With the election year now underway, President Trump is no doubt beatable — and yet, it’s starting to feel more and more like he’ll get reelected.
The obstacles to Trump winning in 2020 should not be ignored. To start, in 2016, he only beat the highly unpopular Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College by winning three key swing states by less than 1%. In 2018, all three of them, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan turned against Republicans. Trump also has historically low approval ratings and has been consistently trailing Democratic front-runner Joe Biden in general election matchups.
But at the same time, there are several factors that increasingly look to be playing in Trump’s favor.
One, the economy. Predictions about the United States being on the brink of a recession have not borne out yet. Instead, unemployment has remained at a 50-year low of 3.5%. Since Trump took office, the unemployment rate has averaged 3.9% — lower than any president at a comparable point in office since data started being kept in 1948. Recent data also undermines the Democratic argument that the gains have been limited to the very top. It makes it harder to run a “change” campaign in the face of such strong economic performance.
Two, foreign policy. Despite Democratic warnings, Trump’s decision to kill Iranian terrorist leader Qassem Soleimani did not trigger a war with Iran. Instead, when Iran retaliated without causing U.S. casualties, Trump prudently declared victory and avoided further escalation. To this point in his presidency, Trump has militarily intervened less than Barack Obama did. Under Trump’s leadership, the U.S. also managed to roll back the Islamic State and kill their leader, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi. (Read more from “It’s Looking More Like Trump Will Be Reelected in 2020” HERE)