Erick Erickson: Status Quo Ante (+video)

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Like when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object, we now know what happens when a candidate so weak anybody can beat him meets a candidate so weak he cannot beat anybody. Americans vote for the status quo. $6 billion later, Americans voted for the status quo. Karl Rove, call your donors.

Republicans will keep the House. Democrats will keep the Senate. Obama will keep the White House.

It is what it is. The next two years are going to be some of the most fun and exciting years within the modern American conservative movement.

We know in American politics that nothing is permanent. The question we are going to have to assess is whether Barack Obama’s coalition is a Democratic coalition or a Barack Obama coalition. My personal opinion is that Barack Obama built a winning coalition for Barack Obama and it may not translate to a long term Democratic coalition. Just ask Minority Leader Pelosi and that now endangered creature known as the Democratic Governor.

As the jockeying for 2016 begins soon (and it will begin very soon) we will find out. Read more from this story HERE.

Here’s a prescient video with Erick Erickson, Joe Miller, and Rich Galen from earlier this year. If you don’t have time for the full video, skip forward to 5:45.

Dollar Falls As News of Obama’s Win Sinks In

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The dollar fell against the yen on speculation Barack Obama’s re-election as president will boost chances the U.S. will maintain monetary stimulus policies that tend to weaken the greenback.

The euro erased gains as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the Europe’s crisis is affecting Germany. The U.S. currency was mixed versus its major peers as Obama defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney, who disagreed with current Federal Reserve policy. Obama now faces the so-called fiscal cliff, $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts set to be implemented in 2013.

“The size of the victory was perhaps at the upper end of what people were expecting, so that may mean that his negotiations with the Republicans to stop us going over the fiscal cliff might be a bit easier,” said Paul Robson, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “The idea of unchanged Fed policy is slightly supportive for equities, slightly weaker dollar, and I think that’s how people are playing it today.”

The U.S. currency depreciated 0.3 percent to 80.08 yen at 7:44 a.m. in New York after declining to 79.81 yen, the weakest level since Nov. 1. The dollar rose 0.4 percent to $1.2764 per euro after falling 0.1 percent yesterday. The euro slipped 0.8 percent to 102.20 yen…

“Monetary policy will remain loose under Obama so the dollar will be sold,” said Michiyoshi Kato, senior vice president of foreign-currency sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. “Dollar selling may not last that long as the U.S. faces the fiscal cliff.”

Read more from this story HERE.

Report: China Eyeing Strategic Atlantic Island Base to Threaten American Mainland

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On June 27, a plane carrying Wen Jiabao made a “technical” stop on the island of Terceira, in the Azores. Following an official greeting by Alamo Meneses, the regional secretary of environment of the sea, the Chinese premier spent four hours touring the remote Portuguese outpost in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

Wen’s Terceira walkabout, which followed a four-nation visit to South America, largely escaped notice at the time, but alarm bells should have immediately gone off in Washington and in European capitals. For one thing, Wen’s last official stop on the trip was Santiago, the capital of Chile. Flights from Chile to China normally cross the Pacific, not the Atlantic, so there was no reason for his plane to be near the Azores. Moreover, those who visit the Azores generally favor other islands in the out-of-the-way chain.

Terceira, however, has one big attraction for Beijing: Air Base No. 4. Better known as Lajes Field, the facility where Premier Wen’s 747 landed in June is jointly operated by the U.S. Air Force and its Portuguese counterpart. If China controlled the base, the Atlantic would no longer be secure. From the 10,865-foot runway on the northeast edge of the island, Chinese planes could patrol the northern and central portions of the Atlantic and thereby cut air and sea traffic between the U.S. and Europe. Beijing would also be able to deny access to the nearby Mediterranean Sea.

And China could target the American homeland. Lajes is less than 2,300 miles from New York, shorter than the distance between Pearl Harbor and Los Angeles.

