancer? After all, it can only help, right? That has been the attitude of our government as it continues to push lockdown policies and the trickle-down panic that flows from them – without any evidence that they help mitigate the virus and without any regard for their side effects.

California never really emerged from its original lockdown, yet Gov. Gavin Newson is now reinstituting the closure of many businesses. Evidently, a few dozen people carefully spaced in a gym or salon are a greater threat than thousands of people jammed pack in uncontrolled protests.

The Houston mayor is calling for another lockdown as well, with no mention of the fact that George Floyd had the largest funeral held in his city (while everyone else had to be buried without a proper funeral) and Houston police began contracting the virus in greater numbers right after the protests.

But they all fail to learn the lessons of the first lockdown – in that they don’t work to stop the deaths and they cause so many more excess deaths from the inimical side effects.

Lockdowns kill more people from the side effects

According to a recent published by Jama Network, there were 87,000 excess deaths from March 1 to April 25, but only 56,246 (65%) were attributed to COVID-19. What happened to the remaining 31,000 excess deaths? Until now, supporters of lockdown like Dr. Anthony Fauci have attributed those excess deaths to an undercount of the virus death toll. However, the study’s authors found that “The 5 states with the most COVID-19 deaths experienced large proportional increases in deaths from nonrespiratory underlying causes, including diabetes (96%), heart diseases (89%), Alzheimer disease (64%), and cerebrovascular diseases (35%).”

Clearly, as we observed during the peak of the lockdown, so many people were scared to come in for other urgent treatments as a result of the fear generated by lockdown policies. Also, thanks to the suspension of other medical maintenance procedures and critical but not emergent surgeries, people likely died from untreated ailments.

The numbers were particularly jarring in states like California and Texas, which saw 55% and 64% of its excess deaths respectively attributed to non-COVID-19 deaths. These were states where the virus barely spread during April but the lockdown likely shut down and scared off other medical care like it did in the harder hit states. Thus, for much of the country outside of the northeast until May, the lockdown was the bigger plague than the virus.

When the economic and mental health factors are coupled with the denied care, one study estimated that 65,000 people would die per month of lockdown. Also, given that the victims of lockdown, on average, were younger than those of the virus, they estimated that the lockdown, over its entire duration, has caused the loss of 1.5 million life years, as compared to 800,000 life years from the virus itself. Do we really want to continue propagating a feedback loop of panic that results in more deaths for a strategy that is completely unproven?

Lockdowns simply don’t work to stop a virus

Whether you compare state to state or country to country, there is absolutely no correlation between positive results and lockdowns, especially after the virus had already become so pervasive. Lockdowns have been in place in so many states like California and yet the virus still spread. Other states like Wisconsin haven’t had restrictions for two months because of a state Supreme Court ruling and has had very few hospitalizations or deaths.

J.P. Morgan conducted a data analysis on a scatter diagram of all 50 states and found that “reopening dates also don’t predict infections and hospitalizations.”

“There are no easy answers for why US infections have soared recently; reopening dates, mobility changes and other empirically measured behaviors do not lead to higher infections in any statistically consistent way,” wrote the major financial institution in its latest economic assessment.

The reality is that the timing of the spike occurred way too late to blame on the late April/early May openings. On the other hand, they have coincided perfectly with the mass protests, and in the case of the border states, with Mexico’s peak from its first round. Miami’s mayor admitted the demonstrations played a major role in the resurgence in Florida, which, unlike northeastern states, did not achieve enough immunity to withstand such ubiquitous mass gatherings. Either way, people are forgetting that the virus will always spread to any place that has not already achieved 15%-20% seroprevalence, irrespective of human factors.

The virus does not go away simply because of a lockdown. Countries like Israel and Australia are learning that now. They are similar to America’s south and west in the sense that they locked down early before the virus spread much (unlike in America’s northeast where it was too late). However, lockdowns don’t kill the virus. They kill many citizens from the collateral damage and just delay the ability to achieve herd immunity with a less vulnerable population.

