What Trump, Cruz, and Sanders Mean for the Political Establishment
On the night of Feb. 15, the split screen that has defined the 2016 presidential race repeated itself with a new urgency. In one half there was Republican front-runner Donald Trump, rallying thousands at an arena in Greenville, S.C., with immigration jeremiads and classic rock anthems. In the other, on a stage 203 miles away in North Charleston, there was Jeb Bush, the pack leader Trump had long since deposed, making his first public appearance with his brother, former President George W. Bush. Here was Jeb, fighting for his political life in a state that had long favored his family dynasty.
This cycle, dynasty hasn’t counted for much. In the debate two days earlier, Trump viciously attacked the elder Bush’s record, marking the first time anyone can remember a GOP poll leader lacerating the party’s most recent President. Trump earned boos for the performance, but the audience in attendance—South Carolina party faithfuls—was so distant from the Republican rank and file that the question “Why are people booing?” trended on Google during the event. What’s more, the businessman’s soaring popularity statewide didn’t suffer. If Palmetto State Republicans didn’t punish that heresy against the last Republican commander in chief, it could spell the last gasp for Jeb, who finished 6th in Iowa and 4th in New Hampshire.
At a mininum, the Feb. 20 primary in South Carolina stands poised to further thin the three-way contest among Bush, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich to consolidate establishment support against Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. In the Nevada Democratic caucuses that same day, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is hustling to blunt the momentum that Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders carried out of his blockbuster win in New Hampshire. But both sides are dug in for a slog that could spill into the summer.
It would be silly, seeing what we’ve seen, to make any sweeping predictions about how this race will end. In the past, advantages like money raised, endorsements, and name recognition were pretty good indicators of election outcomes. If anything, it may be working the other way this time. Bush, whose campaign was an early juggernaut, embarrassingly floundered despite smashing fundraising records (he still easily retains the money lead, with $150 million raised, including Super PAC funds, and $84 million spent). Clinton, with 184 endorsements from governors and members of Congress, has faced a real challenge from Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders, who got only two. (Read more from “What Trump, Cruz, and Sanders Mean for the Political Establishment” HERE)
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