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Signs to Watch for if US Believes a Russian Nuclear Attack on Ukraine Is Imminent

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Reflecting the growing concern that Russian President Vladimir Putin may order a limited nuclear attack on Ukraine, the United States and its allies are escalating an already significant standing effort to monitor Russia’s nuclear forces.

At least three Navy attack submarines are operating in the Atlantic Ocean area, their primary mission being to track and sink Russian ballistic missile submarines. Another U.S. attack submarine is berthed at a British naval base in Scotland. U.S. and British signal intelligence aircraft are expanding their Ukraine collection efforts to include Belarus and Kaliningrad. Other more boutique U.S. military capabilities are monitoring Kaliningrad for the same reason. U.S. satellites are almost certainly expanding their monitoring of Russian nuclear forces and storage sites. But partly due to the ground intelligence efforts of NATO allies in Eastern Europe, the U.S. has good visibility into Russia’s nuclear weapons posture. Britain’s GCHQ signal intelligence service also has exceptional insight into the Russian military command. . .

First off, watch the political space. Putin would want to leverage the threat of any nuclear strike to the maximum before actually using a nuclear weapon. Paying close attention to his increasingly hostile rhetoric would thus be important. But we would also see urgent statements from Biden and other world leaders warning of the grave consequences Russia would face if it used nuclear weapons. They would warn Russian commanders and nuclear forces personnel that following any such orders would mean their own personal liability. This narrative effort would seek to increase Putin’s fear that an order to use nuclear weapons might instead result in a palace coup by his own military.

The West would likely threaten a full embargo of the Russian economy. Biden and a number of other allied leaders, though probably not all, might also warn of a U.S. military response. Then there’s Xi Jinping’s China. China might be Putin’s most valuable partner, but it’s desperate to avoid a Russian nuclear strike. Xi knows it would greatly undermine China’s already fraying credibility with the European Union, in particular. Beijing’s public warnings to Moscow would be a bad sign.

We would also expect to see visible signals from the military’s Strategic Command. The so-called “doomsday” airborne nuclear command and control aircraft would escalate their training and readiness activity (this has not yet happened). Alongside the two U.S. ballistic missile submarines that always operate in the Atlantic/Arctic, we might see additional surge deployments from Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, Georgia. Any new deployment of B-2 bombers and the most advanced WC-135R “nuke sniffing” aircraft to Britain would demand attention. Top line: All of these capabilities exist to defeat Russia in a nuclear war. But, considering the Biden administration’s hesitant nuclear posture, related deployments might not occur until a Russian strike appeared imminent. (Read more from “Signs to Watch for if US Believes a Russian Nuclear Attack on Ukraine Is Imminent” HERE)

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US Officials Say Ukraine Behind Car Bomb Assassination of Putin Ally’s Daughter: Report

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By New York Post. US intelligence believes parts of the Ukrainian government gave the go-ahead for a car bomb that killed the daughter of a staunch Putin ally in August, according to a report Wednesday.

Kyiv has unequivocally denied any involvement in the blast that killed Darya Dugina, 29, in front of her father, Putin loyalist and Russian ultranationalist Aleksandr Dugin, both after the blast and in response to the report by the New York Times.

But multiple sources, speaking to the outlet on condition of anonymity, said that the US intelligence community believes parts of the Ukrainian government were complicit in the attack. The sources said Washington admonished Kyiv for the assassination. . .

At the time of the attack, Kyiv denied any involvement.

“We are not a criminal state, unlike Russia, and definitely not a terrorist state,” Zelensky advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said at the time. (Read more from “US Officials Say Ukraine Behind Car Bomb Assassination of Putin Ally’s Daughter: Report” HERE)

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U.S. Believes Ukrainians Were Behind an Assassination in Russia

By DNYUZ. United States intelligence agencies believe parts of the Ukrainian government authorized the car bomb attack near Moscow in August that killed Daria Dugina, the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist, an element of a covert campaign that U.S. officials fear could widen the conflict. . .

