Will Obama Just Quit?!
Veteran political analyst Dick Morris says he thinks Obama might “pull a Lyndon Johnson” and not run for re-election. It is a hard thing to believe but Morris’ article in The Hill newpaper this week makes the case. And I disagree.
Morris’ theory goes like this: the economy is in shambles because of (in Obama’s mind) “partisanship” and Obama must spend all his efforts to get the United States back on economic track. As evidenced by Michelle Obama’s dour expressions at the recent joint session of Congress (did you see those frowns? I did and found them very strange!) the Obama’s are not having fun as President and First Lady. Obama has not been polling well and his insistance on a sweeping liberal healthcare reform will cost the Democrats control of the Senate, meaning an Obama second term might face total Congressional control by Republicans. Thus, rather than take on the mighty tasks of fixing the economy AND running for re-election, for an office that would be dogged into the second term by rabid investigating Republicans, he punts now and leaves office with head held high. That is the theory.
I say it won’t happen. Obama is a supremely political person despite the First Lady’s public pouting. While the President is trending down in the polls, and the outlook is increasingly dangerous for him, his support is still very credible, in the 40% range, in the neighborhood of Hillary Clinton’s support during the last Presidential election. Though he can no longer claim to be the candidate of “hope,” especially to the 50% of unemployed high school graduate age young black men in every urban setting across America, he still has a strong voter base. They just might not have cars, insurance or gas money to all get to the polls for him next year.
Barack Obama is a Chicago politician and Chicago politicians don’t just give up. Jesse Jackson, Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr., most influentially, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Illinois Senator Dick Durbin would not let Obama back away from his office – their own success (and largesse) depends too much on his Presidency. It was always a stretch to think that Barack Obama was elected on an image of “reform.” The reality is that Cook County is a petri dish for political corruption and back room deal making that has seen criminal indictments against four – yes four – living Governors of illinois, from both parties, the most recent being the incarceration of former Republican Governor George Ryan and the trial of Democrat Governor Rod Blagojevich. Obama himself has not been tarred with actual claims of corruption, but his administration has, including claims of bribery involving the U.S. Senate vacancy appointment of former Senator Roland Burris as well as using White House political appointments as pay-offs for political favors. Whether Obama is personally corrupt or not, the environment in which he was “brought up” in politics was filled with corruption; and one would imagine that the job of “community organizer,” i.e., union lawyer, in the Chicago area, would not change the inputs much. Obama owes these folks in Cook County a great deal for backing him. And Barack Obama’s “machine” depends too much on him to be President – and fuel their fancies. Even if HE wanted out, THEY would not let him out.
So, unless Obama’s favorable ratings continue their decline in big statewide blue states like California to levels below the popularity of former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, I think he is in it for the long haul, one-term President or not.
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Read More at CA Political Review By James V. Lacy, California Political Review
