The race for the Democratic presidential nomination is tightening, with Bernie Sanders closing in on Hillary Clinton in two important contests.
Sanders is leading Clinton in Missouri and has cut into the Democratic front-runner’s lead in Ohio and Illinois, according to a new survey the left-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP).
All three states now look like toss-ups, with the PPP poll showing Sanders trailing Clinton by just 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent, in Ohio.
The change is particularly notable because several polls in Ohio at the beginning of the month showed Clinton with a 20- to 30-point lead over the Vermont senator.
The race has drawn much closer since Sanders’s surprise win in Michigan; he also trailed by double-digits in that state weeks before its primary. (Read more from “Sanders Gains on Clinton Ahead of Huge Tuesday Contests” HERE)
00Joe Millerhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngJoe Miller2016-03-14 21:31:332016-04-11 10:51:33Sanders Gains on Clinton Ahead of Huge Tuesday Contests
2016 is turning out to be the strangest election season that we have seen in decades, and it may soon get far stranger. At this point, most people assume that Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee, and without a doubt he has had a tremendous amount of success. But because most of the states so far have apportioned delegates proportionally, Trump only has 44.8 percent of the delegates that have been awarded up to this point. So Trump is going to have to do significantly better through the rest of the process in order to get to the magic number of 1,237 delegates, especially since not all of the delegates are awarded through the primaries and caucuses. As Real Clear Politics has detailed, every state “is awarded so-called ‘RNC delegates,’ who are party officials with automatic credentials to the convention“.
Right now, more than 40 percent of all the delegates to the convention have already been awarded, and Trump is sitting at just 458. To get to 1,237, he is going to have to do really well in the upcoming winner-take-all states. That is why there is so much focus on Florida and Ohio on March 15th. If Trump wins both of them, he will have a path to 1,237 delegates. If he doesn’t, that is where things get tricky.
If Donald Trump shows up at the convention with fewer than 1,237 delegates, he will be vulnerable, and it is likely that the Republican establishment will try to steal the nomination away from him.
In order for that to happen, the rules of the convention will need to be changed. Because right now the only candidates that are likely to be nominated under the current rules are Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.
Morton Blackwell, a member of the Republican National Committee’s Standing Committee on Rules, authored a great article entitled “The Coming Trainwreck” in which he described what a mess the Republican convention rules are as of this moment. The following is a brief excerpt in which he describes what would happen if no candidate received 1,237 votes on the first ballot…
First, a sizeable number of delegate votes cast will not be counted in the final tally of the first ballot because they will be cast for candidates who did not demonstrate, before the first ballot, that they had majorities in at least eight state delegations.
Second, the national rules provide that no one will get the presidential nomination on any ballot until someone receives at least 1,237 tallied delegate votes.
Third (and this will come as a surprise to most people), although delegate votes from states that hold primaries will be allocated by those state primaries to specific candidates on the first ballot, that does not mean that on subsequent ballots all delegates are free to vote for whomever they choose and to have those votes counted in a final tally on any ballot.
In fact, the state of Florida binds their delegates for the first three ballots. Rules vary from state to state, and I am sure that we are going to hear a lot more about this if nobody has 1,237 delegates before the convention.
As the rules stand right now, no other candidates other than Trump or Cruz will even be able to be nominated at the convention because of a rule that the Mitt Romney campaign pushed for in 2012. That rule requires that a candidate must have won at least eight states in order to be nominated. Here is more from Morton Blackwell…
In fact, as it now stands, the same Romney-created rule, Rule 40(b), that prevents votes from being tallied for candidates who could not prove majority support from at least eight state delegations also provides that candidates must prove that they meet the eight-state threshold “not less than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.” In other words, when the first ballot begins, no additional candidates can qualify to receive votes that will be counted.
Only candidates who meet the eight-state threshold required to receive votes that count on the first ballot can receive votes that count on subsequent ballots.
Of course these rules can still be changed.
In fact, they can be changed just shortly before the convention.
The Rules Committee is immensely powerful. According to Time Magazine, they could very easily create a rule that says that “only candidates with blue hair” can be nominated, and nobody would be able to do anything about it.
So could they change the rules specifically to try to steal the nomination from Trump?