The closely held assessment of Ukrainian complicity, which has not been previously reported, was shared within the U.S. government last week. Ukraine denied involvement in the killing immediately after the attack, and senior officials repeated those denials when asked about the American intelligence assessment.

While Russia has not retaliated in a specific way for the assassination, the United States is concerned that such attacks — while high in symbolic value — have little direct impact on the battlefield and could provoke Moscow to carry out its own strikes against senior Ukrainian officials. American officials have been frustrated with Ukraine’s lack of transparency about its military and covert plans, especially on Russian soil.

Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine’s security services have demonstrated their ability to reach into Russia to conduct sabotage operations. The killing of Ms. Dugina, however, would be one of the boldest operations to date — showing Ukraine can get very close to prominent Russians.

Some American officials suspect Ms. Dugina’s father, Aleksandr Dugin, a Russian ultranationalist, was the actual target of the operation, and that the operatives who carried it out believed he would be in the vehicle with his daughter. (Read more from “U.S. Believes Ukrainians Were Behind an Assassination in Russia” HERE)

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Putin: ‘Partial Mobilization’ to ‘Liberate’ Ukraine From ‘Neo-Nazi Regime’

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Following two days of feverish anticipation and speculation on Russian media, Vladimir Putin finally gave his Ukraine address on Wednesday morning at 9 a.m. Moscow time. . .

Over the course of his 14-minute speech, Putin characterized the Ukrainian government and its armed forces as “neo-Nazis” 10 times.

“Respected friends, the topic of my speech is the situation in the Donbas and the course of the special military operation to liberate it from the neo-Nazi regime that seized power in Ukraine in 2014 as a result of an armed coup,” said the four-term Russian president, who in 2020 ushered in constitutional changes that would allow him to remain in office until 2036. . .

“In order to protect our Motherland, its sovereignty and territorial integrity, to ensure the security of our people and people in the liberated territories, I consider it necessary to support the proposal of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff to conduct partial mobilization in the Russian Federation,” he said.

After laying out an extended reminder of his country’s nuclear capabilities, the Russian commander-in-chief concluded that, “It is in our historical tradition, in the destiny of our people, to halt those who strive for world domination, who threaten the dismemberment and enslavement of our homeland, our Fatherland. That is what we are doing now, and it will continue.” (Read more from “Putin: ‘Partial Mobilization’ to ‘Liberate’ Ukraine From ‘Neo-Nazi Regime'” HERE)

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Why Ukraine in NATO Could Be a Nuclear Nightmare for America

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In Washington, D.C., the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is the equivalent of a foreign policy holy sacrament. To listen to many policymakers and foreign policy commentators, you would think NATO is as essential to America as our Constitution, apple pie, or baseball.

Questioning its continued utility in the post-Cold War era — or its further expansion — elicits accusations of being everything from un-American to a Putin stooge. This has made it almost impossible to have a substantive discussion about a military alliance designed to deter the threat of the Soviet Union — a country that hasn’t existed for more than 30 years.

Look no further than the fact that only one senator, Josh Hawley, voted against the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO in June. Hawley rightly questioned whether it was wise to extend America’s security umbrella to two wealthy European welfare states that have been safe and secure as neutral nations for more than 70 years, especially considering other pressing challenges at home and abroad. The bipartisan vitriol hurled at Hawley for his reasonable stance showed that Washington is far from ready to discuss the future of the NATO alliance like adults.

This wasn’t always the case. The United States was a nation founded on a suspicion of permanent alliances, especially with Europe. George Washington in his farewell address advised “to steer clear of permanent alliances with any portion of the foreign world…” and specifically against “interweaving our destiny with that of any part of Europe.” This approach to alliances guided American foreign policy for most of our history and kept us out of the chaos of 19th-century Europe.

