Stagflation Nation: Economy Shrinks

Stagflation. It’s back.

The definition of stagflation is growth below its long-term trend and inflation above trend. . .

The economy did not just grow slowly. It contracted on an annualized basis. Imports, which are subtractions from GDP, expanded massively and and exports fell. Consumer spending was weaker than expected, suggesting that households balked at high prices. Inventories fell, subtracting from GDP.

U.S. trade policy has left our economy extremely vulnerable to trade imbalances. Because our leaders refuse to erect adequate trade safety-valves, any time the U.S. economy recovers faster than the economies of the rest of the world, U.S. income leaks out to foreign manufacturers. That means Americans earned less and produced less. In March and February, the trade in goods deficit rose to a record highs. The trade deficit wound up subtracting 3.2 percentage points from first quarter GDP.

Inventories were weak after a massive build-up at the end of next year. As I’ve discussed a number of times, last year retailers were headfaked into thinking that year-end holiday sales were going to be strong because early holiday shopping had been better than expected. As it turned out, that early shopping was just people getting their shopping done earlier than usual because prices were rising and they feared shortages. So stores wound up with unwanted merchandise that had to be liquidated at the start of the year. (Read more from “Stagflation Nation: Economy Shrinks” HERE)

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CNN Sounds Alarm: ‘Disastrous Day’ for Dems’ 2022 Chances

Democrats’ prospects in the 2022 midterm elections haven’t looked good for some time, but on Thursday the party was delivered an “absolute body blow” with the news that the U.S. economy shrank 1.4% in the first quarter.

That’s the assessment of CNN political analyst Chris Cillizza, who formerly wrote for the Washington Post political blog The Fix.

In an analysis for CNN.com, he wrote that “in a decidedly ill omen, the GDP shrinkage was the worst performance of the measure since the economy went into recession amid the shutting down of the country in the spring of 2020.”

Cillizza noted that Gallup polling data already indicated Americans have extremely low confidence in the economy.

In an April survey, 42% of Americans said economic conditions were “poor” and another 38% said that they were only “fair.” A mere 2% said economic conditions were “excellent,” while just 18% said they were “good.” Further, 76% of Americans said the economy was getting worse, compared to 20% who said it was improving. (Read more from “CNN Sounds Alarm: ‘Disastrous Day’ for Dems’ 2022 Chances” HERE)

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Is NBC News Serious With This Piece About Elon Musk and Twitter?

This NBC News story about Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter is what you’d expect from liberal America. First, they cite only the most far-left figures in the country who are obviously unhappy with Musk. He’s taking away a massive platform that they’ve used to censor and ban conservatives for years. Now, hear this—Twitter’s arbitrary enforcement of their terms of service that only targeted conservatives could be going away if Musk assumes control. Oh, the horror (via NBC News):

Brianna Wu knows firsthand how bad the harassment on Twitter can get. A software engineer and game developer, Wu was targeted with death and rape threats during GamerGate, an online harassment campaign against women in the gaming industry that started in 2014.

Wu, who has more than 100,000 Twitter followers and has used the platform throughout her career, said she consulted with the company’s trust and safety team in an unofficial, unpaid capacity from 2014 to late 2021.

Now, after years of working with the company on reducing hate speech and harassment, she said tech titan Elon Musk could undo the platform’s progress.

“I want Twitter to do well. I just have no faith that under Elon Musk that Twitter would continue to be a place where women, people of color or LGBT people could use it at all,” she said.

(Read more from “Is NBC News Serious With This Piece About Elon Musk and Twitter?” HERE)

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Terrifying Attack on Democratic Institutions: Courts Advance Efforts to Bar Liberty Candidates from Ballots

As the country braces for the midterm elections, the left seems to be rallying behind three D’s: Democracy, Disinformation and Disqualification. The latter effort just received a huge boost from a judge in Georgia who has allowed a challenge to knock Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) off the ballot as an insurrectionist. Nothing says “democracy” like preventing others from voting.

