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Pentagon Probing Release of Alleged Secret U.S./NATO Plans to Arm Ukraine

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The Pentagon is investigating how alleged secret U.S. and NATO plans for building up Ukraine’s military ahead of a planned offensive against Russia leaked online.

Versions of documents dating back to March 1 on assessments of Ukraine’s military strength and what Ukraine is expected to need before the offensive have surfaced on Twitter and Telegram, a messaging app with wide reach in Russia. The documents do not include battle plans or a date for when the push against Russia is expected to begin, but they contain a wealth of other information that had not been made public, according to The New York Times. . .

Since the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out last year, intelligence sharing between the United States and Ukraine has increased substantially. The documents that have appeared online, if authentic, represent a serious intelligence breach that could harm that intelligence sharing relationship.

Some of the documents appear altered to show the number of Ukrainian casualties much higher and Russian casualties much lower, according to the Times. The documents also include some information that has never been made public before, such as the Ukrainian military’s burn rate of HIMARS munitions, supplied to Ukraine by the U.S. military. . .

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov did not comment on the authenticity of the documents that have appeared online, but told CNN: “We don’t have the slightest doubt about direct or indirect involvement of the United States and NATO in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.” (Read more from “Pentagon Probing Release of Alleged Secret U.S./NATO Plans to Arm Ukraine” HERE)

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Wall Street Journal Reporter Officially Denies Russia Espionage Charges

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Jailed Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich has been charged with espionage in Russia and has entered his official denial, Russian state news agency Tass reported Friday.

Tass said a law enforcement source informed the news agency that Russia’s Federal Security Service officially charged the American journalist with espionage. Tass did not specify if the action was taken during a court hearing.

In the Russian legal system, the filing of charges means the formal start of a criminal probe.

Tass quoted its source as saying: “The FSB investigation charged Gershkovich with espionage in the interests of his country. He categorically denied all accusations and stated that he was engaged in journalistic activities in Russia.” (Read more from “Wall Street Journal Reporter Officially Denies Russia Espionage Charges” HERE)

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Russia Threatens to Blow up Ukraine Grain Deal Over Western Sanctions

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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Friday threatened to abandon a landmark grain deal with Ukraine if obstacles to Moscow’s exports remained.

Negotiated in July by Turkey and the United Nations, the agreement allows Ukraine — one of the world’s top grain producers — to export grain through a safe corridor in the Black Sea.

“If there is no further progress in removing barriers to the export of Russian fertilisers and grain, we will think about whether this deal is necessary,” Lavrov told a news conference in the Turkish capital Ankara, alongside his counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu. (Read more from “Russia Threatens to Blow up Ukraine Grain Deal Over Western Sanctions” HERE)

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UN: Risk of Nuclear War at Record High. Please Engage in Peace Talks, Russia and Ukraine.

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Well, folks, don’t look now, but the “risk of a nuclear weapon being used is currently higher than at any time since the depths of the cold war,” according to the United Nations High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu.

The war in Ukraine — obviously — is what is driving that risk. Based on reports made during the UN’s security council on Friday, that war isn’t ending any time soon — as if there were any doubt of that. Americans should know it is not going to end any time soon, our commander-in-chief has said that our tax dollars and equipment will be supporting Ukraine in its battle against Russia for “as long as it takes” — whatever that means. The Swamp wants this war to continue — and so it will.

While Biden has been banging the war drums, Putin has been chatting with its neighbors and new BFF Belarus. Now, reports indicate that Russia will be stationing non-strategic nuclear weapons within Belarus territory. According to the UN, those will be in place for aerial use by July. . .

“We are pursuing cooperation with Belarus without violating obligations,” Russian ambassador and Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzia said on Friday. “We are not transferring nuclear weapons. We are talking about the retrofitting of airplanes and training teams in the construction of a storage facility on the territory of Belarus.”

Yet he did make sure to note that Russia would respond to any “provocative measures” as it saw fit, while adding, “A nuclear war cannot be won.” (Read more from “UN: Risk of Nuclear War at Record High. Please Engage in Peace Talks, Russia and Ukraine.” HERE)

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Zelenksy Says May Be Forced to Negotiate Peace Deal if Ukraine Loses Bakhmut

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine may be forced to start peace talks if it loses control of Bakhmut, in a two-day conversation with AP journalists on March 28-29.

In Moscow, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned colleagues that they should get ready for a possible “forever war” according to a report in The Guardian.

The battle for Bakhmut has been going on for seven months with neither side gaining much advantage, leading some analysts to ask why Kyiv is expending so many resources to maintain control of the relatively strategically insignificant town. Zelenskiy told the AP journalists that if Ukraine gives up the town it may be forced to sue for peace.

He predicted that if Russia defeats Ukraine in Bakhmut, Putin would set out to “sell” a victory to the international community.

“If he will feel some blood, smell that we are weak, he will push, push, push,” Zelenskiy said during a two-day train trip with the journalists (video here), adding that the pressure would come not only from the international community but also from within his own country. (Read more from “Zelenksy Says May Be Forced to Negotiate Peace Deal if Ukraine Loses Bakhmut” HERE)

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General Admits U.S. Oversight of Weapons Going to Ukraine Is ‘Not as Rigorous as You Might Think’

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The United States has a limited ability to ensure the billions in weapons sent to Ukraine stays out of the wrong hands, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley told Congress on Tuesday.

The Pentagon has previously acknowledged the difficulty of guaranteeing the final destination of more than $30 billion in weapons aid delivered so far to Ukraine. An ability to maintain only a small contingent of non-combat personnel dedicated to oversight at the embassy in Kyiv means it relies mostly on Ukrainian soldiers to inspect aid at destinations closer to the front lines and upload photos of weapons to a secure software for confirmation.