This is why Sweden is pretty much done with the virus, having achieved de facto herd immunity without having shut down the country and without suffering all of the collateral deaths. Their only fault was failing to protect senior care facilities. Nearly 90% of all deaths were among those over 70 years old and there were more than twice as many deaths among those over 90 than under 70. It’s likely that many of them were going to die within a few months or actually died of old age, but thanks to Sweden’s liberal coding of COVID-19 deaths, they were included in the count. This is why a view of their excess deaths this year compared to past years shows almost no significant epidemic to speak of.

Sweden’s numbers are getting better every week and they are now in a period of negative excess deaths. Again, all without any lockdowns or mask mandates. Now, they are in better shape than every other country that forestalled herd immunity at a very painful cost to their medical care, mental health, and economy.

For such tough chemotherapy as a lockdown, shouldn’t we have to see results? How many more states can continue intermittent lockdowns and mask mandates for months while the cases continue to spread before we realize that this is a farce?

What we should really do is shield the vulnerable and avoid large gatherings like mass riots. That way we can achieve herd immunity through the less vulnerable and without spreading it too rapidly as to overwhelm the system. Yet, these are the two things most governors failed to do, and in the case of 26 million protesters, they actually encouraged and facilitated the greatest mass gatherings in recent memory – in midst of a pandemic they believe should lock us in our homes. Are we going to allow these mendacious politicians to get away with this libel against our liberty and lives? (For more from the author of “Why Do Politicians Ignore the Futility and Collateral Damage of Lockdowns?” please click HERE)

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Churches Fight Back Against Second Shutdown

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When California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that large sections of California would have to shut down businesses and churches because of a coronavirus resurgence, many religious leaders refused to comply with the order.

The Monday order, which allows churches to continue socially distant services outside, effectively sends some of the most densely populated counties back into a full-on lockdown for an indefinite period of time. Newsom in a Monday press conference said that he expects the virus to keep spreading unless the state remains locked down because “COVID-19 is not going away anytime soon until there is a vaccine or an effective therapy.”

But even with the state’s caution, some church leaders say that shutting down again is not an option. San Francisco and Western America Russian Orthodox Archbishop Kyrill, in an open letter to Newsom, said that the state’s strictures on religious services, especially on singing, are “open discrimination,” reminiscent of the “the era of godless persecutions in the U.S.S.R.”

Kyrill noted that while the Orthodox Church had complied with the state’s previous shutdown, forcing members to participate in Lent and Easter services online only, he was upset to see the state’s permissiveness to protesters demanding racial justice.

“We now observe a contradiction in that mass protests take place everywhere, at which absolutely all precautions are violated with impunity,” he wrote, adding that the church will “defend the rights” of its members to continue to worship. (Read more from “Churches Fight Back Against Second Shutdown” HERE)

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New Study: Millennials Think Their Risk From COVID-19 Is Exponentially More Than the True Threat

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There is no vaccine, effective treatment, or herd immunity for the virus of panic and fear sown by the media that is propagated straight to people’s brains from their smartphones. And unlike with coronavirus, the young are more seriously afflicted with this intractable disease than seniors, according to a new study.

Four researchers published a working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research studying people’s perceived personal health risks associated with COVID-19. The most striking result of their survey of 1,500 Americans from May 6 to May 13 is that the younger the age of the respondent, the more the individual seemed concerned about the virus being deadly to them – the exact inverse of the true threat assessment of the virus.

It’s reflective of a generation that is inundated with Apple, Google, and Yahoo’s sensational news headlines on their phones and, unlike their parents and grandparents, have no minds of their own to decipher the information and interpret it with the proper context.

When asked by the four researchers, who hail from Harvard, Oxford, and Università Bocconi, out of “1,000 people very similar to you” how many would die from COVID-19 over the next nine weeks, the median estimated guess by respondents aged 18-34 was 20, or 2%. In other words, the average Millennial thought that 2% of everyone like them would die within nine weeks from the virus. In contrast, in contrast, the respondents aged 70 years or older, which is exponentially more at risk, asses their risk of dying at about 1%.

What is the infection fatality rate (IFR) for younger people? The CDC estimates a 0.05% IFR for everyone in the age cohort of 0-49. Other estimates based on Spain serology tests broken down by age suggest an even lower IFR for those 18-49.

