Historian Who Predicted Almost Every Election Since 1984 Gives Take on Trump-Harris Matchup

The “Keys to the White House” are favoring Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Donald Trump, but a final prediction for the 2024 race has yet to be made.

Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election — and in most cases, it proves to be right.

Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” consists of 13 true-or-false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if “true,” they are given a “key,” and if “false,” their competitor receives the point. If one party’s candidate receives six or more keys, they are the predicted winner.

At the beginning of the cycle, Democrats were handed one automatic “key” for President Biden’s incumbency — but the ballot has since seen a dramatic shift.

The “keys” are as follows:
party mandate
contest
incumbency
third party
short-term economy
long-term economy
policy change
social unrest
scandal
foreign/military failure
foreign/military success
incumbent charisma
challenger charisma

(Read more from “Historian Who Predicted Almost Every Election Since 1984 Gives Take on Trump-Harris Matchup” HERE)

Photo credit: Gage Skidmore via Flickr