Lajes is certainly the reason Wen went out of his way to win friends in Terceira. For years his country has been trying to make inroads into the Azores and waiting for opportunities to pounce. There is nothing the Chinese can do if the U.S. stays, but Pentagon budget cutters, according to some observers, are planning to make Lajes a “ghost base.”

Read more from this story HERE.

Video: Gingrich-Obamacare Will Resemble Obama’s Sandy Response

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The Obama administration’s response to Hurricane Sandy is an example of how President Obama’s healthcare law would work, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) said in a Tuesday morning interview with MSNBC.

“I think as people watch the continuing devastation, it reminds [them] that Homeland Security as a department has once again failed, as it failed in Katrina,” Gingrich said. “And remember: This is the government that Obama wanted to have deliver your healthcare. So as you watch the long lines, you watch the failures, you watch the excuses, do you really want that to be the source of your healthcare?”

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) has lavished praise on the administration’s Sandy response, and on Obama specifically. Read more from this story HERE.

“Extraordinary Measures” Necessary Before End of 2012 as Debt Limit is Reached Again

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The U.S. Treasury quietly warned at the end of a statement issued last Wednesday that it expects the federal government to hit its legal debt limit before the end of this year–which means before the new Congress is seated–and that “extraordinary measures” will be needed before then to keep the government fully funded into the early part of 2013.

On Aug. 2, 2011, President Obama signed a deal he had negotiated with congressional leaders to increase the debt limit of the federal government by $2.4 trillion. But, now, after only 15 months, almost all of that additional borrowing authority has been exhausted.

Although Treasury revealed in its statement on Wednesday that it was likely to hit the debt limit by the end of the year, Treasury Secretary Geithner failed to respond to a letter that Senate Finance Ranking Member Orrin Hatch and Senate Budget Ranking Member Jeff Sessions sent to him on Oct. 15 demanding that he notify them by Nov. 1 what he believes to be the exact date Treasury will hit the debt limit and the date he expects to begin using “extraordinary measures” to avoid it.

“Treasury continues to expect the debt limit to be reached near the end of 2012,” says the tenth paragraph of the “Quarterly Refunding Statement” put out by Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Markets Matthew Rutherford.

“However, Treasury has the authority to take certain extraordinary measures to give Congress more time to act to ensure we are able to meet the legal obligations of the United States of America,” said the statement. “We continue to expect that these extraordinary measures would provide sufficient ‘headroom’ under the debt limit to allow the government to continue to meet its obligations until early in 2013.”

Read more from this story HERE.

Yesterday’s Vote: Both Sides Lost

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Though Obama failed to win a majority in the popular vote–and may even have lost the popular vote outright–he won enough votes in the Electoral College to claim victory. The same constitutional peculiarity that brought George W. Bush into office in 2000 may have returned Obama to the White House.

The voters also re-affirmed the results of the historic Tea Party election of 2010, returning Republicans to power in the House of Representatives. And yet the voters also retained Democrats in control of the Senate, preserving the results of the anti-war wave election of 2006.

The U.S. Congress is now divided between two parties whose members were elected on platforms of protest, each determined to stop the other from pursuing its policies.

In the days that follow, great efforts will be spent on explaining the results as consequences of many factors, big and small.

Perhaps Obama would have lost if not for Hurricane Sandy. Perhaps Romney would have won if he had fought harder over Benghazi or pushed back against personal attacks. Perhaps the GOP is out of touch with the country’s changing mores and demographics. Perhaps Democrats have not yet reckoned with fiscal reality.

Read more from this story HERE.

Gay Marriage Approved by Voters, First Time in US History

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Americans for the first time approved gay marriage at the ballot box on Tuesday, pointing to changing attitudes on the divisive issue.

In Maine and Maryland, voters approved ballot initiatives to begin allowing same-sex unions. Those wins mark a first for a cause that had previously been rejected by voters in more than 30 states, including as recently as 2009 in Maine.