But that is only the risk once someone contracts the virus. When you couple the chance of not getting the virus together with the chance of not dying from it once infected, the rate is even lower. Four infectious disease doctors in Canada estimate that the individual rate of death from COVID-19 for people under 65 years of age in Canada is six per million people, or 0.0006% – 1 in 166,666, which is “roughly equivalent to the risk of dying from a motor vehicle accident during the same time period.” Those numbers are even lower for people under 35. In other words, the respondents in this study overestimated their risk of dying by at least a factor of 3,000.

According to the CDC, the IFR for those over 65 is 1.3%, although it is heavily skewed by nursing home deaths in the numerator. For seniors in better health, the numbers are much lower. Thus, the senior respondents in the survey are much closer to reality in their thinking.

According to the CDC, there have been 944 COVID-19 deaths among those aged 15-34. And that is with a liberal definition of a COVID death that has included young people who died of alcohol poisoning, gunshots, and drug overdoses, which, incidentally, are increasing because of the panic and social isolation, which in itself is exponentially disproportionate to the threat of the virus itself.

Now consider the top causes of death for youngsters, courtesy of a table published by Avik Roy last month. In 2016, there were 37,879 deaths by unintentional injury among those 18-34, which obviously is very much influenced by car accidents. That is 40 times the number of deaths from the virus. There were 10,548 deaths by homicide, more than 11 times greater than from the virus.

How many Millennials do you know who think twice before getting into a car or engaging in a fun-seeking activity that could result in injury or death? And remember, while accidents are more likely to occur among reckless people, they can and do end lives of all people. The few virus deaths for those under 35, on the other hand, are almost all among those with specific serious heart conditions or comorbidities.

The answer is very simple. People’s phones are not blowing up with news of people dying in car crashes every second. Smartphones and the information that pings their users are like the Bible for this generation of American youth. The same source of their anxiety over catching the virus is the same source that made them temporarily suspend that anxiety to protest in the streets in large crowds. They are the same people who believe black youth are more likely to be killed by police than by gang members. For Millennials, the media is like a game of Simon Says. It’s an amazing contrast from the youth of the 1960s who wore T-shirts saying, “Question authority.”

This disproportionate degree of panic and fear sown by herd mentality and magnified by technology is not cost-free. When you have young people thinking their risk of dying is thousands of times greater than the actual threat, they can resort to extreme behavior that is more dangerous than the virus. Perhaps this is why drug overdoses are spiking in some states.

This point was driven home in a paper co-authored by D.A. Henderson, the former dean of Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, who is widely credited with helping to eradicate smallpox. In that 2006 publication from Johns Hopkins, Henderson and three other authors note that lockdowns would produce so many negative effects that “this mitigation measure should be eliminated from serious consideration.”

Perhaps the most destructive element of lockdown is the panic and fear that such severe measures help confirm, in this case, wrongly so, in the minds of the young and impressionable. As the paper concludes, “Experience has shown that communities faced with epidemics or other adverse events respond best and with the least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least disrupted.”

In other words, we need to flatten the fear. (For more from the author of “New Study: Millennials Think Their Risk From COVID-19 Is Exponentially More Than the True Threat” please click HERE)

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Teens Are Dressing up as Mask-Wearing Grandmas to Score Alcohol

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. . .Gen Z has discovered as they’ve updated the fake ID for the COVID-19 era, hitting up liquor stores dressed as elderly grandmas wearing coronavirus face masks.

The “prank” has taken social-media platform TikTok by storm, with videos of users bedecked as boozehound bubbies — seemingly victorious, bottles in hand — racking up millions of views.

That you get liquor before you turn 21 is, we’re sure, just a bonus.

“PSA: use ur fakes as much as possible bc if you wear a mask they can’t see ur whole face lol,” one adolescent posted to her not-of-legal-age brethren. (Read more from “Teens Are Dressing up as Mask-Wearing Grandmas to Score Alcohol” HERE)

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Hong Kong Virologist Who Exposed Coronavirus Cover-Up: ‘We Don’t Have Much Time’

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A Hong Kong virologist who fled to the U.S. earlier this year told “Bill Hemmer Reports” in an exclusive interview Monday that lives could have been saved if the Chinese government hadn’t censored her work.