Of course they could. In fact, new rules are already being proposed. The following comes from the Daily Caller…
A Republican National Committee member will propose an amendment to the GOP convention rules this summer that will allow any Republican candidate with at least one delegate to be “deemed” nominated on the first ballot.
“So, using Iowa as an example, every candidate receiving at least four percent of the vote in the Iowa caucuses will earn one delegate, and thus be nominated for consideration at the Republican National Convention,” North Dakota National Committeeman Curly Haugland, a member of the RNC Rules Committee, told The Daily Caller Tuesday.
It is interesting to note that if this new rule is implemented, the names that would be nominated on the first ballot would include Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Chris Christie, Ben Carson, Rand Paul and Jeb Bush.
And it is also interesting to note that Karl Rove is now running around the country trying to rally establishment Republicans around an attempt to keep Donald Trump from getting to the magic number of 1,237. The following comes from WND…
At a meeting of Republican governors and donors in Washington, D.C., last month, Rove – dubbed the “architect” of George W. Bush’s election success – launched a movement to prevent Donald Trump from gaining the 1,237 delegates he needs in the primaries to win the GOP nomination on the first ballot at the party’s convention in Cleveland in July.
Last weekend, Rove stepped up his efforts to block Trump, arguing his case at the American Enterprise Institute’s World Forum in Sea Island, Georgia, a closed-to-the-press meeting of billionaire GOP donors, tech company CEOs and Republican establishment leaders.
The Republican establishment has a very deep playbook full of dirty tricks. Just look at what they have done to the Ohio ballot. I am a former lawyer, and I can’t even figure it out.
As I have said all along, the elite are going to move heaven and earth to keep Donald Trump out of the White House, and if that requires stealing the nomination from him at the convention, then that is exactly what they are going to do.
Of course if that happens there will be a massive uproar. Perhaps that is why the Cleveland police are stocking up on riot gear in anticipation of what is going to happen at the Republican convention.
Let us hope that the nomination is clinched ahead of time. Because a “brokered convention” would be a giant mess, and it would almost certainly hand the election to Hillary Clinton, and that is the worst possible outcome of all. (For more from the author of “Unless Someone Gets to 1,237 Delegates, the Republican Convention Is Going to Be a Giant Mess” please click HERE)
00Joe Millerhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngJoe Miller2016-03-14 21:12:352016-04-11 10:51:34Unless Someone Gets to 1,237 Delegates, the Republican Convention Is Going to Be a Giant Mess
By Hallie Jackson. Mitt Romney will campaign with John Kasich Monday at two stops in Ohio, NBC News has learned from a source familiar with the plans.
Romney is not expected to endorse the Ohio governor during the campaign swing, the source said, but it will be the first time Romney has campaigned on behalf of a Republican candidate this cycle.
It’s a significant move for the former Republican nominee, who previously recorded campaign telephone “robocalls” for Kasich as well as Marco Rubio.
Earlier this month, at a speech in Utah, Romney lambasted frontrunner Donald Trump as a “fraud” and warned of the dangers to the Republican Party if Trump were the nominee. (Read more from “Mitt Romney Is Hitting the Campaign Trail With This GOP Candidate” HERE)
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Father of Son Murdered by Illegal: Pro-Amnesty John Kasich, Marco Rubio Should Be Tried for ‘Treason’
By Julia Hahn. “How much of this do we have to take?” Dan Golvach asked about the Republican Party’s longstanding refusal to enforce the nation’s immigration laws.
Golvach—whose 25-year-old son Spencer was stopped at a traffic light when an illegal alien pulled up next to him and shot him in the head—explains that the reason he now backs Donald Trump for President is because of holidays spent at the cemetery, and the image of his “child’s deflated head in a casket” burned into his mind.
“Losing a child,” Golvach explains, is something one never really gets “acclimated to. I can tell you that it’s a very dark place of despair.”
And your life is ruined. [Golvach pauses] It’s just ruined. Trust me. Everything is damaged. Nothing has the same meaning anymore. There is no real joy in life. You just go through the motions because you’re not suicidal, and you just do things, but your life will never be particularly joyous again … Once this happens you’re going to have a very marginalized life at best. And thank you, United States government. I thought their first mandate was to protect us, but they’re just protecting their donors— and it’s treason.
