The Eventual Republican Nominee Will Be One of These Six Candidates

It seems as if there are 3,742 people campaigning to be the Republican Party’s nominee for president in 2016. But when you look at history, environment, and the candidates’ various strengths and weaknesses, only six have a real shot at being the party’s eventual standard-bearer.

Although the first official votes in the process won’t be cast in my home state of Iowa for another 162 days, you can already see the fault lines forming in the race that will dictate its outcome. While it’s true Iowa doesn’t always pick the nominee, it has selected one of the major party’s nominee 75 percent of the time (including the last four general election winners). Plus, the GOP has never nominated somebody who didn’t finish in the top three in Iowa.

So even if we’re not quite as sure about their identities, I believe it’s possible to predict which three types of candidates will get their tickets punched out of Iowa to continue forward to New Hampshire and beyond.

Come February 1st, Iowa’s top three will represent these factions:

The Conservative Candidate

Right now the conservative base is mostly splintered. But the next phase of the process this fall will be conservatives determining which candidate they should coalesce behind for the final push of the campaign. While several decent conservatives are running this cycle, only three have any shot at being the conservative champion by the time Christmas rolls around — Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, and Scott Walker. They are the only three conservatives who can put an organization on the ground here capable of winning Iowa.

Endorsements will play a big role in my home state because conservatives are going to have a difficult time choosing between these three. Momentum has been gathering around Walker’s record, Cruz’s courage of conviction, and Huckabee’s likeability and winsomeness. The two most important endorsements in the Iowa Caucuses are pro-family activist Bob Vander Plaats and Congressman Steve King. If a candidate were to land both of their endorsements, there is little doubt they would win Iowa because conservatives – especially evangelicals – dominate Iowa Caucus turnout.

The Establishment Candidate

Jeb Bush is toast in Iowa. He’s already worked the state much harder than Mitt Romney’s stealth campaign did in 2012, and it’s gaining him no traction. Iowans just aren’t buying what he’s selling, and historically if you’re not competitive in Iowa you’re just not competitive—period. Instead of being the Romney of 2016, Bush is more like the Rudy Giuliani of this cycle. He’s mostly a media-driven “frontrunner” that collapses like a house of cards once the campaigning gets underway.

Republican-in-Name-Only Governor Terry Branstad and the GOP establishment in Iowa actually favor Chris Christie. There is a personal relationship there and they’ve even shared staff. Yet Christie is damaged goods as a candidate, so I think the GOP establishment will eventually go with Marco Rubio instead. He also has a personal rapport with Branstad, and Team Rubio was instrumental in helping Joni Ernst get elected to the U.S. Senate last year. It was Team Rubio who conjured the famous “squeal” ad that went viral and made Ernst a household name.

Overall, Rubio is probably more conservative than the establishment would like, but he’s also moved their way on the two issues the GOP establishment wants most to be to the left of the Democrats on—immigration and marriage. So he has shown he will play ball when push comes to shove.

The Outsider Candidate

Due to the GOP establishment’s failure to truly offer the American people a second party alternative to the Democrats, there is a bloc of traditional GOP voters this primary cycle looking for a third party option to their own party.

Just look at Donald Trump. He’s still leading the phony polls (you shouldn’t put much stock in) despite the fact he’s not truly pro-life, he’s not in favor of defunding Planned Parenthood, he’s taken no position on religious freedom, and now he’s to the left of Chuck Schumer on Obama’s Iran deal. But people see his brashness and his wealth as symbols that he can’t be bought off by the corporatists on K-Street and the amnesty-pimps at the Chamber of Commerce.

Then there’s Ben Carson, who has name I.D., likability, money, and organization. He’s sort of Trump’s alter ego. If Trump is using bombast and “Flight of the Valkyries” to sell his outsider candidacy, Carson is going with dignity and smooth jazz.

Nonetheless, while they’re the top two in the phony polls right now, one of the hardest things to do in politics is to mobilize new voters to take part in a partisan process. That’s especially so in the Iowa Caucuses, which are unlike a primary in that they can take a commitment of a couple of hours on election day. Furthermore, celebrity candidates often learn in the end there’s a difference between “admirers” and “supporters.” One of these two will learn that lesson in Iowa and be sent home, while the other one will be encouraged to press on.

Conclusion

Sunday’s latest Fox News poll is a bellwether in the race. If you add up the support for the least conventional candidates (Trump, Carson, Cruz, and Carly Fiorina), it’s more than double what all the other candidates have combined. Furthermore, all the conventional candidates have lost support since the pre-debate survey.

It’s also clear none of the attacks on Trump have hurt him but instead have actually hurt his attackers. GOP primary voters are sending the following message to his campaign rivals: We don’t want you to attack Trump while he’s attacking the GOP Establishment/Liberal Media cabal – we want you to outdo him. (Re-posted with permission, “The Eventual Republican Nominee Will Be One of These Six Candidates”, originally appeared HERE)

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