Posts

Democratic Bonanza: Immigration Reform to Change Voting Landscape for Generations

/0 Comments/in , /by

Photo Credit: AP

The immigration proposal pending in Congress would transform the nation’s political landscape for a generation or more — pumping as many as 11 million new Hispanic voters into the electorate a decade from now in ways that, if current trends hold, would produce an electoral bonanza for Democrats and cripple Republican prospects in many states they now win easily.

Beneath the philosophical debates about amnesty and border security, there are brass-tacks partisan calculations driving the thinking of lawmakers in both parties over comprehensive immigration reform, which in its current form offers a pathway to citizenship — and full voting rights — for a group of undocumented residents that roughly equals the population of Ohio, the nation’s seventh-largest state.

If these people had been on the voting rolls in 2012 and voted along the same lines as other Hispanic voters did last fall, President Barack Obama’s relatively narrow victory last fall would have been considerably wider, a POLITICO analysis showed.

Key swing states that Obama fought tooth and nail to win — like Florida, Colorado and Nevada — would have been comfortably in his column. And the president would have come very close to winning Arizona.

Republican Mitt Romney, by contrast, would have lost the national popular vote by 7 percentage points, 53 percent to 46 percent, instead of the 4-point margin he lost by in 2012, and would have struggled even to stay competitive in GOP strongholds like Texas, which he won with 57 percent of the vote.

Read more from this story HERE.

Scalia: The Voting Rights Act Is A ‘Racial Entitlement’

/2 Comments/in , /by

Photo Credit: GettyConservative Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism about the constitutionality of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 during oral arguments today, signaling that a key provision of the landmark civil rights legislation might be struck down.

Justice Antonin Scalia sparked controversy when he referred to Section 5 of the law as “the perpetuation of a racial entitlement,” sparking immediate backlash from the left.

Section 5 requires states with a “history of racial discrimination” to have any changes to their voting laws approved by the Justice Department’s civil rights division or Washington, D.C.’s federal court.

Scalia explained that he was not convinced the law was legitimate simply because Congress had voted to reauthorize it five times, most recently in 2006 by a 99-0 Senate vote and similarly overwhelming House vote. He said that the “normal political process” couldn’t be applied to this situation and questioned Congress’ political motives for reauthorization.

Read more from this story HERE.

Soldier Pays $90 to Vote Absentee

/4 Comments/in , /by

What’s the value of being able to vote? For one junior Army officer, it was worth almost $100.

After 2nd Lt. Benjamin Nygaard had a few conversations with military colleagues about the challenges of getting an overseas absentee ballot in on time, he decided he wasn’t taking any chances.

A tank platoon leader stationed near South Korea’s demilitarized zone at Camp Casey, Nygaard has always been a politically active citizen, said his father, Dan Nygaard of Fort Collins, Colo.

“Via discussions with Army (non-commissioned officers), my son…developed so little faith in the military balloting system that he asked us to FedEx his mail-in ballot to him,” Nygaard said.

While officials with Colorado’s Secretary of State told Human Events they haven’t had complaints about a new state system that delivers military absentee ballots electronically and allows troops to mail them back, the return journey isn’t foolproof.

Read more from this story HERE.

The Hispanic Vote in 2010

/1 Comment/in /by

Before the 2010 election some commentators argued that the failure to address immigration would increase Hispanic turnout, while others argued it would cause them to stay home. New Census Bureau voting data show that neither of these predictions was correct. Hispanic turnout conformed to the pattern of recent mid-term elections.

Among the findings:

Prior to the 2010 election, the Center for Immigration Studies projected that Hispanics would comprise 6.8 percent of the national electorate in congressional elections. The new data from the Census Bureau almost exactly match this projection, with Hispanics comprising 6.9 percent of the vote.

Our projection was correct because it was based on the assumption that Hispanic turnout would follow past patterns for mid-term elections and that Hispanics would neither be especially animated nor especially disengaged in 2010.

The 31.2 percent of Hispanic citizens who voted in 2010 matches the 31.2 percent who voted in the 2002 mid-term election, and is very similar to the 32.3 percent who voted in 2006. All of these values fall within the margin of error of ± 1.7 percentage points and indicate that 2010 was not unusual.

In addition to the 6.9 percent of voters who identified as Hispanic in the 2010 election, 77.5 percent of voters identified as non-Hispanic white, 11.5 percent as non-Hispanic black, and 2.4 percent identified as non-Hispanic Asian.

Read More at CIS Steven A. Camarota, Ashley Monique Webster,Center for Immigration Studies