(Read more from “Father of Son Murdered by Illegal: Pro-Amnesty John Kasich, Marco Rubio Should Be Tried for ‘Treason'” HERE)
00Joe Millerhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngJoe Miller2016-03-14 00:42:312016-04-11 10:51:34Banking On a Brokered Convention, Mitt Romney Is Hitting the Campaign Trail With This GOP Candidate
By Fox News. Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio has dropped to third place just days ahead of a crucial primary in his home state of Florida, according to a CBS News poll released Sunday.
The primary, among five Tuesday, is essentially a must-win for Rubio, who significantly trails front-runner Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in the delegate count. And Rubio’s drop in the poll appears to be another indication that his campaign might soon come to an end.
On Sunday, he continued to criticize the violence at Trump rallies, saying the candidate and protestors share the blame.
“You have a leading contender for president telling people in his audience, ‘Go ahead and punch someone in the face. I’ll pay your legal bills,’ ” Rubio said in Florida. “That’s wrong if our kids did it. That is disastrous if a president does it.” He has also acknowledged that some of the protestors appeared to be paid. (Read more from “Poll: Rubio Drops to Third in Florida, Days Before Big Tuesday Primaries” HERE)
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Rubio Wins District of Columbia’s GOP Convention
By NBC Washington. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida narrowly won the District of Columbia’s Republican convention on Saturday, seizing his third primary-season victory as a critical contest looms in his home state.
The small band of establishment-friendly Republican voters in the nation’s capital also offered a rebuke to GOP front-runner Donald Trump, who failed to win a single delegate. Rubio got 37 percent of the vote and won 10 delegates, and the runner-up, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, won nine delegates with 36 percent of the vote.
Trump was third and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas was fourth, but neither met the minimum threshold to earn delegates.
Earlier this month, Rubio won the GOP caucuses in Minnesota and the party’s primary in Puerto Rico, but he’s still a distant third in the overall delegate count behind Trump and Cruz. (Read more from “Rubio Wins District of Columbia’s GOP Convention” HERE)
00Joe Millerhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngJoe Miller2016-03-14 00:38:122016-04-11 10:51:35Poll: Rubio Drops to Third in Florida, Days Before Big Tuesday Primaries
A group of Republican donors and strategists has been working to persuade former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to make an independent bid for president, according to a memo outlining the plan obtained by POLITICO Florida.
The group has grown increasingly dissatisfied with New York billionaire Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner who has roiled the party’s establishment as he has surged ahead in the polls.
“The reality of the the matter is that we will have President Trump or President Clinton — if we don’t have President Rice,” read the memo, which was written by Joel Searby, a consultant with Florida-based GOP firm Data Targeting.
POLITICO reported last month about a memo that a group of donors was working on with Data Targeting to look at the viability of a third-party run amid Trump’s ascent. The newest memo, sent Thursday, is an update on the firm’s work.
“We have been in touch with Dr. Rice through her chief of staff,” read the plan, which is stamped “confidential.” “She is reluctant at this stage. We are asking for anyone wanting to assist to encourage her to run.” (Read more from “Huge: Here’s Who GOP Donors Are Pushing to Run an Independent Campaign” HERE)
00Joe Millerhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngJoe Miller2016-03-11 00:46:342016-04-11 10:51:39Huge: Here’s Who GOP Donors Are Pushing to Run an Independent Campaign
By Alan Rappeport. The Republican presidential candidates turned to substance over theatrics on Thursday night in a final effort to court voters before they go to the polls in Florida, Ohio and three other states next week, in what could be a decisive Primary Day. There was little sparring and only a few barbs as the contenders largely stuck to talk of trade, terrorism and immigration. Commentators and critics thought a “low-energy” Donald J. Trump seemed to be running out the clock, while Senator Marco Rubio delivered a sharp performance that probably came too late.
“Rubio with a clear and decisive win. At least it makes the next few days interesting.” — Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report
“Trump very ‘low energy’ so far. No joy in it for him unless another of the monkeys is hurling poop his way.” — Bill Maher, host of “Real Time with Bill Maher”
“On policy — Ted Cruz won. On inspiration and oratory Marco Rubio won.” — Todd Starnes, Fox News host
(Read more from “Who Won Last Night’s CNN Debate?” HERE)
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A Good, Substantive Debate That Probably Won’t Change Much
By Jim Geraghty. Do you notice how much better the debates seem with only four candidates?