Many of us have criticized Greene for her inflammatory rhetoric and her extreme views. No less dangerous, though, is the means being used by some of Greene’s critics to get rid of her. It is all part of a new movement to defend democracy by denying it. To paraphrase the Vietnam strategy, democracy can only be saved by destroying it through the denial of speech or the right to vote.

Many Democratic politicians and pundits have long pushed for censorship as vital to freedom. However, if such freedom-is-tyranny claims seem Orwellian, they are nothing compared to the push to disqualify dozens of candidates from appearing on ballots.

Judge Amy Totenberg ruled that critics could potentially strip Greene from the ballot due to her public comments before and after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot in Congress. Totenberg ruled that Greene’s critics could bring a challenge under the Constitution’s 14th Amendment, known as the “Disqualification Clause.” This is the same clause cited by some liberal members of Congress and legal experts as a way to bar dozens of Republicans, including former President Trump, from office for allegedly engaging in insurrection against the United States or giving aid and comfort to its enemies.

This argument most recently was used against Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), who also has been opposed by House colleagues on both sides of the aisle. Cawthorn prevailed in a federal court, which dismissed that effort; an appeal of that ruling will be heard May 3 by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 4th Circuit in Richmond, Va. (read more about the attack on democratic institutions HERE)

Governor Signs Into Law Bill Making Ivermectin Available Over the Counter

Just one day after the Food and Drug Administration revived its war against COVID-19 treatment ivermectin, disingenuously calling it a “horse dewormer,” Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee signed a law allowing residents to access the treatment without a prescription.

The FDA’s renewed attacks this week developed when it said the word ivermectin was trending on the newly liberated Twitterverse under Elon Musk.

“Hold your horses, y’all. Ivermectin may be trending, but it still isn’t authorized or approved to treat COVID-19,” Joe Biden’s agenda said.

But on Wednesday, a report from Liberty Counsel confirmed that Lee signed into law a plan making the “award-winning antiviral drug … available for the treatment of COVID-19 without a prescription.”

The state House had adopted the idea 22-6 and the Senate 66-20. (read more about the bill making Ivermectin available over the counter HERE)

This State is Extending its Investigation of Serious, Widespread 2020 Election Anomalies

The investigation in Wisconsin of the 2020 election anomalies, which already has uncovered “widespread” problems, has been extended.

The announcement by Wisconsin House Speaker Robin Vos confirmed that a contract with former state Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman has been renewed.

The move came just after President Trump praised the investigation and urged an extension.

He said, on social media, “The special counsel appointed by the Wisconsin Assembly to investigate the crimes of the 2020 election did an outstanding job. He discovered many pieces of evidence that indicate foul play. Anyone calling themselves a Republican in Wisconsin should support the continued investigation in Wisconsin without interference. After all of the evidence the report brought to light, how could anyone want to stop it?”

. . .”We can’t undo the wrongs of the 2020 election,” [Erick Kaardal, a Thomas More Society special counsel] said. “But it is incumbent upon us to ensure that the corruption that infected Wisconsin’s voting process is rooted out and that the state’s election integrity is preserved. Wisconsin’s voters deserve to know the truth and they need to be assured that the corruption has been eliminated, allowing for fair and honest elections from this point forward.”(read more about the extension of the investigation into widespread 2020 election anomalies HERE)

Parents: Public School Carried Out Secret Gender Transitions on Children

Parents in Massachusetts are suing their kids’ school alleging that teachers and staff encouraged students to change their pronouns and names without parents’ knowledge or consent.

According to the lawsuit, parents claim that Ludlow Public Schools had a “protocol and practice of concealing from parents information related to their children’s gender identity” in middle school.

“[Efforts] to affirm a discordant student gender identity at school violates parents’ fundamental rights under the United States and Massachusetts constitutions and violates children’s reciprocal rights to the care and custody of their parents, familial privacy, and integrity,” the lawsuit reads. It was filed in a Massachusetts federal district court. (read more about the secret gender transitions HERE)

Is America’s Sky-High Housing Market Headed for a Price Correction?

