Economists Say Black Swan Event Has Already Initiated Global Recession; Mnuchin Says Not so Fast (VIDEO)

By CNBC. Goldman Sachs’ economists declared the U.S. economy all but recession-proof at the dawning of 2020, but now it appears a coronavirus-induced recession may have begun just a few months later.

The analysis didn’t account for a “Black Swan,” a term for an improbable and unforeseen event [like the Wuhan Virus]. Instead, it explored the idea of a “Great Moderation,” which is characterized by low volatility, sustainable growth and muted inflation. . .

Economist Alan Blinder told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Wednesday that the U.S. was probably already in a recession as the coronavirus outbreak cancelled conferences, events and travel plans.

. . .In the end, most of the things investors were worried about did not trigger one of the biggest market crashes in Wall Street history or the economic pain that most assuredly will follow. It was an outbreak of a new virus that many thought would be contained to foreign lands — and this was truly a Black Swan.

“We are going into a global recession,” warns chief economic advisor at Allianz Mohamed El-Erian, who correctly called the bear market as it approached. “The economic damage is going to last.” (Read more from “Economists Say Black Swan Event Has Already Initiated Global Recession” HERE)


Despite Forecasting Economic Slowdown, Mnuchin Says Coronavirus Won’t Cause Recession

By ABC News. Despite forecasting an economic slowdown, the president’s top economic adviser said on ABC’s “This Week” that he did not think the novel coronavirus pandemic would cause a recession.

Responding to ABC News Chief White House Correspondent Jonathan Karl on whether there will be a recession, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, “I don’t think so. The real issue is not the economic situation today. … This is a unique situation. We are going to have a slowdown. Later in the year economic activity will pick up as we confront this virus.”

On Sunday, just days after negotiating a bipartisan coronavirus relief bill with House Democrats, he added, “The stock market is gonna go up, it’s gonna go down, we can’t focus on (it) every day.” (Read more from “Despite Forecasting Economic Slowdown, Mnuchin Says Coronavirus Won’t Cause Recession” HERE)

Follow Joe Miller on Twitter HERE and Facebook HERE