“There are some means and mechanisms of doing some accountability. It is not as rigorous as you might think,” Milley told Congress, adding he could elaborate on the reporting mechanism in a classified setting.

Milley pointed to the effectiveness of Ukraine’s forces as a proxy for the integrity of U.S. assistance in Ukraine.

“You can see the accountability on the battlefield,” he said. (Read more from “General Admits U.S. Oversight of Weapons Going to Ukraine Is ‘Not as Rigorous as You Might Think’” HERE)

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China Creates a New World Order as Biden Ignores the Threats

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. . .Once the repository of American and European hopes, Beijing has shown no interest in restraining Russia and restoring the pre-war European order.

Instead, it has leveraged the Ukraine war to begin building an alternative, Sino-centric system.

Its efforts are bearing fruit: As Chinese President Xi Jinping told Russian President Vladimir Putin at the end of their three-day summit in Moscow last week, “Right now we’re seeing a change we haven’t seen for 100 years, and we’re driving this change together.”

The change Xi references is most evident in the Middle East, where Russia’s war on Ukraine is driving America’s Gulf ally Saudi Arabia into the embrace of China. . .

Iran has seized on the Ukraine war to qualitatively upgrade its military. In return for supplying Russia with drones, munitions and — possibly — ballistic missiles, Iran will receive fourth-generation fighter jets and other advanced systems from Russia, potentially including sophisticated air defenses that could safeguard its nuclear sites. (Read more from “China Creates a New World Order as Biden Ignores the Threats” HERE)

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Where Is the Russian Banking Crisis?

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Sanctions were supposed to kill the Russian financial sector. It did, and it didn’t.

It did insofar as any globally ambitious Russian money center bank or asset manager had their expansion plans curtailed by sanctions. Doing business as a Westerner with a Moscow or St. Petersburgh-based bank is next to impossible now. Sanctions hurt.

“Because of the sanction environment, global banks, vendors, partners are extremely careful in dealing with Russia-based or connected counterparts, and always ask a lot of questions,” says Neri Tollardo, a former executive at Tinkoff Bank in Moscow, now living and working in Mexico as of mid-2022. “Banks do not process or accept payments in and out of Russia, and often times global counterparts have self-imposed compliance standards that are much stricter than the law,” he says.

So in this way, sanctions have hurt Russia’s financial institutions.

But a Russian banking crisis, one that looks like we have seen in the U.S. recently with Silicon Valley Bank and in Switzerland with Credit Suisse, has not occurred. There were never any runs on Russian banks. The ruble strengthened. And while most banks are protected by the state – led by Sberbank and VTB – the Russian Central Bank has spent much of the last decade working to clean up the financial system. This house cleaning, led by Central Bank president Elvira Nabiullina, which led to the closure of hundreds of private banks, is arguably why sanctions didn’t ruin Russian finance. Elvira had already taken the weak links out of the system. And there were many. For this reason, Russian banks have survived the West’s sanctions regime and stock market delistings better than anyone would have imagined. For a cynical Russian, watching Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse burn down while their bankers are gainfully employed is like smirking before the camera lens in front of a burning building. (Read more from “Where Is the Russian Banking Crisis?” HERE)

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Putin’s Arrest Abroad Would Amount to ‘Declaration of War,’ Russian Official Says

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If Russian President Vladimir Putin were to be arrested overseas following the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for him, it would amount to a “declaration of war,” a top Russian official warned.

The ICC announced the arrest warrant for Putin last Friday, accusing him of being responsible for the thousands of children that have been forcibly deported to Russia, where they’ve undergone political reeducation training. The Kremlin quickly denounced the warrant and dismissed it.

“Just imagine — clearly that such a situation is never going to happen, but still — let’s imagine that it has happened. The incumbent head of a nuclear country arrives in, say, Germany and is arrested. What does it mean? A declaration of war against Russia. In such a case, all our weapons will target the Bundestag, the [German] chancellor’s office, and so on,” Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev, who held the title of Russian presidency under Putin from 2008 to 2012, said Thursday, according to state news agency TASS.

German Federal Minister of Justice Marco Buschmann said Berlin would have to implement the ICC decision and arrest the Russian president if he arrived in Germany. In response, Medvedev said, “Does he even realize that it would be a casus belli, a declaration of war?”

If Putin were arrested abroad, it would worsen Russia’s relationship with Western countries, he said. (Read more from “Putin’s Arrest Abroad Would Amount to ‘Declaration of War,’ Russian Official Says” HERE)

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Israel Could Strike Iran in Months Unless U.S. Steps In, Former Israeli General Says

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The window to prevent an Israeli strike against Iran’s growing nuclear program is closing quickly, a retired Israeli military general says.

Retired Brigadier General Amir Avivi says that the United States’ retreat from the Middle East, which has allowed China and Russia to move in, is quickly limiting Israel’s options for avoiding conflict. Israel’s timeframe for launching a strike against Iran has shortened to potentially as little as a few months.

An Israeli strike against Iran “is bad for everybody, but this is at the moment what’s going to happen, and maybe happen in three months, in six months, maybe a year,” Avivi told The Washington Free Beacon. Avivi spent three decades in the Israel Defense Forces before becoming the chairman of an Israeli national security think tank, the Israel Defense and Security Forum.

Iran and Russia have deepened ties since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war last year. Iran has reportedly provided Russia with ammo and drones to fuel its war machine while pressuring Moscow to supply Tehran with S-400 missile systems. The anti-air missile system would bolster Iran’s defensive capabilities and make delivering a strike against sensitive or high-priority targets more difficult for Israel. (Read more from “Israel Could Strike Iran in Months Unless U.S. Steps In, Former Israeli General Says” HERE)

Photo credit: Flickr

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