“This is a huge pandemic we have seen in the world,” Yan Li-Meng told host Bill Hemmer. “It’s more than anything we’ve known in human history. So, the timing is very, very important. If we can stop it early, we can save lives.”

. . . She told Hemmer that Beijing government knew in December that more than 40 citizens had already been infected with the virus and “human-to-human transmissions [were] already [occurring] at that time.”

An intelligence dossier compiled by the Five Eyes intelligence agenices that was leaked to an Australian newspaper in May stated that Chinese authorities denied that the virus could be spread between humans until Jan. 20, “despite evidence of human-human transmission from early December.” As late as Jan. 14, the World Health Organization had stated that there was “no clear evidence” for human-to-human transmission of COVID-19.

. . .”I am waiting to tell all the things I know, provide all the evidence to the U.S. Government,” Yan added. “And I want them to understand, and I also want the U.S. people to understand how terrible this is. It is not what you have seen … This is something very different. We have to chase the true evidence and get the real evidence because this is a key part to stop this pandemic. We don’t have much time.” (Read more from “Hong Kong Virologist Who Exposed Coronavirus Cover-Up: ‘We Don’t Have Much Time'” HERE)

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Amazon Bans Bestselling Book ‘China Virus’

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Amazon is known for banning books that it says are medically-related misinformation about the coronavirus but now it seems to also be banning books that focus on the politics of it.

Amazon has banned and deleted the listing of a new book about the politics of the coronavirus outbreak, particularly as it pertains to Canada. The book, called China Virus: How Justin Trudeau’s Pro-Communist Ideology is Putting Canadians in Danger by journalist Ezra Levant and became available on Amazon.ca on July 10. . .

It’s clear that levant writes fiery books meant to provoke, get attention, and push boundaries. But why should his latest book be banned?

In an email sent to the author, Ezra Levant, Amazon claims the book contains information contradicting “official sources” of coronavirus information.

“Due to the rapidly changing nature of information around the COVID-19 virus, we are referring customers to official sources for health information about the virus. As a result, we are not offering your book for sale,” part of the email read. (Read more from “Amazon Bans Bestselling Book ‘China Virus'” HERE)

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JAW-DROPPING NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE REPORT: School Closures Based on Politics, Not Science

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Adapted from a Twitter thread by Newman Nahas

The most important evidence regarding pediatric transmission of COVID-19 comes from Iceland, and their study published in The New England Journal of Medicine.

Be suspicious of any expert ignoring this paper and discussing anecdotes instead.

The data for the study come from Iceland’s systematic screening of its population.

It was based on a population-representative sample (identified without respect to symptomatic status), and a sample based on presence of symptoms.

The study isolated SARS-CoV-2 samples from every positive case, sequenced genome of virus, and tracked the mutation patterns.

This analysis, along with contact tracing, allowed the authors to identify definitively who passed the virus to whom.

This study is unique.

Based on this, the senior author concluded that:

“[E]ven if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents.“

This is huge.

The genetic analysis in this study is the most direct evidence of the direction of transmission. And this evidence shows that children must be less likely to transmit than adults.

No other way to view this. These datasets are basically irrefutable.

Note: your cousin’s friend who heard about some stuff . . . almost certainly didn’t sequence any genomes.

The same is true of the news reports of isolated instances of school outbreaks.

Though these accounts usually proclaim hysterically that children are super-spreaders, their conclusions seem never to be based on actual tracing (much less deeper genetic analyses). Never.

Yet these stories are getting more press than Iceland.

This is especially weird here, as Iceland is not an outlier. It’s results are also corroborated all over the world.

In fact, at this point so many datasets on point, it’s overwhelming.

Here are two examples.

• Ireland: Researchers compared infected children with infected adults. Despite identifying a total of 722 contacts for the infected children, the study found not a single instance of an infected child passing on the virus. In contrast, the adults who were infected, had many fewer contacts – 102 – and yet did pass on the infection.

