Title: Trump Leads Biden by Double Digits Among New York Independents, Poll Finds
In a surprising twist for the traditionally blue state of New York, former President Donald Trump has surged ahead of President Joe Biden among independent voters by double digits, according to the latest Siena College survey. This development underscores a shifting political landscape as the 2024 election approaches.
The Siena College survey, conducted from June 12-17, 2024, among 805 registered voters, reveals Biden struggling with a net negative approval rating. Only 42 percent of New Yorkers favor Biden, while a majority of 53 percent view him unfavorably, yielding a net negative rating of -11 percent. This marks a notable decline from May, when Biden’s net unfavorable rating was -5 percent, with 45 percent viewing him favorably against 50 percent unfavorably.
“His job approval rating fell to 45-53%, down slightly from 46-51% last month,” the Siena College report stated. Former President Trump’s favorability rating also took a hit, dropping to 37-59% from 39-56% in May.
Despite Biden leading Trump overall in New York by eight percentage points (47 percent to Trump’s 39 percent), this margin has been shrinking steadily over recent months. In May, Biden led by nine points, and in April, by ten points.
However, the most striking revelation from the survey is Trump’s substantial lead among independents. Trump holds a 17-point advantage over Biden among this crucial voter group, with 45 percent of independents supporting Trump compared to 28 percent backing Biden.
Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg noted the significance of these findings: “While Biden maintains the support of three-quarters of Democrats, Trump has support from 85% of Republicans and leads Biden 45-28 percent with independents.”
The poll also highlights a pronounced gender gap, with men favoring Trump 46-42 percent and women supporting Biden 51-33 percent. White voters are evenly split, while Biden holds a commanding lead among non-white voters. Despite this, Trump has made notable inroads, garnering support from 29 percent of Black voters and 26 percent of Latino voters.
This poll follows Trump’s recent high-profile rallies, including one in neighboring New Jersey that drew over 100,000 attendees, and another historic event in the Bronx. At the Bronx rally, enthusiastic chants of “We love Trump!” and “Four more years!” resonated, signaling potential trouble for Democrats in the upcoming election.