CNN went for substance, particularly in the opening half-hour, focusing on trade deals, legal immigration visas and entitlement reform. It was generally a good debate, but for the three trying to catch Donald Trump, I don’t think they generated the buzz-worthy, “hey, did you see that?’ moment they needed.
Trump clearly wanted to be more “presidential” this week, and generally demonstrated a quitter, “kindler, gentler” tone. He opened and closed with his best argument – no matter what you think of me, you want and need my voters checking the box for Republicans in November. In between, he was his typical train wreck, with some interesting wrinkles. He said that when he said the Chinese crackdown in Tiananmen Square was a show of strength, he didn’t mean it was a good thing. He clearly had no idea about the details of Cuba policy, talking in circles about how he would insist upon a “good deal.” He insisted the violence at his rallies is all spurred by “bad dudes” who come in to cause trouble, and quickly tried to change the subject to saluting the police. He hates Common Core, and spoke about charter schools as if they were some new idea. After a while, you start to ask, “what is the point of asking questions to a pathological liar who doesn’t know any details?” (Read more from “A Good, Substantive Debate That Probably Won’t Change Much” HERE)
By Greg Richter. GOP front-runner Donald Trump spoke at Regent University on Wednesday then sat down for a question-and-answer session with founder, the Rev. Pat Robertson.
“You inspire us all,” Robertson told the real estate mogul, who has secured the endorsement of Liberty University President Jerry Falwell Jr., and is bringing in evangelical voters to his camp.
Speaking of Secretary of State John Kerry, whose Iran deal Trump has criticized, Trump said, “Kerry did not read the ‘Art of the Deal,'” Trump’s own bestseller. “Probably not the Bible, either,” The Blaze reports.
Trump said he would nominate someone to replace Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia who was pro-life and who embodied the late justice’s conservative temperament. (Read more from “Pat Robertson Endorsed Trump: ‘You Inspire Us All'” HERE)
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Why Did Karl Rove’s Carly Fiorina Endorse Cruz?
By David A. Graham. It’s not just the Republican establishment that’s starting to coalesce around Ted Cruz. It’s the putative outsiders, too.
On Wednesday, former presidential candidate Carly Fiorina endorsed Cruz. “Ted Cruz is a fearless fighter for our constitutional rights,” she said in a statement. “Unlike the status-quo political class in D.C., Ted Cruz didn’t cower when he got to Washington—he stood unequivocally for the American people.”
Fiorina allying with Cruz makes some superficial sense—one outsider endorsing another. But it probably makes the most sense to see Fiorina’s endorsement of Cruz as a statement of disgust with Donald Trump, and a realization that the only candidate with any serious chance of stopping him is the Texas senator.
Throughout her presidential run, Fiorina positioned herself as an outsider—a corporate executive rather than a party creature. That wasn’t exactly true. She had run for Senate as a Republican in 2010 and been an adviser to John McCain in 2008, and as McKay Coppins notes, party insiders encouraged her to run, thinking that it would benefit the party to have a woman and business leader in the race. Running as an outsider was shrewd in a year when Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Ted Cruz were all doing the same, but it wasn’t enough, and she dropped out in early February. (Editor’s note: Karl Rove encouraged donors to pour millions into her 2010 failed senate race – which she lost badly – much to the detriment of competitive tea party races throughout the country. This led some analysts to believe that she was used by the Establishment to drain away much needed resources from real conservatives running elsewhere) (Read more from “Why Did Carly Fiorina Endorse Ted Cruz?” HERE)
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Meghan McCain: Fiorina Endorsement ‘Swayed’ My Opinion of Cruz
By Rebecca Savransky. Meghan McCain on Wednesday said Carly Fiorina’s endorsement of Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz has influenced her opinion of the Texas senator.
“I’ve been hesitant about Ted Cruz and the Carly Fiorina endorsement has swayed my personal opinion,” McCain, the daughter of Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain, said on Fox News, The Right Scoop reported.
McCain said she was a “huge” fan and supporter of Fiorina during her presidential campaign. She noted that Fiorina’s endorsement of Cruz could have a “major impact.”
“I think her most notable moment was when Donald Trump talked about her face and she responded so eloquently during the debate,” McCain said. (Read more from “Meghan McCain: Fiorina Endorsement ‘Swayed’ My Opinion of Cruz” HERE)
00Joe Millerhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngJoe Miller2016-03-10 01:01:292016-04-11 10:51:45Unsurprisingly, Pat Robertson and Carly Fiorina Chose Different Candidates For President; But Their Choices Will Surprise You
Donald Trump has a commanding lead over Marco Rubio and John Kasich in their home states.
