The Republican Party is keeping pace in mail-in and early voting in three key swing states despite polls showing early voting should clearly favor Joe Biden.
Data out of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio indicates that registered Republicans are returning ballots at about the same rate as registered Democrats in the battleground states.
In Michigan, just over 1 million ballots have been returned, 40% from registered Democrats, with the same from registered Republicans. In Wisconsin, 40% of the 711,855 returned ballots have been from Democrats, while 38% have come from Republicans. The GOP actually leads in Ohio, with 45% of 475,259 early ballot returns coming from Republicans, compared to 43% from registered Democrats.
The data contradicts national polls showing Biden supporters overwhelmingly plan to vote by mail or early in person. According to a Pew Research poll released Friday, 55% of voters who plan to cast their ballot in person before Election Day support Biden, compared to 40% who support President Trump.
Biden’s lead is even larger among those who plan to or already have voted by mail, with 69% saying they support Biden, compared to just 27% who support Trump. On the other hand, Trump leads those who plan to vote in person on Election Day, 63%-31%. Pew’s findings echo those of an Axios survey last month, which showed similar splits between those that plan to vote early and those that plan to vote on Election Day. (Read more from “Early Voting Data in Battleground States Shows Trump Outpacing National Polls” HERE)