• Netherlands: A report by the ministry of health in the Netherlands, based on extensive contact tracing data, also found almost no disease spread by infected patients 20 and under at all. The authors of the study concluded:

Data from the Netherlands confirms . . . children play a minor role in the spread of the novel coronavirus. The virus is mainly spread between adults and from adult family members to children. The spread of COVID-19 among children or from children to adults is less common.

They included the helpful chart depicted above.

Thus, we are faced with two hypotheses

Children play an equal role in transmission
Children play a meaningfully reduced role in transmission.

Hypothesis 1 explains the stories out Israel and other isolated cases of seeming pediatric spread.

But it can not explain the data out of Iceland, Ireland, France, Netherlands, Australia, Denmark, and numerous other datasets.

Therefore, it explains only a subset of the data.

Hypothesis 2 however can explain all the data.

It can explain Ireland, etc. and the stories of pediatric transmission (because it doesn’t deny the possibility of pediatric spread, just suggests its lower probability).

In fact, looking at the set of evidence taken as a whole, the obvious hypothesis that jumps out is not that children must play an equal role in transmission.

But rather that…

Children must play a reduced role

Thus, the alarmist claiming kids are super-spreaders are trying to base policy on a hypothesis that looks only at a sliver of the data.

That would be bad enough.

But what they are doing is worse.

They are not just ignoring tons of data. But ignoring the most systematic and in favor of the most anecdotal.

Ignoring the genetic analysis out of Iceland b ecause of an impressionistic news report is not science. It’s sleight of hand. And a poor one at that.

Footnote: I don’t discuss the risks to children here (but rather risk from). That is because at this point the first issue is settled. The risk to children is staggeringly low, as @d_spiegel has put it.

Here is an up-to-date literature review by Dr Munro. I have not seen anything as comprehensive.

[Editor’s note]: if you think school closures are about the children, well, then you’ve never heard the president of one of the largest teacher’s unions declare: “It’s not about kids, it’s about power“. They’re trying to stop you, stop charter schools, and stop Trump. Reject this bullsh**.

(For more from the author of “JAW-DROPPING NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE REPORT: School Closures Based on Politics, Not Science” please click HERE)

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Coronavirus Phase 4 Stimulus Bill Coming

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White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Monday he could “conclusively” confirm a phase 4 coronavirus relief package is on its way as many Americans’ financial futures remain uncertain because of coronavirus.

“As you read the reports and talk to people on both sides of the aisle on the Hill, it is increasingly clear that there will be an additional package,” Kudlow told “Varney and Co.” “We will try to make it targeted, we will try to incentivize not just work, although work is crucial, and going back to work. We want to incentivize investments, we want a pro-growth package.”

The president has publicly supported provisions like a payroll tax holiday, “modest” return to work bonuses, unemployment reform, a Paycheck Protection Program extension, targeted direct assistance and a capital gains tax holiday, Kudlow said. (Read more from “Coronavirus Phase 4 Stimulus Bill Coming” HERE)

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California Shuts Back Down

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California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday ordered a halt to indoor activities at certain businesses statewide as cases of coronavirus surge in the country’s most populous state.

Newsom, a Democrat, announced during a press briefing that all bars across the state must close up shop and that restaurants, wineries, tasting rooms, family entertainment centers, zoos, museums and card rooms must suspend indoor activities.

The governor also announced that all gyms, places of worship, malls, personal care services, barbershops, salons, and non-critical offices in counties on the state’s “monitoring list” had to shut down under the new order. The order affects more than 30 counties which are home to about 80 percent of California’s population.

“We’ve made this point on multiple occasions and that is, we’re moving back into a modification mode of our original stay-at-home order,” Newsom said during his press briefing. “This continues to be a deadly disease.”

As of Monday, the state had reported more than 320,000 COVID-19 cases and more than 7,000 deaths, with 23 people dying from the virus since Sunday. Los Angeles County – the country’s most populous county – leads both the state and the country in number of confirmed COVID-19 cases with more than 133,000, according to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. (Read more from “California Shuts Back Down” HERE)

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Man Accused of Murdering 11-Year-Old Was Released Under Coronavirus Jailbreak

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The same flat-earth “science” being used as a pretext to criminalize Americans for not wearing masks has been used to release violent criminals. Now, another one of those released from jail under coronavirus jailbreak policies has been charged with murder in the nation’s capital.