A CNN/ORC poll out Wednesday has Trump holding the lead in Florida with almost double the share of voters than Rubio (40 percent to 24 percent). Cruz follows with 19 percent and Kasich has just 5 percent.
The poll of Ohio Republicans has Trump ahead of the Ohio governor 41 percent to 35 percent. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has 15 percent and Rubio is a distant fourth with 7 percent.
Rubio’s campaign is working nonstop to try and win the state. The Florida senator has essentially camped out in Florida, doing back to back events throughout the state . . .
There’s added pressure for both Kasich and Rubio to do well at home since a majority of voters in both states say they should get out if they aren’t able to do well: 71 percent for Kasich in Ohio and 66 percent for Rubio in Florida. (Read more from “Poll: Trump Dominating Rubio in Florida, Kasich in Ohio” HERE)
Bernie Sanders pulled off a shocking upset in Michigan’s Democratic primary Tuesday night, beating Hillary Clinton in a race that some polls had him trailing by double digits and eclipsing the front runner’s earlier win in Mississippi.
Republican front-runner Donald Trump, meanwhile, regained any momentum lost last weekend against challenger Ted Cruz, sweeping to convincing victories in Michigan and Mississippi while sending a message to the Republican establishment to jump on board — or get out of the way . . .
But Trump’s earlier victories were more valuable in terms of delegates. And Tuesday’s results may also seal the fate of Marco Rubio, who appeared once again to finish the night failing to gain any delegates.
Cruz appeared to have beaten John Kasich for second place in Michigan by approximately 8,000 votes. Kasich is counting on a win in his home state of Ohio next week to salvage his campaign.
On the Democratic side, Clinton easily won Mississippi’s primary earlier Tuesday, thanks in part to her overwhelming support from black voters, and likely will pick up more delegates in Tuesday’s contests than Sanders. (Read more from “Sanders Upsets Clinton in Michigan; Trump Notches 2 Big Wins” HERE)
00Joe Millerhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngJoe Miller2016-03-09 00:29:072016-04-11 10:51:47Sanders Upsets Clinton in Michigan; Trump Notches 2 Big Wins
By B. Christopher Agee. Though the Florida senator has put much of his primary election stock in a strong home-state finish, CNN is reporting that some advisers within the Marco Rubio camp are urging the third-place candidate to drop out of the race prior to the March 15 Florida primary. The reports come just days after Rubio won his second primary, picking up all of Puerto Rico’s 23 delegates.
Quoting an unnamed campaign source, CNN reported that Rubio remains optimistic of his chances in the Sunshine State election even if some on his staff are starting to worry.
“He doesn’t want to get killed in his home state,” said the insider, suggesting a loss in Florida could “hurt his political future.”
Contradicting the network’s claims, however, was Rubio communications director Alex Conant, who appeared on CNN’s The Situation Room to call the story “fiction” and “100 percent false.”
Conant explained to host Wolf Blitzer that he “was sitting in a senior staff meeting planning out next week’s schedule” when he saw CNN’s claim. (Read more from “Advisers for This GOP Candidate Are Reportedly Urging Him to End His Campaign” HERE)
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Some Rubio Advisers Say Get out Before Florida
By Jamie Gangel and Tal Kopan. A battle is being waged within Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s campaign about whether he should even remain in the Republican presidential race ahead of his home state primary on March 15, sources say.
Rubio himself is “bullish” on his odds of winning the critical primary, despite some advisers who are less hopeful and believe a loss there would damage him politically in both the short- and long-term.
Publicly, the campaign is maintaining they are still a contender in this race, touting a Sunday win in Puerto Rico’s primary that delivered Rubio 23 delegates. But privately, the campaign is having a debate about whether he should remain in the mix — even for his home state of Florida’s primary. (Read more from “Some Rubio Advisers Say Get out Before Florida” HERE)
00Joe Millerhttps://joemiller.us/wp-content/uploads/logotext.pngJoe Miller2016-03-07 23:30:582016-04-11 10:51:49Advisers for This GOP Candidate Are Reportedly Urging Him to End His Campaign
