As Alaska Goes, So Goes America?

Mid-term elections are problematic for the party holding the Presidency; mid-term elections following scandals or highly divisive policy choices are particularly problematic.

The Republican Party experienced disaster in 1974 following Watergate, the granddaddy of all modern political scandals, losing 49 seats in the House and four in the Senate, giving Democrats a filibuster-proof majority in that body. When Reagan won his second term in 1984 (carrying 49 out of 50 states), the GOP held a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate only to give up 8 seats in 1986 and control to the Democrats following the Iran-Contra Affair.

Bill Clinton sold himself as a New Democrat in 1992, but after seeking to implement Hillarycare and raising taxes, voters sent his party to the cleaners in 1994, with the Republicans gaining back control of the House (in a 54 seat swing) and the Senate (9 seat change) for the first time since the 1950s.

The mid-term elections of 2010 followed a strikingly similar path. After the passage of the Stimulus Bill and Obamacare, the Democrats experienced the greatest reversal of party fortunes in House history. The GOP picked up 63 seats and leadership of the House, as well as 6 seats in the Senate, though Democrats retained control of that body.

Both scandal and unpopular policy choices are once again in the mix as 2014 begins to take shape, and the outcomes in a few key states may change the entire balance of power in Washington.

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