July 4 weekend was a horrible bloodbath for black children across many of our nation’s prominent cities. As I chronicled each of the cases last week, I predicted that most of the suspects would be repeat violent offenders, gun felons, parole violators, or all of the above. Well, that appears to be the case in the horrific D.C. shooting on Independence Day that left 11-year-old Davon McNeal dead.

McNeal was helping his mother at a neighborhood barbecue when a group of drive-by shooters fatally shot him. D.C. police have now arrested two suspects, have issued warrants for two more, and are waiting on a fifth.

During a press conference on Thursday, Police Chief Peter Newsham announced the arrest of 18-year-old Daryle Bond of Southeast D.C. and noted that he has a violent criminal history. Later that day, Christian Wingfield, 22, was arrested. Warrants have been issued for Marcel Gordon, 25, and Carlo General, 19, and they are still at large. Just this past spring, General was arrested on felony possession of a handgun, but rather than being jailed, he was placed into Maryland’s growing supervised probation program.

Marcel Gordon is a 25-year-old from Southeast D.C. who has two prior gun arrests as well as multiple other charges.

Christian Wingfield was also arrested on felony gun charges in the spring but was placed under “active intensive supervision” with a curfew and GPS monitor. But like all supervised parole programs, there is no deterrent. He allegedly cut off the ankle monitor when he participated in the drive-by shooting. Gordon also had two gun-related arrests as well as other charges.

Here’s the kicker. Wingfield was released from D.C. jail on May 22 because of coronavirus. Mind you, the fatality rate in prisons has been lower than among the non-incarcerated population, but that has not stopped these liberal cities from releasing 94,000 criminals from prisons and jails, according to UCLA’s database. California Governor Gavin Newsom has announced the release of another 8,000 criminals. California has already released over 13,400 from county jails and over 3,400 from prison.

This is a perverted sense of “justice” in America’s major cities today. Politicians are now threatening jail time for those who fail to wear masks under the guise of combating coronavirus, yet they release violent gun felons from jail under that same pretext?

Repeat gun criminals are not rare. Every one of the suspects in this heinous July 4 shooting were arrested for gun crimes but were out on the streets to gun down an 11-year-old child.

Why is it so hard for Republicans to run against jailbreak, weak sentencing, weak policing, and gun felons? They have the perfect narrative against the Left’s gun control and racial jihad against law enforcement. Not a day goes by without an example of gun felons in major gun control cities being released into communities and killing more black victims, including children.

Over this past weekend, there were 15 shootings within 15 hours in black neighborhoods in New York City. On Sunday night, another family was enjoying a cookout in Brooklyn when four of them were shot, including a one-year-old baby who suffered a gunshot wound to the stomach! Shouldn’t these horror stories drive millions to the streets demanding tougher sentencing for career criminals?

Rather than using his national platform to pin the blame for inner city violence on weak-on-crime policies, Attorney General Bill Barr parroted the BLM lie about racial bias in policing during a recent interview with ABC news. “I do think it is a widespread phenomenon that African-American males, in particular, are treated with extra suspicion and maybe not given the benefit of the doubt,” said Barr in a wide-ranging interview last week.

Why can’t we the people have a political party that defends our right to self-defense while severely punishing those who commit violence with guns or possess them as felons? Isn’t that the ultimate message of equality that will actually save all lives, but black lives in particular?

Attorney General Barr should take his cues from former Attorney General Ed Meese. In a recent report from the Law Enforcement Legal Defense Fund showing an increase in crime and a drop in prosecutions of violent criminals in cities with pro-jailbreak prosecutors, Meese wrote, “The duty of every prosecutor is to serve the public’s interest, not their own. Ideological crusades have no place in the court of law, and criminal conduct cannot be sanctioned on personal whims.”

It’s time to put race, politics, and ideology aside and go after our nation’s gun felons. The lives of innocent children depend on it. (For more from the author of “Man Accused of Murdering 11-Year-Old Was Released Under Coronavirus Jailbreak” please click HERE)

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