There is good reason for our leaders to revisit the wise words of our first president. Just last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded an accelerated accession to NATO, claiming that Ukraine is already a de facto member of the alliance. Due to the collective defense obligations of NATO members spelled out in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, this could mean committing America’s sons and daughters to fight in an ongoing war with a nuclear-armed Russia. (Read more from “Why Ukraine in NATO Could Be a Nuclear Nightmare for America” HERE)

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As Russian Troops Fall Back, Nuclear Fears Advance

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Ukraine recaptured more of its territory from Russian forces Monday amid reports from European media that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be mobilizing elements of his country’s massive nuclear arsenal for potential use on the battlefield.

Senior U.S. military officials would not directly address reports that a Russian Ministry of Defense train responsible for the transport of nuclear munitions is on the move toward the Ukrainian border. The Times of London, citing Polish defense analysts who track Russian nuclear movements, first reported the development.

The Italian newspaper La Repubblica reported that NATO nations are preparing for the possibility that Mr. Putin may soon order tests of Russia’s nuclear-armed Poseidon torpedoes.

Less than two weeks ago, Mr. Putin warned the West that Moscow is prepared to use “all of our available means” to defend Russian territory from Ukrainian attacks. The remark has raised alarm in Washington and across Europe as fears mount that a desperate Kremlin may take drastic action as it loses more ground to Ukrainian troops.

A senior military official was asked repeatedly Monday whether the U.S. has seen any indication that Russia may be moving nuclear assets. The official did not directly comment on Russia’s movements but said the U.S. is making no changes to its positioning. (Read more from “As Russian Troops Fall Back, Nuclear Fears Advance” HERE)

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‘Outright Satanism’: Putin Goes on Lengthy Rant Condemning the West Over ‘Apartheid’, Child Sex Changes

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Russian President Vladimir Putin said the West had fallen for a “reverse religion of real Satanism” in forcing sex changes on children and committing “apartheid” against “savage” populations in a speech on Friday.

He called transgender ideology a “denial of humanity” and “overthrow of traditional values,” marketing Russia’s war in Ukraine as a necessary correction to Western deviance in a lengthy speech after signing decrees to annex parts of Ukraine, Defense One reported. The “racist” West has instrumentalized the war in Ukraine to accomplish “totalitarianism, despotism and apartheid,” he added.

Putin commemorated the “heroes” who died for their right “to preserve their culture, traditions and religion” in what he called a “Nazi coup d’etat” in Ukraine in 2014, also known as the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

He accused the West of fueling the war in Ukraine to achieve a “dream” of weakening Russia and pitting its people, whom the Kremlin envisions as including Ukrainian citizens, against one another “to condemn them to poverty and extinction.”

Western countries’ “insatiability and determination to preserve their unfettered dominance are the real causes of the hybrid war that the collective West is waging against Russia,” Putin said, construing his invasion of Ukraine as a concerted Western campaign to dominate Russia. (Read more from “‘Outright Satanism’: Putin Goes on Lengthy Rant Condemning the West Over ‘Apartheid’, Child Sex Changes” HERE)

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‘We Were Ready to Die’: US Captives ‘Prayed for Death’ on Brutal Ride From Ukraine

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Even after three months of captivity that included execution threats, physical torture, solitary confinement and food deprivation, it was the ride to freedom that nearly broke Alex Drueke, a US military veteran released last week with nine other prisoners who went to help Ukraine fight off Russian invaders.

His hands were bound. His head was covered by a plastic bag, and the packing tape holding it in place was secured so tightly it caused welts on his forehead. Drueke said he and fellow American prisoner Andy Huynh reached their limit in this state during the transit, which occurred in a series of vehicles from eastern Ukraine to an airport in Russia that was surrounded by armed guards.

“For all we went through and all the times we thought we might die, we accepted that we might die, we were ready to die when it came, that ride was the only time that each of us independently prayed for death just to get it over with,” Drueke told The Associated Press in an interview Friday.

“The mental and emotional torture of those last 24 hours in captivity, that was the worst,” he said.