U.S. home prices rose 18.8 percent in 2021, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. During the first three months of 2022, home prices continued their upward trajectory. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the “median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $375,300, up 15.0% from March 2021 ($326,300), as prices rose in each region. This marks 121 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.”

Despite surging home prices, there are growing concerns regarding the overall health of the U.S. real estate market as the pace of sales cooled in recent months amid fast-rising mortgage rates and continuing supply shortfalls. Recent analysis by Redfin suggests that at least some homebuyers have moved to the sidelines. But the same analysis suggested that around 54 percent of homes still sold above their list price.

Given the outsized role that the housing sector plays in the U.S. economy, it is worth considering whether we are approaching an inflection point in the real estate market. Indications that the Federal Reserve has finally realized that it needs to front-load rate hikes to curtail surging inflationary pressures have caused the bond market to reset interest rate expectations. Consequently, the 30-year mortgage rate recently surged past the 5 percent level (average mortgage rates are up 2 percent since December 2021). (read more from “Is the Housing Market Headed for a Price Correction” HERE)

Thousands of Europeans Immigrating to South America Due to Islamic Immigrants and Vax Nazis

Paraguay is seeing a surge in German migrants, fleeing Islamic migrants in their own country and onerous coronavirus restrictions.

“We have a problem in Germany with Muslims,” said one of the exiles, adding: “Islam and vaccinations are big, big problems in this world.”

The German, named as Michael Schwartz and said to have arrived in Paraguay in November 2021, told the BBC that he had avoided taking coronavirus vaccinations — which the German health minister wants to make compulsory, although there is resistance to the policy in the federal legislature — because there are “many questions” around them, suggesting that “many Paraguayans” share his stance.

Stephan Hausen, another German emigrée who arrived in Paraguay with his family in the same month as Schwartz, raised similar concerns, in particular about “continuous” lockdowns which had left him “dumbfounded”.

“That was the final straw,” he said — although like Schwartz he also expressed concerns about Islamic migration to Germany. (Read more about Europeans immigrating to South America HERE)

U.S. and Russia Agree to Historic Prisoner Swap, Marine Exchanged for Drug Trafficking Pilot

Trevor Reed, a U.S. Marine veteran who has been held in Russian custody since 2019, was freed Wednesday in a prisoner swap between the Kremlin and the Biden administration. “Today, we welcome home Trevor Reed and celebrate his return to the family that missed him dearly,” Joe Biden said in the statement announcing that Reed is “free from Russian detention.” The president continued: “I heard in the voices of Trevor’s parents how much they’ve worried about his health and missed his presence. And I was delighted to be able to share with them the good news about Trevor’s freedom.” Reed’s family told Vanity Fair in March that their son had been coughing blood after close contact with an individual with tuberculosis, and had possibly broken a rib. Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the increasingly strained diplomatic ties between Russia and the United States put added pressure on the Biden administration to get Reed, and the two other Americans detained in the country out.

Reed, who was serving a nine-year prison sentence, was convicted with endangering Russian police in 2020 after being accused of drunkenly attacking two Moscow police officers the previous year. Reed has maintained his innocence. In return, U.S. authorities agreed to release Konstantin Yaroshenko, a Russian pilot who was arrested by in 2010 and remained in prison on drug-smuggling charges. (The Biden administration described Yaroshenko on Wednesday as “a Russian smuggler convicted of conspiring to import cocaine.”) Neither Russia nor the U.S. announced the location of the exchange, but a Russian Federal Security Service plane was observed flying to Ankara, Turkey, shortly before the meet was set to take place. . .

Reed’s parents, Joey and Paula Reed, spent years pleading for their son’s release, more recently warning of his deteriorating health. In a phone call with Reed in early March, Joey said his son was discouraged about the prospects of ever being released . . . . (read more about the prisoner swap HERE)