Report: Biden Slightly Favored in 2024 Presidential Election Despite Debate Struggles
In a close analysis of the 2024 presidential election, FiveThirtyEight found that President Joe Biden remains slightly favored to win, despite a widely criticized debate performance. The data, based on simulations of the upcoming election, show Biden winning 50 times out of 100, while former President Donald Trump is predicted to win 49 times out of 100.
Out of 1,000 simulations, Biden came out on top in 505 instances, compared to Trump’s 491. There were four instances where no clear winner emerged, potentially throwing the decision to the House of Representatives.
“It’s 120 days until Election Day, and our model thinks the presidential election could go either way,” FiveThirtyEight stated in a July 8 update. “There is still a small chance of the pure chaos scenario: In 4 simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes.”
NEW: @FiveThirtyEight – Presidential Election Forecast (updated July 12)
Chance of winning
🟦 Biden: 51%
🟥 Trump: 49%Electoral College
🟦 Biden: 271 🏆
🟥 Trump: 267
——
Swing States Projected margin• Michigan – 🔵 Biden +1.8
• Wisconsin – 🔵 Biden +1.1
•… pic.twitter.com/jSRv4CxOhw— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 12, 2024
This analysis follows Biden’s problematic performance at the June 27 debate against Trump. Biden struggled with a hoarse voice, appeared to freeze, and had difficulty completing his closing statement. The debate has led to growing calls from within his party for Biden to consider stepping aside in favor of another candidate.
Notable Democratic donors, including Reed Hastings, co-founder of Netflix, have urged Biden to withdraw. George Clooney, who recently hosted a fundraiser for Biden, also penned an op-ed expressing doubt about Biden’s ability to win the election.
Photo credit: Flickr
