Former Vice President Joe Biden’s once-solid double-digit lead over the rest of the field of 2020 Democratic Party presidential nominees shrunk, in recent weeks, before slightly expanding again over the past two weeks. Biden currently stands 6.6% above second-place Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in the average of recent national polling. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) round out the top five in most recent national polling. Increasingly, the field appears to be shaping up as a three-horse race among Biden, Warren, and Sanders. But Sanders is poised to be the odd man out of the troika, due to a combination of health problems and the fact his socialist political platform is no longer unique.
Biden’s once-formidable lead has dramatically narrowed since its high watermark in May, as the senior statesman frequently commits gaffes on the campaign trail and oftentimes comes across as simply being too old to assume the mantle of commander-in-chief. It remains to be seen just how much of Biden’s continued fall can also be attributed to fallout from the recent Ukraine phone call national scandal and impeachment imbroglio. Warren has been surging for awhile now, although her national polling has taken a bit of a drop over the past couple of weeks. Warren and Sanders seem to be competing for a very similar voting demographic, and it is interesting to ponder the possibility of how one candidate would likely be substantially elevated were the other to drop out and endorse the other. Some polling data suggests that Sanders hypothetically dropping out would help Warren more than it would help Biden. But Sanders may be in this for the long haul, after all.
Electoral prediction market website PredictIt also pegs Warren as the favorite to win the presidential nomination over Biden — with Sanders, Buttigieg, and political novice Andrew Yang following next. But while PredictIt showed Warren with an overwhelming lead recently, her lead has over Biden has narrowed, of late. It is likely that many of these bettors are skittish about Biden’s age and perceived substantive centrism — with the latter especially worrisome among a Democratic Party base that is increasingly brazen and unabashed in its promotion of ardent, full-spectrum leftism.
The RealClearPolitics polling average for 10/11/19 – 10/22/19 shows Biden with an average national polling lead of 6.6%. (Read more from “New Poll: Who Will Win the Democratic Primary?” HERE)