Drueke, 40, is healing: The swelling is going down on his head and he’s trying to regain some of the 30 pounds he figures he lost eating a poor diet. But awful memories remain, and he’s unsure what comes next aside from trying to focus attention on fellow prisoners who remain in Russian hands. (Read more from “‘We Were Ready to Die’: US Captives ‘Prayed for Death’ on Brutal Ride From Ukraine” HERE)

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Why Putin Will Soon Have to Choose Between Losing in Ukraine or Using Nuclear Weapons; Vladimir Putin Set to Claim Wide Swaths of Ukraine After ‘Sham’ Referenda

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By Washington Examiner. Ukraine has both the political and popular resolve to liberate its territory. Thanks to the United States, Britain, Poland, and the Baltic states , Kyiv also has the economic and military means to believe it can achieve its ambition. In contrast, it is increasingly clear that Russia lacks the popular resolve to endure a bloody war. Equally important, Russia lacks the economic and military means to conduct a drawn-out war.

In the coming months, Vladimir Putin will thus be forced into one of two choices. He can end the war by ceding back those areas of Ukraine that his forces occupy. (Ukraine might allow Putin to keep at least some of Crimea under any ceasefire agreement.) Alternatively, Putin can escalate by using nuclear weapons in an attempt to end continued Western support for Kyiv and pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky into a Russian-favorable ceasefire.

What Putin cannot do, however, is continue to wage war in a conventional fashion.

Top line: Putin’s draft of at least 300,000 conscripts — possibly to rise to more than 1 million — cannot reverse his recent record of battlefield losses. That’s because those losses are not the result of manpower shortages per se, though that is a factor. Rather, Putin’s central problem is that his military lacks credible leadership and professionalism and is beset by low morale and terrible logistics . The scale of this challenge is underlined by the inability of Russian forces to conduct even orderly ground retreats, let alone combined arms offensives. As in eastern Ukraine, this has opened Russian lines to high-mobility Ukrainian flanking attacks, which enable Ukraine to retake vast areas of territory while forcing rolling Russian surrenders and abandonment of priceless equipment.

Putin’s logistics problem is only set to grow. Russia, after all, is rapidly depleting its stocks of artillery, missiles, bombs, and other weapons. This is to say nothing of the thousands of Russian tanks, armored personnel carriers, electronic warfare vehicles, air defense systems, and aircraft that Ukraine has captured or destroyed. The Kremlin is desperately attempting to hide this military supply chain crisis, but Western intelligence services are convinced that it is critical. Indeed, one need only look at leaked videos on social media that show Russian conscripts issued archaic rifles being told to bring their own sleeping bags to war. One need only look at the increasingly desperate calls by top Kremlin officials to bolster military production. One need only look at the increasingly ludicrous, if escalatory, rhetoric on Russian state media. (Read more from “Why Putin Will Soon Have to Choose Between Losing in Ukraine or Using Nuclear Weapons” HERE)

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Vladimir Putin Set to Claim Wide Swaths of Ukraine After ‘Sham’ Referenda

By Daily Wire. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to annex parts of eastern and southern Ukraine on Friday, claiming that forced referenda across four occupied regions support Russia’s claim.

Western leaders are scrambling to respond to what many have condemned as a “land grab,” according to Politico. Putin’s move has raised concerns that Russia is committing itself to long-term conflict with Ukraine, and that a resolution to the war may be much farther off than European and North American leaders were hoping.

Russian state media reported Tuesday that Ukraine’s Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions voted overwhelmingly to break with Ukraine and join Russia. The referendum, which local Ukrainian officials said was coerced by Russian soldiers, took place on September 23-27. The results in each region were strikingly lopsided in favor of Russia: 99% in Donetsk, 98% in Luhansk, 87% in Kherson, and 93% in Zaporizhzhia.

Putin said in a television appearance on Thursday that “the formation of a more just world order is taking place,” according to The New York Times. He did not directly address the expected annexation, which covers an area of roughly 40,000 square miles.