And in Minnesota, where gay marriage is already not allowed, voters declined to back an initiative that would enshrine in the state’s constitution a definition of marriage permitting only a union between a man and woman.

In Washington state, where voters also weighed an initiative to legalize gay marriage, the vote count was expected to stretch on for days. With half of the vote counted as of 3 a.m. Eastern time, nearly 52% supported the idea.

In Maine, campaigners for same-sex marriage said the win marked a turning point for their cause. “We made history here tonight and showed that voters can change their minds,” said Matt McTighe, the campaign director of Mainers United for Marriage. “That will serve as something of a signal to other states who have lost marriage fights before at ballot boxes. You can change those minds.”

Read more from this story HERE.

Huckabee and O’Reilly: “GOP Has a Problem Reaching Voters Who Are Not White Men and Want Stuff”

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Republicans have not done a good job reaching minorities as the country has started to shift from a majority white society, which may have cost them the presidential election.

Mike Huckabee and Bill O’Reilly in separate interviews on Fox News said the GOP has a problem reaching voters who are not white men and want stuff – which is why, they said, President Barack Obama won reelection.

“The white establishment is now the minority,” O’Reilly said before the election was called for Obama. “And the voters, many of them, feel that the economic system is stacked against them and they want stuff. You are going to see a tremendous Hispanic vote for President Obama.

Overwhelming black vote for President Obama. And women will probably break President Obama’s way. People feel that they are entitled to things and which candidate, between the two, is going to give them things?”

Read more from this story HERE.

GOP Wins Big in Governor Races, The Most Since the 1920’s

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North Carolina voters elected their first Republican governor in two decades Tuesday, fanning the GOP’s hope of broadening their party’s hold on governor’s mansions across the country.

The victory by former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory came two years after Republicans snatched six governors’ offices in the midterm elections, giving the party 29 governorships to 20 for Democrats and one independent entering Tuesday’s elections, in which 11 gubernatorial races were to be decided.

When all the ballots are counted, Republicans could have as many as 33 governorships — the most since the 1920s and one more than they had in the 1990s.

Mr. McCrory defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton to become the state’s first GOP chief executive since Jim Martin left office in early 1993. Mr. McCrory had lost his gubernatorial bid in 2008 to Democrat Beverly Perdue, who opted not to run for re-election this year.

Democratic governors are leaving office in North Carolina, Montana, New Hampshire and Washington, raising Republican hopes that at least some of those offices can be flipped to the GOP. But New Hampshire’s governor’s mansion remained in Democratic hands Tuesday, as did those in Vermont and Delaware.

Read more from this story HERE.

Ron Paul Republicans Win Closely Contested House Races

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Texas Republican Rep. Ron Paul will retire from Congress next year after serving for 12 terms, but several Republicans influenced by the iconic libertarian-leaning lawmaker will be arriving to take his place.

Thomas Massie won the race to replace retiring Kentucky Republican Rep. Geoff Davis, beating Democrat Bill Adkins by 20 percentage points. Massie, an ally of Paul’s son, Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul, raised nearly 10 times as much money as Adkins, according to the Lexington-Herald Leader.

Michigan Republican Rep. Justin Amash, who was already vying to be the House’s next “Dr. No” in his first term, was re-elected with 58 percent of the vote. Democrat Steve Pestka had hoped to win the votes of independents and moderate Republicans who might regard Amash as too extreme, but failed to gain traction against the 31-year-old congressman.

In a neighboring Michigan district, Ron Paul Republican Kerry Bentivolio was elected to the House seat formerly held by GOP Rep. Thaddeus McCotter. McCotter, who had failed to gather enough valid signatures to appear on the ballot, resigned from the House amid a petition scandal. Bentivolio beat Democrat Syed Taj.

Bentivolio spent four decades in the U.S. Army, but was painted by opponents as an eccentric. He raised reindeer and was an occasional Santa Claus. He was elected to Congress by a 7-point margin.

Read more from this story HERE.