The Intelligence Leak Shows Us Nothing New or Surprising about Ukraine
As a retired U.S. Army intelligence officer, I was struck by three things about the recent Discord leaks of classified information. First, that top secret information is far more widely distributed than it was 25 years ago, and second, that the claim that “our government is lying to us” about the situation in Ukraine is wildly overblown. And lastly, that we barely dodged a bullet. . .
As was seen in the most recent leak, the other aspect to classification is how significantly overclassified things have become. (Is “Confidential” still used as a classification? Because I can’t recall the last time I saw any leak of classified documents marked “Confidential.”) It’s as if the classifying authorities — actual people (and I’ve classified a few documents in my time) — believe they derive some authority or prestige by the volume of top-secret documents they produce. It’s almost as if they’re acting like academics looking to pad their publication count. . .
On to the claim that the leaked documents show our government isn’t leveling with the American people about the progress of Russia’s war on Ukraine. . .
The fact is that the U.S. and its Western allies are woefully unprepared for an extended conventional conflict. So too is Russia, as seen with its own significant shortages of artillery ammunition, missiles, and tanks. This problem isn’t new. Maintaining military-industrial base readiness was a costly investment few were willing to make after the end of the Cold War. American production of missiles such as the Javelin anti-armor system are only now being ramped up to a rate where it will take a couple of years to replenish stocks used in Ukraine so far.
It’s also true that some of the military supplies America is sending to Ukraine would be useful in deterring China from threatening Taiwan or its other neighbors, but some analysts see China and Russia as creating an authoritarian alliance of convenience against the West. If this is the case, Ukraine — and maybe Taiwan — are separate parts of what may become the same conflict. (Read more from “The Intelligence Leak Shows Us Nothing New or Surprising about Ukraine” HERE)
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