“Unipolar hegemony is inexorably collapsing,” he said. “This is an objective reality that the West categorically refuses to accept.” (Read more from “Vladimir Putin Set to Claim Wide Swaths of Ukraine After ‘Sham’ Referenda” HERE)

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Is NATO Closer to War With Russia After Nord Stream Sabotage?

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Russia may have bombed the Nord Stream pipelines earlier this week, but the North Atlantic organization created for collective defense against Moscow will not likely mount a military response, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has pledged a forceful response to “deliberate, reckless, and irresponsible acts of sabotage” that blasted holes in the twin Nord Stream pipelines carrying gas from Russia to Germany. While the organization is bound by Article V of the treaty to go to war if any member nation suffers a direct attack and has all but explicitly accused Russia of orchestrating the attacks, it will likely avoid invoking a military response to Russia, according to experts on NATO and defense.

“First, the pipeline wasn’t working any more, so [the leak] doesn’t change things that much,” Lawrence Korb, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and former assistant secretary of defense, told the DCNF.

In addition, member states may find it impossible to determine whether Russia conducted the attack or ordered one of its proxy militias to do so. “Even if you get 70% that it’s Russia, you’re not going to get 100%,” Korb added.

NATO allies vowed to “deter and defend against the coercive use of energy” and other aggressive acts that fall short of overt acts of war in a statement immediately after the attacks. The organization asserted a “united and determined” response to any deliberate attack on critical infrastructure, including gas installations. (Read more from “Is NATO Closer to War With Russia After Nord Stream Sabotage?” HERE)

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Truth or Bluff? Why Putin’s Nuclear Warnings Have the West Worried; Why Is Russia Urgently Buying Large Amounts of Potassium Iodide?

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By Reuters. President Vladimir Putin’s latest warning that he is ready to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia amid the war in Ukraine has made a troubling question much more urgent: Is the former KGB spy bluffing?

Putin cautioned it was no bluff, and Western politicians, diplomats and nuclear weapons experts are divided. Some say he could use one or more smaller, tactical nuclear weapons to try to stave off military defeat, protect his presidency, scare off the West or intimidate Kyiv into capitulation.

Putin’s warning, which was followed by a more specific threat to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine from an ally, might mean the Kremlin is considering an escalation after Russia annexes four Ukrainian regions which it only partly occupies.

Russia’s parliament is expected to declare the regions part of Russia on Oct. 4. Once that happens the way would be clear, from Moscow’s viewpoint, for a possible defensive strike if it felt the territory was under serious threat.

Breaking the nuclear taboo would be a sign of desperation, however, so whether or not Putin does go nuclear may ultimately depend on how cornered he feels in a conflict which has, thus far, humbled rather than defeated a former superpower. (Read more from “Truth or Bluff? Why Putin’s Nuclear Warnings Have the West Worried” HERE)

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Russia Is Urgently Buying Large Amounts of Potassium Iodide, Compound That Protects From Nuclear Radiation

By International Business Times. The Russian Federation has urgently ordered a large batch of potassium iodide, a chemical compound used to block a type of radioactive material in case of nuclear accidents, according to a Russian government agency.

The Russian government is planning to purchase at least five million rubles or $86,000 worth of potassium iodide. Russia only allocated four days for the procurement procedure. A copy of the order was published on the website of the State of Procurement of Russia, which stressed that Moscow purchases potassium iodide for the population every year.

The drug potassium iodide is used to protect a person’s thyroid gland from the effects of radioactive iodine, which can increase the risk of thyroid cancer in infants, children and young adults when absorbed at high levels. That being said, potassium iodide does not protect other body parts from the effects of other types of radiation.

Potassium iodide is commonly used in radiation emergencies, such as nuclear power plant accidents, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (Read more from “Russia Is Urgently Buying Large Amounts of Potassium Iodide, Compound That Protects From Nuclear Radiation” HERE)

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